Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 9/3/21
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
There isn't really a top-tier pitcher who I can get behind tonight so will be going with a balanced approach on the mound and it starts with the obvious AL MVP in Ohtani. He is coming off a down start but even giving up three home runs(4 ER), he didn't destroy our lineups as he did tally seven punchouts. He now gets an elite matchup against a Rangers team that ranks dead last(and by a large margin) in almost every offensive category in the second half. At these prices, especially on DraftKings, he is easily my top pitcher on this slate.
If you are looking for upside you might want to look elsewhere but for cash games, Gibson provides us a consistent floor. Since coming over in a trade at the deadline, he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts(three in the other) and has posted a 3.16 ERA. He now faces a Marlins team that has fallen off in the second half ranking bottom five in almost all offensive categories.
The first thing that stands out when breaking down the first base position is all the value that is available. For me, that starts with Jared Walsh who is back under $4K on DraftKings while almost hitting the $6K range earlier this summer. He was the reason the Angels released future HoFer Albert Pujols and while not having a breakout season, he has been solid with 25 home runs and 79 RBI. Given the price and his four-game hit streak, I will have exposure to Walsh in all formats tonight, especially as a cash play on DraftKings.
This isn't the first time we have mentioned Rizzo with his reduced price but this time he is finally performing making this less speculative(at least that is what I am telling myself). he enters the night with hits in three straight and six of his last seven games with three multi-hit efforts and four extra-base hits. The matchup is only average and a lefty/lefty matchup but I am not worried as Rizzo crushes lefties to the tune of a .395 wOBA and 150 wRC+. At these prices, he is in play in all formats.
India has cooled off a little in the short term but is still a -900 favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year and for DFS, his price has also dipped creating a great buy low opportunity. India hits leadoff and enters the night with an elite .381 OBP which gives him a high floor and he also adds the upside for GPP formats with 17 home runs and 81 runs scored. In play in all formats.
While the matchup may not be as good as it was yesterday, I am going right back to Brendan Rodgers who is underpriced on both sites for a hitter in the two-hole in Coors. Not only that, he comes into tonight with multi-hit games in three of his last four and has been terrific in the second half hitting .306 with a .362 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Take the value and run!
Up until this point, we have yet to talk about one of the big-ticket items we should be able to afford with value virtually at every position. Turner is a player I will consider paying up for no matter the price and even at times, the matchup as he is elite in every single offensive area. He enters the night with hits in nine straight and 15 of his last 16 games and gets DeSclafani at the right time as he has struggled to a 6.04 ERA with seven home runs against in seven second-half starts.
I can't call Correa a value play anymore as DraftKings has finally caught up with his price but he is still near the top of my list at the position tonight. He has been terrific down the stretch for the Astros hitting .296 with an elite .371 wOBA and 141 wRC+ since the start of August and has once again been moved up to the three-hole in the lineup. He and the Astros now get a plus matchup against a struggling veteran in Jake Arrieta. Fire up Correa in all formats if you need that small discount from Turner.
What I wrote about him yesterday:
It has been a breakout season for Riley in his third year in the league and he has been even better in the second half posting a .356 average, .446 wOBA, and 180 wRC+. With that said, I found it odd he was third in pricing at the position on this smaller slate with the Braves getting to take their hacks in Coors Field. He is likely chalk but easily one of my favorite plays on the slate in all formats.
He didn't let us down with a multi-hit game and picked up two more RBI but somehow saw his price drop $200 on DraftKings so I am going right back to the well as my top payup at the position.
Jonathan Villar FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - WSH (Sean Nolin) Park - WSH
FD - 11.65 DK - 9
For value, Jonathan Villar ranks very high in my PTS/$ model tonight as his price has not really adjusted to the move up to the leadoff spot. While it has only been four straight games in that spot, he has performed well with hits in all four with two multi-hit efforts, two home runs and four runs scored. He also gets a plus matchup against Sean Nolin who has given up 20 hits and nine earned runs in his first three starts since being called up in mid-August. Villar is in play as a one-off value or as a part of a Mets GPP stack.
The Rays are one of a handful of teams projected for five or more runs tonight but are right up there with the Braves as favorites. It starts with the great matchup against Randy Dobnak who has given up 25 earned runs(7 HR) in five starts(6 appearances) since joining the rotation back in late May. The reason I am targeting the outfielders as my only Rays in the article is due to the prices, especially on DraftKings where both players are under $5K.
Let's start with Arozarena who has become the odds-on-favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year with a monster second half where he is hitting .318 with a .414 wOBA and 171 wRC+. While I trust Arozarena in cash games, I will only be using Meadows in my Rays stacks in GPP as he just hasn't been anywhere nearly as consistent but has a ton of upside and correlates perfectly.
Hard not to go right back to Soler as a core play on DraftKings tonight. I wrote him up as a huge mis-priced play last night as he is hitting second for the Braves, has been red-hot, and gets to take his hacks in Coors Field. The price actually came down $100 so don't overthink it and plug him into one of your outfield spots and I once again love pairing him with Riley.