Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 11/28/21
Sunday slates tend to be light, and that's certainly the case here. We have just three games making up the night card, with the Los Angeles-Detroit game being a standalone one well after the first two. That will cause chaos for DFS, but it also means you need to have a little exposure to that game. The one we'll be keying in on is the Memphis-Sacramento matchup, though. There's a ton of value with two of the worst defenses in the NBA on display, and that game will be sprinkled all across our lineups!
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We had Fox in Wednesday's article, and he's been treating us with some gems since Luke Walton was fired. It's easy to understand why, with the pace picking up big time. Walton tends to play at a slow pace, while Alvin Gentry loves to have his players run up and down the floor. That's a godsend for a speedster like De'Aaron, averaging 38.5 DraftKings points per game in the two outings since the firing. We expect that form to continue, too, with Fox playing at that level for the final three months of last year. The best part of this play is the matchup, though, with Memphis ranked last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed. Look for Fox to remain a 40-point player from here on out and his price to rise $1,000 on both sites in the coming weeks!
The Ja Morant injury is one of the most unfortunate things to happen in the NBA this season, but it will allow Tyus to take over as the starting point guard in Memphis. That's big news for a guy who was already playing well, with Jones averaging 21 DK points per game in the nine outings he's played at least 15 minutes. He actually had a small stint as the starting PG last season, averaging 28 DraftKings points per game across 29 minutes a night. If you get that from someone this cheap, you're way ahead of the pack. The matchup against Sacramento is superb, too, with the Kings surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Cory Joseph has been underrated for the Pistons and could be a sneaky punt play.
Tyrese Haliburton FD - $6300 DK - $6700
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 34.73 DK - 33.6
You better get ready to see a lot of players from this Kings-Grizzlies game. The simple fact is, it's the game of the day from a DFS perspective. Not only is there a ton of value due to the injuries, but it also happens to be the highest total of the day. These are two of the worst defenses in the NBA, and it should allow all of these guys to thrive. Tyrese will surely be one of them, dropping a season-best 51 DraftKings points in his most recent outing. We don't expect that to be a regular thing, but 30-35 fantasy points are definitely in the realm of possibility. We love that with Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes both nicked up, leaving more usage for Haliburton. Not to mention, Memphis owns a 29th OPRK against opposing guards this season.
De'Anthony Melton FD - $4500 DK - $3700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 26.48 DK - 26.27
Melton is my favorite play of the day. This dude has been a per-minute stud throughout his career and has always provided fantasy value even in a limited role. The versatile guard averaged 1.1 DK points per minute last season and is just shy of that this year. Those are actually below his career rates, and it's far from surprising with the way this man stuff the stat sheet. If you look at the 14 games Melton has played at least 26 minutes since last season, he's averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game. All of that makes him really enticing with Morant out, leading to more shots, minutes and usage for Melton. If all of those things happen, Melton should b a $6K player on both sites. The matchup is the icing on the cake, with the Kings surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.
Fred VanVleet has been cruising all year and could keep rolling against Boston here.
LeBron James FD - $10000 DK - $10500
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 49.53 DK - 50.31
We're going to have more leftover salary here than Thanksgiving Day leftovers with all of the value out there, making King James one of the best plays on the board. The simple fact is, he's one of the best bets for raw points, being a near guarantee for 40-50 fantasy points. Dating back to last season, LBJ has scored at least 31 DraftKings points in all but two games, surpassing 38 DK points in 55 of those 60 games. That's a truly incredible floor, averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in that span. I mean, we're talking about arguably the greatest basketball player of all time, and that alone makes him tough to fade on a three-game slate. Not to mention, you better bet James will be motivated against a Detroit team that got him ejected just last week.
Dillon Brooks FD - $5800 DK - $6100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.55 DK - 31.65
It's tough to know what to expect from Memphis, but you better believe Brooks is going to get up as many shots as possible. With Morant off the floor this season, DB leads the team with a 37 percent usage rate while averaging 1.2 DK points per game. That usage rate is genuinely absurd, averaging about 25 shots per-36 minutes played. You don't see that from many of the five-figure players, and we truly believe he'll be doing a lot of ball-handling as well. That would make him impossible to fade on a large slate against a good defense, but we're looking at a small slate against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Kyle Anderson could see a bump in usage and playing time with Morant out as well.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11500 DK - $11200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 60.5 DK - 61.77
Everything that we said for James goes for Antetokounmpo. This dude is arguably the most reliable player in fantasy basketball, scoring at least 38 fantasy points in every game this season. He pretty much did the same thing last year, and it's led to him flirting with a 60-point average since then. He's been even better recently, scoring at least 63 DraftKings points in five of his last 10 games en route to a 59-point average in that span. All of that is hard to overlook, with Giannis scoring at least 52 DK points in each of his last eight games against the Pacers. That's why we have this lofty 60-point projection, and it would be privy of you to get these guaranteed 50-60 DK points into your lineup, no matter the salary.
Pascal Siakam FD - $7900 DK - $8200
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 40.06 DK - 40.4
We want to get some exposure to this Boston-Toronto game, and it looks like Siakam is the best value of the bunch. This dude has been running the Raptors offense since his return, leading the club in usage rate. That boost in usage makes it hard to believe Siakam sits around $8,000 on both sites, scoring at least 37 DK points in five of his last seven games. That's precisely what his average is in that span, too, making him worth every penny in this price range. The frontcourt is one spot you can exploit Boston, too, playing an undersized Al Horford at center with Robert Williams sidelined.
If Robert Williams is out, don't forget about Horford in an expanded role.
Myles Turner FD - $7100 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 33.52 DK - 31.71
This guy is not getting the respect he deserves. Turner has been one of the best defenders in the NBA for two years now, and he's actually getting his offense to turn around as well. In fact, Myles has scored at least 29 DraftKings points in 13 of his last 16 games, posting a 35-point average in that span. That makes the $6,000 price tag on DraftKings shocking, playing at a $7K level. A matchup with Milwaukee is challenging for most people, but it's not too bad for centers. We say that because Brook Lopez is currently injured, and this club is playing at a Top-10 pace without him. That's perfect for an athlete like this, making him an excellent bet for a double-double and a handful of defensive statistics.
Alex Len FD - $4300 DK - $3500
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 24.37 DK - 23.65
Ewww! You know it's an ugly slate when we have Alex Len in here, but this guy is an incredible value no matter how gross his game can be. He's actually started the last two games with Richaun Holmes sidelined, and it looks like he's in line for another one here. That has allowed him to score at least 17 DK points in four of his last five games, dropping 20-plus in the previous two starts. The most encouraging sign is the playing time, putting in 37 minutes in the most recent win. If you look at the 10 games Len played at least 23 minutes last season, the big man averaged over 31 fantasy points per game. That should be easy to duplicate against the worst defense in the NBA, and it will make him the best value play on the board.
If you have the salary, don't forget about Anthony Davis!