DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Friday 5/6/22

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Point Guard / Shooting Guard

Luka Doncic FD - $11500 DK - $11600
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 60.08 DK - 64.22

The Mavericks are pot committed, as they should be, to just having this be the Luka show and letting the chips fall where they may. With their current construction, and his talent, there’s really no other way around it. That being said, I’m not sure it has much of a chance in this series, but that’s just going to be the way it is. He’s averaging 40 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds per game through the first two, and that’s even with losing minutes in Game 2 because of the blowout. Phoenix hunted him mercilessly on the defensive end and that will likely continue as well. As it stands it’s just tough to fade him on these two game slates.

James Harden FD - $8700 DK - $9000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 49.39 DK - 52.68

It’s brutal, but we might just need to die on this hill as long as Joel Embiid is out. Harden tallied 41 minutes in Game 2, though struggled from behind the arc (1-5) while shooting 6-15 from the field overall. The price is stuck here which would sure seem like a bargain but Miami is doing everything they can to make it hard on him through the first couple of games. I want to believe the track record is enough for things to turn around, but it’s getting harder and harder to trust.

We need to keep an eye on the Heat guard situation for Friday. Currently Kyle Lowry (FD $6000 DK $6100), Tyler Herro (FD $6400 DK $6900), Max Strus (FD $4200 DK $5300) and to a lesser extent Caleb Martin (FD $3600 DK $3500) are all questionable. How this injury situation shakes out could have a major impact on the two-game slate.

Small Forward

Mikal Bridges FD - $6100 DK - $5900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.91 DK - 32.95

The minutes are just so safe on this guy at this point that you can run him out there just on the projected court time and feel ok that you won’t get completely dusted. They really rely on his defense against Luka and he’s shown the ability to stay out there for as long as anyone in basketball. He’s played the most minutes in the NBA this season between the regular season and playoffs, so there’s that. He’s only taken 15 total shots through the first two games which isn’t amazing, but one would have to think that’s still on the low end considering how much he’s been on the court.

Tobias Harris FD - $8000 DK - $7300
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 41.99 DK - 42.75

In the middle tier, Tobias Harris is coming at a solid price considering the usage uptick he gets with Joel Embiid off the court. The Sixers are still dogs here, but if things can stay close then he should easily play more than 40 minutes. It’s the “keeping things close” part that’s been a struggle but this is still a guy averaging 24 points, five rebounds, and two assists through the first two games without even pushing the run to the max. He got after it on the defensive end last game as well. He’ taking 18 shots per game so far in this series and I expect that to continue as long as Embiid is off the court.

Power Forward/ Center

Bam Adebayo FD - $8500 DK - $8100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.15 DK - 47.1

As predicted, Bam was dominant once again versus the Sixers in Game 2 with Philly having no real way to stop him in any way shape or form. They are very small and the Heat have been able to take advantage of that for the most part. Adebayo is averaging 24 points and 10 rebounds through the first two games and that’s without really being asked to play tons and tons of minutes because of relative blowouts. If Philly can keep the game even remotely close I think his run does trickle into the mid-to-upper 30s and then he’s an even better play at these prices.

Jae Crowder FD - $5400 DK - $5000
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.65 DK - 27.6

Crowder remains one of the few “bargains” on these slates considering he’s still coming in the mid-tier of pricing. He was excellent relative to his salary in Game 2, finishing with 15 points, seven rebounds, three assists and some defensive stats as well. Because these games haven’t remained all that close, the minutes for some of the Suns has gotten buzzed off, but moving back to Dallas if the Mavs can stay in this then I do think we see Crowder play mid-30s minutes and offer even more upside.

Paul Reed FD - $4400 DK - $4900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 22.54 DK - 20.48

Wouldn’t be shocked if Reed got the start in this game with the Sixers desperate to try anything new and him outplaying DeAndre Jordan’s minutes 25 to 13 in Game 2. Reed was fine enough, getting more than 19 FanDuel points in that stretch. And if he started (and could stay out of foul trouble) then there would actually be some upside on these prices. Those are a lot of ifs but man does Philly just need to change things up here in order to have any chance (which is slim to none anyway).

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