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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 15 Saturday Slate
The 2021 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered with content all week long. Earlier in the week, we covered our top cash game plays and also looked at all the relevant injuries and now it's time to look at some of the top stacks for GPP formats.
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By default, Derek Carr is our top quarterback on Saturday. Baker Mayfield tested positive for Covid, Carson Wentz faces the #2 overall defense in New England, and Mac Jones is coming off a two-attempt performance and is averaging just 20 attempts per game over his last five. Volume has not been an issue for Carr who is averaging 40.1 attempts over his last three games and has been accurate, as well, completing 70% of those passes.
The matchup doesn't jump off the page as the Browns have allowed the 7th fewest passing yards but do rank 20th in DVOA against the pass. Making the matchup more appealing this week is the fact the Browns are not only dealing with injuries but also a C-19 breakout which has both starting safeties and two of their top three corners questionable. Fire up Carr in all formats.
There is much less safety with this pick as Jones is coming off an almost unbelievable three-pass-attempt performance against Buffalo. While that is likely a one-off due to the wind and heavy run gameplan, Jones has still been inconsistent in his rookie season but what I do like is the potential 4-5x upside and his price which allows you to load up at RB/WR/TE. The matchup is also very intriguing as the Colts rank Top 5 in run defense but 17th in DVOA against the pass. It is very risky as the floor is very low but for GPP formats, I am on board considering the upside and ability to spend up elsewhere.
With Derrick Henry out with injury, the often underrated Jonathan Taylor has quickly taken on the "best running back in football" tag, and for good reason. He has rushed for 100 or more yards in seven of his last nine games(117.7-yard average) and totaled 97 or more scrimmage yards in 11 of 13 games on the season. The only hesitancy here is the matchup as the Patriots are the #2 DVOA defense overall(6th vs. the rush) but the good news is they have allowed the fourth-most scrimmage yards(153.9) per game to running backs.
It will take some creativity to fit Taylor with his sky-high price tag but he is matchup-proof and could easily hit and exceed his value on this ultra-small slate.
Nick Chubb FD 8000 DK 7700
Proj Points FD - 15.85 DK - 16.26
Browns now have placed 14 players on the reserve/COVID list the past two days.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 15, 2021
To say the Browns are dealing with some adversity would be an understatement. The good news is that transition has not reached the running back room but the bad news is that Kareem Hunt is doubtful with an ankle injury. With Case Keenum likely under center and no Jarvis Landry, I am expecting a heavy run gameplan where Chubb could easily see 25-30 touches and faces a Raiders defense that allows the 9th most scrimmage yards per game(143.2) to running backs. All things considered, Chubb is my favorite PTS/$ play at the running back position on Saturday.
Rhamondre Stevenson FD 6800 DK 4900
Proj Points FD - 7.82 DK - 8.22
This pick is all going to depend on the status of Damien Harris who was taken out early with a hamstring injury last week. If he were to sit this one out, rookie Rhamondre Stevenson makes an excellent option who has looked very good when given the workload(24 rushes for 78 yards last week, 20 rushes for 100 yards in week 10). The matchup is not one to write home about as the Colts rank 5th in DVOA against rush and in fantasy points to running backs. This would make Stevenson GPP only on FanDuel at his price but still in play in all formats on DraftKings with a price tag South of $5K.
Hunter Renfrow FD 7500 DK 7000
Proj Points FD - 12.96 DK - 16.42
The options are limited at wideout on Saturday so let's start by locking in one of the safest and most consistent wideouts in fantasy this season. Renfrow is a player I have loved all season for cash games as he consistently gives you 5-7 catches and 40+ yards. Well, he has taken it one step further down the stretch as he enters Week 15 with three straight 100+ yard receiving games. He also now has eight or more targets in eight of his last 10 games and 24 over his last two games. That is likely what we see again with Darren Waller out so lock in your chalky Renfrow/Carr stacks in all formats and differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
Jakobi Meyers FD 5900 DK 5000
Proj Points FD - 8.05 DK - 10.18
My second favorite PTS/$ option on this slate didn't even see a target last week but I am counting that as an outlier as Jones only threw the ball three times in the wind. The good news here is that before game against Buffalo, Meyers had seen 14 targets in his previous two games and he also leads the Patriots with a 23% target share on the season. More good news as the Colts have been much better against the run(5th in DVOA vs rush) than the pass(17th) so Meyers should get back to at least his season average in terms of volume and at these prices, that gives him a nice PTS/$ floor with room for upside.
Donovan Peoples-Jones FD 5800 DK 4300
Proj Points FD - 12.55 DK - 14.87
The second-year wideout was already building momentum before the latest Covid news popped up and has become my top value wideout on Saturday. He comes into Week 15 having tallied 70 or more receiving yards and 12 or more DraftKings points in four of his last six games. Now the Browns will be without top wideout Jarvis Landry and while Baker is likely also out, Case Keenum should still find a way to get Peoples-Jones 7-10 targets. I will have exposure in all formats.
Jack Doyle FD 5100 DK 2900
Proj Points FD - 5 DK - 6.11
The tight end position is a landmine this week with injuries and players placed on the C-19 list. Let's concentrate on a healthy body and roll out Jack Doyle who has 30 or more receiving yards or a touchdown in five of his last six games with all three of those scores coming in the redzone. It's a tough matchup but the price is right, at least on DraftKings where he will allow you enough room to spend up for Carr, Renfrow, and Jonathan Taylor.