Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – TOUR Championship
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If you are like me, you probably thought there was no way to top the DJ/Rahm show to finish the 2020 BMW Championship. I was proven wrong as we were treated to another outstanding finish with Patrick Cantlay finishing off Bryson DeChambeau after six playoff holes. The win also earned him the #1 seed and with the new format introduced in 2019, that means he will start the TOUR Championship at -10, a two-stroke lead over the #2 seed.
The course is a Donald Ross-designed par 70 listed at 7,346 yards on the scorecard. The fairways are narrow and tough to hit and it has shown as the field has averaged just 55% driving accuracy over the last five years. The rough is not very penal at just 2.5 inches on average so you can definitely afford to miss some fairways which also puts a lot of importance on a sharp iron game. Taking that further, I will also be looking at the long-iron proximity ranges(175-200 & 200+ yards) as all four Par 3's are 197 yards or longer, and five of the 11 Par 4's are 450 yards or longer. Outside of a strong tee-to-green game coming, I am also looking for players who have been performing on Par 4's as that has been the highest correlation I could find of any stat over the last two years.
East Lake Golf Club
Par 70 - 7,346 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
For this week, I will be looking at my overall Top 4 plays in my player pool. Let's get started.
He comes in at #1 in both my long-term(my sheet) and short-term(FNGC) models and is my pick to win the Tour Championship. I narrowed my short-term model to 12 rounds this week and Rahm ranks 1st in SG: Tee to Green, 2nd in SG: Approach, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in SG: putting, and 4th in birdie or better gained. This will be his 5th trip to East Lake for the TOUR Championship and is coming off a career-best T4 last year. He has some ground to make up but he is my favorite play to pay up for this week.
The next two guys are a bit buried in the FedEx rankings but provide excellent value for DFS in the mid-tier on both sites. Let's start with Xander who has finished runner-up in each of the last two seasons under the new format and also won here back in 2017. I al put together the adjusted scoring for players on my sheet this week and Xander leads every with a combined score of -25! The form hasn't been great coming in but it wasn't really that great in either of the last two so I am not overly concerned. At these prices, he is likely top 3 in ownership but still easily my top PTS/$ play this week.
Like Xander, Rory has a lot of strokes to make up so I won't be betting him outright but love the DFS value. He finished T8 last year and won here in 2019 and is 2nd to Xander with a total adjusted score of -21 and seven strokes clear of anyone else in the field. He is back to his dominant self off the tee which is precisely how he won in 2019 leading the field in that stat after starting the event mid-pack. He can accumulate birdies in bunches and if he can make up three to four strokes on day one, look out for Rory to lead all players in scoring this week. All things considered, he is a great play in all formats.
Scheffler starts the event just one stroke behind Rory and Xander but comes much cheaper and is my favorite value this week. He was very impressive in his first trip to East Lake last year ranking second tee to green in the field and finishing T5 after shooting an adjusted score of -12(2nd best behind Xander). He also comes in with some nice form ranking 8th in SG: Tee to Green, 10th in SG: Approach, 8th in Prox from 200+, and 14th in BoB. I will have a ton of exposure in all formats.