Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 9/24/21
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We have quite the decision to make at pitcher tonight as Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty are making returns from the IL, and Gerrit Cole and Frankie Montas in below-average matchups. For me, I like taking the discount and rolling with Jose Berrios as my top pitcher. He has been a welcome addition to the Jays posting a 3.39 ERA over 10 starts since coming over in a trade. He faces his old team for the second straight start and looked pretty good in the first one limiting them to just four hits. All things considered here, I will have exposure in all formats.
I will be going with a fairly balanced approach at starting pitcher tonight and Dylan Cease is next in line. Outside of one rocky start(7 ER to BOS), he has been consistent in the second half averaging over 5.5 innings per start in the other 11 and does sit with an xFIP(3.60) that is nearly a half run lower than his ERA(4.06). What I have been enjoying the most is the rise in strikeouts as he is striking out(34.7%) 5% more than he did in the first half and that aligns with the matchup as Cleveland has struck out 26% of the time over the last two weeks. I do prefer Cease on FanDuel as he is $700 cheaper than Berrios and I will be pairing them together as my top pitchers on DraftKings.
Buckle up for a heavy dose of the Giants in this article as they visit Coors Field where they have averaged 8.7 runs in six games this season. Let's tart at first base with Belt who, despite a lower average(.263), is having a tremendous season with 26 home runs, a .393 wOBA, and 150 wRC+. He has been even better down the stretch with hits in 15 of his last 18 games(.329/.434/.643 slash line) and now gets to take hacks in Coors. As the 7th most expensive player at the position, Belt is easily my top play at first in all formats.
The Rays are popping in my model tonight as one of the top projected offenses and if you need a punt play look no further. Consistency has definitely not been one of Choi's strengths this season but he comes cheap, hits near the top of the order, and gets a plus matchup against Edward Cabrera who has really struggled against left-handed bats with a9.35 ERA/6.40 XFIP while giving up a .507 wOBA.
The Giants will most definitely be chalk thanks to some of this pricing or mispricing if you will. I say this as not only does La Stella get to take hacks in Coors, but he has hit leadoff for the Giants for the better part of September. The average and consistency aren't exactly what we are looking for from a leadoff hitter or cash play but he comes in with four doubles, three home runs, and 10 RBI in his last 15 games. All things considered, he is my top play at second tonight.
Segura has been fairly chalky recently at his current price but with La Stella in a great spot in Coors, he could come at an ownership discount tonight. He has been consistent all year(.297/.355/.450 slash line) and gets to take his hacks in front of MVP candidate Bryce Harper. He will likely only get one at-bat against lefty Sam Howard but the Pirates bullpen has been very underwhelming lately so I do like the Phillies team total over putting multiple players on my radar. Segura is in play in all formats.
Corey Seager FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Humberto Castellanos) Park - ARI
FD - 14.21 DK - 10.72
With the combo of the Giants in Coors, multiple teams in good spots, and their high prices, the Dodgers are a team that could fly a bit under the radar. Either way, they are in my player pool against Humberto Castellanos who has struggled as a starter and given up 19 hits and 11 earned runs in his last three starts. For Seager, he is my top play on the team as the only one under $5K on DraftKings in the projected Top 5 in the lineup. He has also been terrific in September with an elite .348/.439/.507 slash line and better yet faces a pitcher who has been much worse against lefties. Fire up Seager in all formats tonight and stack him with his teammates as a projected low-owned/high-upside stack in GPP formats.
Javier Báez FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - MIL (Eric Lauer) Park - MIL
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.83
The Mets are essentially out of the race unless some sort of miracle occurs but that doesn't mean we can't find some late season PTS/$ value. We have exactly that with Baez tonight who has is having a down season overall but is at least finishing strong hitting .380 in September with a .470 wOBA and 203 wRC+. Best of all, he absolutely crushes lefties(.393 wOBA/149 wRC+/.277 ISO) and is in the $4K range on DraftKings where I will targeting him tonight in all formats.
Jeimer Candelario FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.51
If not paying up for Kris Bryant in a chalky Giants stack, third base is a bit of a mess tonight. If you are looking for value, Candelario checks almost all the boxes and has likely earned himself a big payday after working on a one-year deal in 2021. The counting stats(HR, RBI, Runs) look very similar to his productive 2018 season but the big difference has been his patience at the plate which has led to a .275 average and .350 OBP. He has also been excellent down the stretch with hits in five straight and nine of his last 11 games. He is in play on both sites with his best value coming on DraftKings.
One more trip to Coors for likely another Top 5-10 owned play tonight at these bargain prices. Wade has hit out of the leadoff or in the cleanup spot for the better part of the season yet has never really seen a price to back that up even with his performance. He has been consistent all year but even better in the second half with a .374 wOBA, 137 wRC+, and .260 ISO. He is one of my top overall PTS/$ plays on the slate. Lock and load!
It has been a disappointing season for Meadows but I just can't ignore the price tonight as the Rays sit right near the top of the implied runs rankings. The other thing that has me on Meadows is the fact he faces a pitcher who has really struggled against lefties giving up a .485 and four of his five home runs through five starts.
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- 1024px-Coors_Field,_Denver,_Colorado,_US: By color line (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons