Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 3/9/22
It's actually a 12-game slate, and it took forever to digest the player pool. There's also a laundry list of injuries, and numerous changes will inevitably happen before tip.
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This might be the first time I've written up Westbrook all season, but this is the spot to use him. The most crucial factor is that Anthony Davis and LeBron James are expected to miss this game. That means Westbrook can return to the high-usage guard that made him a $10K player in his days with OKC, stuffing the stat sheet at ease. That paired with the matchup makes Russ impossible to avoid, with Houston playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA while ranked dead-last in defensive efficiency. He's crushed them in their three meetings this season, averaging 23.7 points, 10 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game.
Cam has been great filling in for the Suns. They're currently missing Chris Paul and Devin Booker, leaving Payne with all the usage he can handle. He's actually scored at least 39 DraftKings points in three straight outings, averaging 46 fantasy points per game in that span. That's no surprise when you see that Cam averaged 40 fantasy points per game in his three starts for CP3 last season. All of that means he should probably be an $8K player, and it limits any risk from this tough matchup. With all that said, this is the second half of a B2B, so if Payne is rested for some reason, don't forget about Aaron Holiday.
Most rookies tend to get off to slow starts, which was certainly the case for Green. With that said, he's really found his stride recently, scoring at least 28 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games. He's also averaging 34 fantasy points per game in that span, doing a lot more ball-handling for this fast-paced Rockets offense. The best part of this is the matchup, though, with the Lakers ranked 25th in total defense while playing at the third-fastest pace in the NBA. They're also surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing guards, with Green averaging 30.4 DK points per game in their three matchups this year.
Talen Horton-Tucker FD - $4200 DK - $4500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 26.47 DK - 26.53
We already mentioned how Los Angeles might be without their two best players, leaving THT with a massive role. With LeBron and Davis off the floor, THT ranks third on the team with a 22 percent usage rate, ranked Top-3 in minutes and shot attempts. We love that with his recent form, scoring at least 21 DK points in six of his last nine games. That might not sound like much, but it's really all you can ask for from a $4K player, especially a guy who should see his role double here. We also discussed how tasty of a matchup Houston is, with the Rockets ranked dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Immanuel Quickley has been excellent since Kemba Walker was excised from the rotation and remains around $5K.
Kevin Porter Jr. FD - $5800 DK - $6300
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.1 DK - 33.6
Getting to use Porter at small forward is a cheat code. He's the de facto point guard in Houston and is playing some of the best basketball of his career right now. In fact, KPJ has at least 27 DraftKings points in 14 of his last 17 games, averaging 32 fantasy points per game in that span. The matchup with the Lakers is the icing on the cake, though, with LA ranked 25th in total defense while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PGs. That's on full display when you see that Porter has at least 32 DK points in all three of their matchups, en route to a 39-point average.
CJ Elleby FD - $3600 DK - $4200
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.58 DK - 26.72
This guy isn't necessarily going to win you a GPP, but Elleby is one of the best bets out there to reach 5X value. We say that because he's been doing it regularly for this shorthanded team, averaging 21 DK points per game across 31 minutes a night over his last 10 games. Getting 30-plus minutes from a player this cheap is nearly impossible to find, and we have to believe this youngster's fantasy production will keep climbing the more he becomes acclimated with this offense. They're going to need him to do that too, with Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, and Anfernee Simons all nicked up while C.J. McCollum, Norman Powell, and Robert Covington are playing with different teams.
Jayson Tatum has at least 52 DK points in four of his last five games and gets to face a 28th-ranked Hornets defense here.
Pascal Siakam FD - $8300 DK - $9500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 44.11 DK - 44.38
Sia has been a steady option for me all year, and it's hard to understand why he's just $8,300 on FanDuel. This guy has at least 36 fantasy points in 40 of his last 43 games, averaging 45 DraftKings points per game in that span. That's an astounding number from someone in this price range, and he could be asked to do even more with OG Anunoby sidelined. The simple fact is, Sia plays 40 minutes a night, takes 20 shots a game, and posts a 30 percent usage rate on a regular basis. All of that makes him a sensational option against San Antonio, with the Spurs sitting fourth in pace and 26th in points allowed. He killed them in their last meeting, dropping 43 DK points across 27 minutes earlier this season.
Trendon Watford FD - $4100 DK - $5700
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 25.99 DK - 25.06
We just talked about how crippled Portland's roster is right now, but it's made Watford one of their best players. That's led to Trendon playing at least 30 minutes in three straight games, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in all of them. That's a fantastic floor from such a cheap player, especially since he's averaging 33 fantasy points per game in that span. A 33-point average from a $4,100 player is unheard of, and it's going to be tough for Portland to take him off the floor with so many players missing. Utah is not as tough of a defense as it sounds either, ranked 18th in total defense over the last month of play.
Moritz Wagner is a decent punt play after scoring 61 combined DK points over the last two games.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $9400 DK - $10800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 53.25 DK - 55.61
Big Kat has all the confidence in the world since winning the three-point contest, scoring at least 52 fantasy points in three of his last four games. It's easy to understand why, with Towns generating a 29 percent usage rate, stepping up in the absence of Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. We like him whether those guys play or not, but he'd be a lock if they end up sitting. Our favorite reason to use him is this matchup, with Oklahoma City possessing the worst frontcourt in the NBA. Towns has at least 42 fantasy points in all three of their matchups this season, despite playing fewer than 30 minutes a night. He also hasn't taken more than 14 shots in any of those, and that number could double if D-Lo and ANT are out again.
Alperen Sengün FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.99 DK - 33.2
We've had many Houston and Los Angeles players in this article, and it's easy to see why. These are two of the worst defenses and two of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. That has us looking at a 234-point total, which is honestly about 10 points too low. All of that makes this the best game to stack, with Sengun looking like one of the best values. The Turkish big man is averaging 21 DK points per game despite playing just 19 minutes a night. He's been playing much more recently and could get his minutes north of 30 if Christian Wood sits this game out as well. If that is the case, Sengun is our favorite play of the day!
Nikola Jokic is a lock for 60 DK points against the Kings if you have the salary!