Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Playoffs Sunday 4/17/22
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Point Guard / Shooting Guard
This is an interesting series in that, like Boston vs. Brooklyn, it feels like we are getting a much better of 1 vs. 8 than one would usually think possible. That’s because the Hawks just seem like a better version of a bottom feeder than we are used to, and that’s correct. They are going to be a tougher out for Miami than they likely envisioned from working their asses off to get into the one seed. But with this comes the prospect of a lot of minutes from the Heat starters and that should mean a ton of production from Lowry. Over the last nine games of the season, Lowry averaged 18 points, six rebounds, and three rebounds per game, though was able to dial up the dimes later in the season when the Heat got healthier. He’s coming too cheap on both sites and is likely to play a ton of minutes in a close game.
Look, I get that the Bucks are full strength in this which cuts into the fantasy production for all of their big three. But they also get the best matchup against the Bulls which should lead to two of them, at the least, paying value on this slate. Holiday has shown a balanced line throughout the course of the season with 18 points, seven assists, and almost five rebounds per game. One would think, in a close game that we are looking a high-30s in terms of minutes and that should be more than enough to hit value at these prices. Again, I think stacking Bucks is mostly the play here meaning we are going to need a couple of them at least on this slate.
I get that it’s weird to play a guy in cash games who ran 22 minutes per game over the last couple of games of the regular season and scored a total of 0 points in those games. But that’s exactly why we are getting him at a total discount here. It’s likely the Bulls, if they have any chance (and they don’t have much of one) will need a lot of disruptive minutes out of Caruso. He’s able to subsist on fantasy production outside of just scoring, six rebounds, and three assists per game over that span, and he should play a lot of minutes. On a slate it’s tough to find punts, he makes for one.
Strongly consider DeMar DeRozan (FD 8400 DK 8500) who is likely to play a ton of minutes as long as the Bulls can keep the game close.
Khris Middleton FD - $7100 DK - $8100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.06 DK - 42.59
The Bucks have the best matchup on the slate and we might be in line to stack the big three from the team. Middleton is a tough one considering he’s having to share the load with Giannis and Jrue, meaning that there might not be quite the usage you would want at these price points. But he’s coming at a cheaper price point on FanDuel which makes things harder from that perspective. Middleton has been on lock for basically the same stats over the last 3-4 years, averaging 20 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks+steals per game.
Jae Crowder FD - $4400 DK - $4200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.06 DK - 28.6
We are going to need to find any way possible to save on this slate if we are going to hope to get some of the more expensive superstars. Crowder is one way to do that. Is he the most dynamic fantasy contributor around? Of course not. But he’s versatile on defense and can knock down three-pointers which should translate to bigger minutes in the post-season. His per-30 minute averages are right around 10 points and 5.5 rebounds with just about two blocks+steals in there as well. If he’s able to sustain that (or maybe even a little more) then these prices are too low for the playoff slate.
Power Forward/ Center
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11500 DK - $11000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 63.61 DK - 65.4
Giannis really needs no explanation here considering the (many) year’s worth of production he’s put up. At this point, we are only trying to figure out if we have enough ways to save and not really if this dude is actually going to hit his number. This guy averaged 30 points, 11.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and three steals+blocks per game amounting to another transformative fantasy season. Again, we are only trying to determine if we can afford him, not if he’s *worth* it. Considering the matchup against the Bulls who have no real effective way to speed-bump him, this is likely to be an easy matchup for Giannis and the rest of the Bucks.
Onyeka Okongwu FD - $5800 DK - $5100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 29.6 DK - 30.11
With Clint Capela hurt and John Collins still on the shelf, the Hawks could turn to Okongwu for a lot of minutes here. They are now officially short on big bodies, something you desperately need when facing the Milwaukee Bucks. There’s a good chance Gorgui Dieng as well. When Okongwu started this season, he averaged about 32 minutes a game with 11 points and eight rebounds. He wasn’t breaking it out of the box by any means, but he’s able to sustain in this role. The price climbed some on the news of Capela’s injury, but he’s still a bargain on DraftKings especially.
Daniel Theis FD - $4100 DK - $4900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.03 DK - 26.72
Theis will get the start for Robert Williams again while Time Lord is out. And these prices are actually still too low for the center considering what he’s doing in this role. Over the short-term Theis has been playing around 30 minutes a game and averaging 13 points and six rebounds. The Nets struggle some on the interior in certain matchups meaning he could take advantage there. And the real story is the price which is coming sub-$5K on both sites. On slates like this, with playoff rotations getting tighter, this is what amounts to a punt play in terms of savings. When it comes to rounding out lineups, that’s important.