Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday, 9/21/21
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I love this slate! I don't think I've gone through our projection system so quickly and found the guys who I wanted instantly. It feels like we have a ton of great hitters in some fantastic spots and it stuck out like a sore thumb. A lot of those guys are reasonably priced, too, and it makes for an incredible slate. The only real question mark is the pitcher position, but we feel like we have two strong guys to lean on. With that in mind, let's start there!
Zack Attack is the highest-priced player on the slate, and rightfully so. We're talking about a dude with a 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 31 percent K rate. That has turned him into one of the best pitchers in baseball, averaging 23.5 DraftKings points per game. The reason we expect that average to be his floor here is this matchup. Baltimore currently ranks 25th in OBP, 22nd in wOBA, and 26th in runs scored. They literally have 48 wins! How is that even possible? All of that tells us that Wheeler likely has a win headed his way, too, entering this tasty matchup as a -300 favorite.
What is going on with this DraftKings pricing? Most players sitting below $6K are minor leaguers or relievers on limited pitch counts, but Irvin is far from both of those. Irvin has thrown at least five innings in 23 of his 29 starts, generating a 2.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in those outings. That'd be a fantastic game from a sub-$6K player, and we certainly think he can have another one of those against the Mariners. Seattle sits 27th in OPS, OBP, and wOBA, with Irvin entering this matchup as a -140 favorite. Just use him as your SP2 in every lineup you make on DraftKings for your late-night hammer!
Joe Ryan was nearly perfect in his last outing and could continue that success against a calamity like the Cubs.
The Cardinals have skyrocketed up the standings and are now comfortably ahead in the Wild Card race. Goldy is a significant reason why they've been so successful, gobbling up a .348 AVG, .434 OBP, .644 SLG, and 1.078 OPS over his last 36 games played. That's a very long run of incredible play from Paul, and it's even scarier when you throw in his five steals as well. All of that makes him one of the most mispriced players on this slate, especially with Goldy facing a lefty. Paul has a .405 OBP, .580 SLG, and .985 OPS, with the platoon advantage in his favor since 2019. It's not like Anderson is an ace either, amassing a 4.18 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Voit is out of the lineup more often than not, but he's in there at the five-hole whenever they face a lefty. That's what we have here, with Texas throwing out Taylor Hearn and his 4.52 ERA. DK has Hearn as their lowest-priced pitcher on the board, and that's a good indicator of how badly the Yanks will batter him here. Voit will be a significant part of that, providing a 1.010 OPS over his last nine games played. We also mentioned that a lot of that damage came against lefties, with Voit posting much better numbers against them this season.
It's pretty weird how this guy does this every year. Mondesi misses the first six months of every season and then comes in for some September smashing. He's been a Top-3 player in fantasy points per game over the last two years, averaging over 10 DK points per game in both. That's an amazing feat, and it makes him an easy pick whenever he is healthy. He's undoubtedly that right now, swiping seven steals over his last seven games. That doesn't even include his ability to go yard, which is why he's one of the most dynamic players in fantasy baseball. We love all of that since Mondesi has a .979 OPS against southpaws this season, and we certainly wouldn't fade Logan Allen's 7.11 ERA.
Jean, Jean, the Hitting Machine! This guy has always been a favorite of mine, and it's a wonder why he's always so underrated. The slick shortstop has posted a .743 OPS or higher in six straight seasons, getting north of .800 this year. A lot of that damage has come recently, with Segura tallying a .333 AVG, .376 OBP, and .925 OPS over his last 25 games played. We always want to use hot hitters against the O's, throwing out Keegan Akin and his 6.93 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Those horrific numbers are even worse from the left side because Segura has a .387 OBP and .907 OPS against them this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 4300 DK - OF/SS 6300
Opponent - SF (Scott Kazmir) Park - SD
FD - 14.72 DK - 11.13
Does that say, Scott Kazmir? I thought I was old when I saw Asante Samuel Jr this weekend but seeing Kazmir back in the Majors is a whole different ballgame. This guy was an ace a decade ago but has been pitching in Independent ball for quite some time now. This is his first season back since 2016, totaling a 6.43 ERA. That makes a lot of these Padres righties perfect options, especially their best guy! That happens to be Tatis, leading all position players with 11.2 DK points per game. He also has an OBP north of .400 against lefties since his call-up, making him a great piece to a Padres stack.
Torres has had a rough year by his standards, but this pricing is getting silly. Gleyber has still shown the ability to be a fantasy beast, and it's weird to see him priced around a bunch of bench players. We're talking about a hitter with a .795 OPS for his career, posting a career-high with 15 steals as well. A lot of that running has come recently, with Torres totaling a .390 OBP and .823 OPS over his last 10 games played. We already discussed how we want to harvest right-handed hitters against Hearn's left arm, and Torres should be one of them behind his .824 career split against LHP.
Let's keep this San Diego stack rolling along with Mr. Machado. We already talked about how good of a matchup Kazmir is behind his ugly numbers, but we absolutely adore the amount of damage that Machado has put on lefties. In fact, Manny has maintained a .388 OBP, .567 SLG, and .955 OPS against lefties since 2019. That's a heck of a run with nearly 400 plate appearances, making him an easy pairing with Tatis. Machado has been mashing recently, too, collecting six hits and two homers over his last three games played.
Alex Bregman FD - 3B 3900 DK - 3B 4400
Opponent - LAA (Janson Junk) Park - LAA
FD - 14.4 DK - 10.73
Most hitters are appropriately priced, but these sites have forgotten about Bregman for whatever reason. This dude has been one of the best hitters in baseball since his call-up and is currently in the best stretch of his season right now. Over his last 22 games played, Bregman has bludgeoned his way to a .333 AVG, .409 OBP, and .890 OPS. That's not far off of his exhilarating career averages, making it hard to believe he's so affordable on both sites. He's literally facing a pitcher named Junk too, who's never pitched above Double-A before his call-up last week.
Yordan Alvarez FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - LAA (Janson Junk) Park - LAA
FD - 14.98 DK - 11.17
We already talked about how Houston will make Junk look like junk, with the Stros projected for more than five runs in this spot. It's easy to understand why they have such a lofty projection, with an unknown pitcher facing a Top-5 offense. Yordan is a major reason why they're so highly ranked, with Alvarez accruing a .420 OBP and 1.045 OPS over his last 11 games played. All of that doesn't even consider that Yordan gets the platoon advantage here, making him a tremendous two-man stack with Bregman.
Stanton is a regular for me at this point, and he's going to remain in these articles until the final day. The simple fact is, Stanton is swinging a hot stick right now. He's homered in five of the Yankees last 10 games, scolding a laser beam homer on Tuesday night. That's when you know he sees the ball well, and his vision clears up even more against lefties. The southpaw killer has a .380 OBP and .890 OPS against lefties this year and clearly, sees the ball much more comfortably from that side after that scare a few years back.
Let's finish off this San Diego stack with Myers. This guy has been all over the map in terms of consistency, but he's starting to show some flashes recently, posting a .858 OPS over his last 24 games played. We can lean on him here because he gets to face a lefty, accumulating a .381 OBP and .905 OPS against them since 2019. That will likely earn him a prominent spot in this lineup, and we can't overlook the fact that he's this cheap. Stacking Manny and Tatis will get pricey, but getting Myers in there, too, will open things up!