Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/6/21
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Two pitchers in the thick of the National League CY Young race go head to head on Monday afternoon and while I will have exposure to both in GPP I lean Woodruff in cash games. First of all, he is cheaper on DraftKings which could provide huge on this smaller slate. What really stands out is the current form as Wheeler has struggled mightily giving up 4+ earned runs in four straight. For Woodruff, even with one big dud(6 earned runs @STL), has been terrific with a 3.03 ERA and 30% K rate in the second half. The floor feel much safer making him my top pitcher on this slate.
Given this smaller slate and the elite matchup against the Cubs, I absolutely love the price on Sonny Gray considering he was over $10K in early August. Since two bad starts out of the ASB, he has been terrific posting a 2.79 ERA/3.95 xFIP and 25% K rate over his last seven starts. He now gets arguably his best matchup of the second half as a -165 favorite against a depleted Cubs team. He is my favorite PTS/$ pitcher on FanDuel and my favorite SP2 on DraftKings in all formats.
This almost feels like a DraftKings pricing mistake as Vladdy comes in red-hot yet has seen his price drop to near season-low levels. He extended his hit streak to 13 games on Sunday and if not for Shohei Ohtani doing never-before-seen-things, he would be the AL MVP as well. He now gets to face a struggling Jameson Taillon that has given up 21 hits and 17 earned runs over his last four starts. There is no way the price stays here so buy low while you can.
If paying up for pitching and looking for some value at the position, I will be turning to Josh Bell. He hits cleanup in a plus matchup and comes in hot hitting .313 with a .399 wOBA and 149 wRC+ since mid-August. As a switch hitter, he does have better splits from the right side but is still slightly above average vs. righties and at these prices, I am not overall concerned. In play in all formats.
Whit Merrifield FD - 2B 3300 DK - 2B 5300
Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - BAL
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.83
The Royals are one of my top teams to target tonight and it really boils down to the matchup. They face rookie Zac Lowther who struggled to a 6.53 ERA in 10 AAA starts and has also struggled at the major league level with a 10.80 ERA across four short outings. For Merrifield, it has been a pretty underwhelming season but he has been consistent down the stretch hitting .308 with a 114 wRC+ since mid-August. I will have exposure in all formats.
From a PTS/$ perspective on DraftKings, Jonathan India is once again a core play for me as the price continues to sit in the low to mid $4K range. He appears to be out of his slump as he enters the night with hits in four straight including two multi-hit efforts, two doubles, and a home run. That matchup also lineup up nice as he has an elite OBP(.381) and faces a pitcher who has walked eight batters in his last three starts. To top it off, he also crushes lefties to the tune of a .392 wOBA and 144 wRC+.
Mondesi has alternated days starting but has definitely earned more playing time with hits in all three games since returning from injury. Not only that he has contributed across the board with two stolen bases, one home run, and a run scored in each of those games. The Royals are in a great spot here against a struggling rookie and a struggling bullpen. All things considered, Mondesi is my top shortstop on this slate.
Also Consider: Bo Bichette(TOR) who is scorching hot with hits in 10 straight games including going 6 for 8 to close out the series against Oakland.
Villar came through for us in a big way on Sunday and I am going right back to the Mets leadoff hitter on this smaller slate. The price has come up some but he is still underpriced considering he comes into tonight with hits in 11 of his last 12 games eight extra-base hits and 10 runs scored. He also gets a fantastic matchup against Patrick Corbin who continues to struggle and has given up 4+ earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. To top it off, Villar is also 7 for 14 against Corbin. Lock and load in all formats.
With Villar's form and lower price, this is strictly a GPP pivot for today. The Tigers, while likely under-owned, are in a good spot today facing Bryse Wilson who enters with a 5.22 ERA/5.14 xFIP and has given up 11 home runs in 13 starts. Candelario is having a very solid season with a .280/.357/.448 slash line and while he has fairly even splits for a switch-hitter, most of the power comes from the left side. You are limited to using him at 3B only on DraftKings but on FanDuel you can play him at 1B/3B or utility so this is where I will have the most exposure.
It is crazy to think just how quickly the $5K range on DraftKings has become the "next tier down" in 2021 thanks to the insane offensive surge in baseball. Such is the case and that gives us tremendous value in the next tier down as Nick Castellanos checks almost every box. No other place to start than the splits as he's crushing lefties to the tune of a .392 wOBA, 144 wRC+, and .263 ISO this season. He also comes in scorching hot over the last couple of weeks with hits in 14 of his last 16 games(.361 avg/.441 wOBA) with five home runs and 14 RBI. All things considered, if you can't afford Soto, Castellanos is my top PTS/$ outfielder in all formats.
Others that are high up in my player:
Hunter Renfroe(BOS) who is projected to hit leadoff against lefty Ryan Yarbrough and has a .388 wOBA/145 wRC+ in the split in 2021. I also like the value with Akil Baddoo(DET) who also hits leadoff and comes at a nice value on both sites while the Tigers are in a plus matchup on Monday.