Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Saturday 11/20/21
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The point guard for the team with the highest implied total on this slate? Sure, why not. Charlotte has turned into a great DFS matchup playing the fifth-worst defense in the league and running the sixth-fastest pace. Trae is still scoring more than 25 points per game on the season and his numbers look nearly identical to last season. He will be a handful around the perimeter for Charlotte and is coming just a bit cheaper than some of the other superstars on this slate.
When the Timberwolves are able to keep the game then Beverley is looking at around 34 minutes and that’s more than enough for him to hit value at these prices. Though he doesn’t excel in any one part of the box score, he’s been able to contribute across it in terms of hitting fantasy value. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 10 points, five rebounds, four assists, and almost two defensive stats despite playing fewer than 30 minutes on average. With some of those games in the blowout territory, it makes sense that his production was churned off. I don’t think that will be the case here and at sub-$5K on both sites, he’s an excellent cash game option.
The Jazz have a good matchup here against the Kings who are middling defense, but also play in the top third in pace. This could represent something like a track meet and there’s a reason the game has the second-highest total on the slate. Mitchell hasn’t had to play a ton of minutes over the last two games because the Jazz have blown teams out. But in close ones, mid-30s minutes are in store for the guard. The price is down a bit, but this is a guy who has a higher usage rate this season than last and is playing fewer minutes because of some game scripts. I think we are getting him at a bit of a discount.
Desmond Bane FD - $4800 DK - $4500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 28.59 DK - 31.26
Bane could be in for higher than normal minutes in this game because the Grizzlies are a little thin at the wing. They are going to be without both Dillon Brooks and DeAnthony Melton in Saturday’s game. That could have Bane playing in the low-30s in terms of minutes and he has been able to get up double-digit shot attempts when that is the case. For the season he’s averaging 14 points and four rebounds per game while shooting a bite worse from three. I love the matchup against a Minnesota team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the league.
Jimmy Butler FD - $10100 DK - $9700
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 53.68 DK - 54.99
I’m much more interested in playing Butler if Tyler Herro is out so we will need to monitor that news on Saturday. Herro sat out last game and is questionable going into this one. The Heat faced this same Wizards team on Thursday and Butler put in 32 points in just 34 minutes. He led the team in shots with 19 and didn’t play the last couple of minutes with the blowout. If Herro is out again then the usage should be there for Butler one more time around.
Kevin Huerter FD - $4300 DK - $3800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.33 DK - 30.28
Huerter is in the starting lineup now for the Hawks with DeAndre Hunter injured and the price is a total joke on DraftKings. He’s coming near the minimum there even though the expectation is that he will run 30+ minutes per game with this group. Two games ago he got injured which buzzed off his run, but he came back healthy last time around. Sure, there is some streakiness around the three-point shooting, but this is a guy averaging 13 points and five rebounds over the last five games, and that includes the one he only played half the game. He’s an easy DraftKings play while in the starting lineup.
Power Forward/ Center
Rudy Gobert FD - $8300 DK - $7900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 46.2 DK - 47.52
We’ve said before that it isn’t always exciting to play boring-old Rudy Gobert, but man if this guy just isn’t one of the most consistent dudes out there. He’s a double-double machine, posting one in six consecutive games. The Jazz have been involved in some blowouts, but close games have him playing in the mid-30s. Sacramento allows the fifth-most opponent rebounds per game, a great sign for Gobert considering that’s his strong suit. And they also get blocked at among the highest in the league as well. Things are lining up well for Gobert to dominate in this one.
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $7200 DK - $6400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 40.7 DK - 41.2
It can be a bit like catching a falling knife when playing Jackson in cash because the minutes and production can be a bit all over the place. Foul trouble and some of the Grizzlies rotations have meant he hasn’t played more than 30 minutes in a game since November 10th against the Hornets. But with Memphis a bit thinner without Brooks and Melton, I think he sees a few more minutes on the wing with a bit of a bump in usage as well. When given the run, this guy has big-time upside and he’s scored 18 or more points in four of his last five games. And the defensive stats can really pile up with JJJ blocking at least two shots in each of his last seven games. In a fast-paced game, I think it’s a great time to take the risk here.
Franz Wagner FD - $5100 DK - $4300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.72 DK - 29.31
Wagner tweaked his ankle early in the game against the Nets which led to him losing some minutes. But he did come back in and close things out. He’s coming way too cheap on DraftKings here and if you can handle the blowout risk against the Bucks you have a good value on your hands. The rookie is shooting better than 37% from three on more than four attempts per game and has been an efficient scorer when given the opportunity. Even playing with the big guys in Bamba and Carter he’s been able to grab more than four rebounds per game while putting up defensive stats as well.
If Daniel Gafford is out again then I think Montrezl Harrell (FD 7500 DK 6500) is still something of a bargain.