Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Wells Fargo Championship
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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TPC Potomac @ Avenel Farm
Par 70 - 7,160 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Welcome back golf fans. As you can see above, this season's Wells Fargo Championship will look a little different as Quail Hollow will not host the event for the first time since 2003 as they will host the 2022 Presidents Cup. Taking its place for this season will TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm which last hosted a PGA Tour event in 2018 with the Quick Loans National where Francesco Molinari took home the trophy. Despite what his winning score of -21 says, the course does not play that easy and it shows as only seven players hit double-digit under par and the course ranked 14th hardest among the non-major venues in 2018.
Looking a little closer at the course to help formulate a stats model on the sheet, we have a fairly demanding course off the tee with smaller than average fairways and thicker Kentucky Bluegrass rough and water in play on 10 of the 18 holes. Golfers will then approach very small bentgrass greens that run faster than the tour average(listed at 12.5 on the stimp). What this tells me is that you will have to be very accurate off the tee or have an excellent approach game from the rough or possibly both(lol). Molinari's win in 2018 was driven by his elite ball-striking as he hit a field-leading 75% fairways and 86% greens in regulation. With very small and very fast greens, I will also be factoring in that the field will likely be hitting a below-average number of greens which elevates the importance of scrambling/SG: around the green.
When looking at my top stats each week, there are rarely players who check every box so I use those stats combined with course history(limited here & low in my model), current form, and weather to find players who check the most boxes. With that said let's get into the picks.
I am not as high on spending up for McIlroy as I was Rahm last week so I am going to roll with a bit more balanced lineup and it starts with Canadian, Corey Conners. He is always near the top of the list when we are focused on ball striking as he ranks 7th on tour since the start of the season. He also comes in with excellent form having made five straight cuts including a T6 at the Masters and no finish worse than T35. All things considered, Conners is my favorite play in the top tier and I will have exposure in all formats.
Sticking with the balanced approach, we have some terrific options in the 8-9K range on DraftKings but leading the way for me this week is Russell Henley who is a terrific course fit. Like Conners, it comes down to the elite ball-striking as he ranks 6th both on the sheet(long-term trend) and on Fantasy National when looking at the last 24 rounds. It was closer for me between Keegan and Henley but in the end, I side with Henley as he is much more accurate off the tee and when he isn't, he is much more accurate in terms of proximity from the rough than Keegan. I will have exposure to Henley in all formats and don't mind the outright number around 30-1.
Going down the board into the mid-tier of pricing on both sites, we have another excellent course fit in Matt Kuchar. Not only does he thrive at these shorter, accuracy/positioning type courses, he also comes in with elite form in the short-term coming off a T16 at the Valspar, T2 at the Valero, and a T3 at the RBC Heritage. That success has mostly come from his elite around the green(11.1 strokes gained) and putting(15.4 strokes gained) game but he is also accurate off the tee and ranks 12th in this field in Par 4 scoring over the last 24 rounds. All things considered, Kuchar is a staple in my cash lineups and I will also have exposure in GPP, as well.
World Golf Ranking (#114)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
I have been playing a ton of cash games over the last month or so so cut-making has been huge in my analysis(new tab added to the sheet) and Joel Dahmen constantly pops off the page. He has played 14 events this season, making the cut in 12 of them(85.7%) and while he has just four Top 25's, two of them were Top 10's(Pebble Beach, Houston Open) so the upside is there, as well. Dahmen is also a course fit being accurate off the tee, and also accurate on approach from the rough when he misses fairways(9th in rough prox), and he is 8th in this field in birdoe or better %. Put it all together, and he is a player I will have exposure to in all formats.