Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Tuesday 1/11/22
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The Nuggets are going to be without Will Barton in this game, which could open up a bit of usage for some of the other ancillary pieces in the Denver lineup. Playing point guard for this team doesn’t come with the same responsibilities as with others considering so much of the offense runs through Nikola Jokic, but Morris should see minutes at least in the low-30s. And double-digit shots should be in the cards as well. That wasn’t the case last time around in a slog against the OKC Thunder, but in general, that’s the expectation for Morris. The price won’t break the bank and he offers a nice way to save at a weaker position on this slate.
Patrick Beverley should be back in the starting lineup for the Timberwolves on Tuesday and makes for a solid DraftKings play at the low-$5K price tag. I think it’s a bridge a bit too far on FanDuel where he is pushing $7K on this slate. But Beverley does offer a solid fantasy floor considering he scores his points across the box score. On the season, he’s averaging nine points, 5.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and almost two defensive stats per 26.7 minutes. None of those jump off the page, but they do add up and as a starter, he’s mostly been playing more than 30 minutes per game.
The Bulls have one of the best matchups on the slate, facing off against the Pistons on Tuesday. Detroit plays a bottom-third defensive efficiency and runs a top-10 pace, which for this group of games represents one of the better opportunities. Lavine has seen the price come down recently, especially on FanDuel where he’s sitting now in the mid-$7K range. Some of that has to do with the short-term results that have seen him really only scoring and not putting up any other stats along the periphery. Sure, he’s put up 27 points a game over the last four, but in that time he’s also averaging three rebounds and two assists per game. To really capitalize on these prices, he needs to do a bit more than put the ball in the basket. But I still like the price here and think he’s a FanDuel play in particular.
Devonte' Graham FD - $5500 DK - $5600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.53 DK - 32.68
Think the Pelicans would like to have Lonzo Ball back? It sure seems like it. They haven’t gotten close to the production they were expecting when bringing in DeVonte’ Graham, but I do think there is some value to playing this guy on this slate. He should see minutes in the low-30s against the Timberwolves and is coming on the cheaper side on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s averaging close to 14 shots per game over the last five but is struggling from the field (35%) which has driven the price down. Even if he isn’t the world’s best shooter, I do think there should be some regression in this respect meaning we could easily hit value on the prices if the shots just fall in line with his season averages.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $8200 DK - $8700
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 41.69 DK - 44.01
Like Lavine, DeRozan gets one of the better matchups here and has seen the price come down just a little in the short term. He’s still putting up scoring numbers, but with the Bulls getting healthier, they haven’t had to run him quite as many minutes and some of the other numbers have seen a dip as well. That’s fine all things considered and I think we are getting him at a value on this slate. He’s still putting up more than 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists over the last week or so while shooting under his season averages from the field. Let’s but the dip on DDR and stack a few bulls in cash against the Pistons.
Brandon Ingram FD - $8000 DK - $8200
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 40.45 DK - 44.3
This is a pace-up matchup for the New Orleans Pelicans who face off against the Timberwolves who rank fifth overall in that category this season. The latter has been good on defense, but there should be plenty of opportunity for Ingram and company to get up and down the court in this matchup. The Pelicans really need Ingram’s scoring considering their overall lack of creators currently on the roster while Zion Williamson remains on the shelf. Ingram has taken 18 or more shots in three of the last four games though he’s shot poorly from the field (37%) and from three (17%) during that stretch. But the opportunity is there and the price is right in this game.
Power Forward/ Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $11400 DK - $12000
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 62.34 DK - 66.76
I think we are going to have enough room to fit some of the above-mentioned dudes along with Jokic on this slate. Look, the dude is just an animal when it comes to the fantasy production, putting up MVP-like numbers this season despite a supporting cast that’s been more than a little suspect. Over the last five games, it’s been more of the same with Jokic putting up more than 26 points and 15 rebounds in that stretch. He’ll face off here against a Clippers that is very solid on defense and runs at a slower pace. But considering the rest of the options on the slate and Jokic’s ability to operate almost matchup independent, I think we can pay up for his services here and not think twice about it.
Otto Porter Jr. FD - $5100 DK - $4900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.54 DK - 30.14
Draymond Green has already been ruled out of this game meaning we should get Otto Porter in the starting lineup. The latter is coming on the cheaper side though it’s close considering there could be a dip in usage with this starting role. That’s because with the Warriors getting Klay Thompson back in the mix, so much more of the offense is just going to funnel through him and, of course, Stephen Curry. But Porter could push around 30 minutes in the starting role for this game against the Grizzlies. Here’s to hoping we have the starting lineup for the Warriors prior to lock considering the game starts an hour later. But I do like Porter for cash with the assumption that he’s running with the starting five.
Derrick Jones Jr. FD - $3800 DK - $3300
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 20.78 DK - 20.38
If trying to just get a cheap play or two to round out some of the more expensive guys on this slate, I don’t mind taking a stab at Derrick Jones who should still in the starting lineup the Bulls on Tuesday. He doesn’t play tons and tons of minutes in the role, but he is also coming close to the minimum on both sites. He did score nine points and grab eight rebounds last time out in the starting spot and on a per-minute basis he’s also been solid in adding defensive stats this season. I like the matchup against Detroit and if no other punt plays surface, he does help ease some of the salary concerns.
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