Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – AT&T byron Nelson

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    The Course

    TPC Craig Ranch
    Par 72 - 7,468 Yards
    Greens - Bentgrass

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Previous Winner(TPC Craig Ranch)

    • 2021 - K.H. Lee(-25)

    This week the PGA Tour heads back to TPC Craig Ranch for the second straight year as it will host the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson. It was K.H. Lee breaking through for his first career win a year ago with a winning score of -25. In fact, six players in total made it to -20 or lower and the course ranked 5th easiest on Tour during the 2020-21 season. This year's event has a strong field at the top led by World #1 Scottie Scheffler and three others(JT, SPieth, Burns) ranked inside the Top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings.

    The course is a Par 72 that is listed at 7,468 yards on the scorecard but while it has a ton of length, it also has easier than average fairways to hit combined with average to larger-than-average green sizes. This had the field hitting over 65% of fairways and over 70% of greens in regulation last season which then puts emphasis on Proximity and those golfers who can get a hot putter on these bentgrass greens.

    Let's dig in and take a look at some golfers that will be in the forefront of my player pool this week.

    Top Targets

    Justin Thomas
    World Golf Ranking (#8)
    Vegas Odds (12/1)
    Draftkings ($10,600)
    FanDuel ($11,900)

    Looking at the top-heavy field this week, I will be building the majority of my lineups stars and scrubs and will have lots of exposure to both Scheffler and Thomas who are ranked #1/#2 in both my short-term and long-term models. I lean JT slightly for article sake because he is slightly cheaper on both sites and gets the nod from the stats model ranking 2nd in SG: Approach, 1st in Fairway Proximity, 19th in Proximity from 200+, and 1st in Par 4 scoring, Par 5 scoring, and Birdie or Better %. Lock and load in all formats.

    Will Zalatoris
    World Golf Ranking (#28)
    Vegas Odds (22/1)
    Draftkings ($9,400)
    FanDuel ($11,200)

    Right behind Scheffler and JT in the model this week is Willy Z who may not be chasing his first career PGA Tour win for much longer. It starts with the elite ball-striking as he ranks #1 both short-term and long-term in the stat and that has made him one of the most consistent golfers on Tour as he has made nine of 11 cuts this season with three Top 10's and six finishes of T26 or better. The other key stat this week when breaking down the approach shot further is long iron proximity and good news as Willy Z ranks 2nd in my model there as well. All things considered(price included), Zalatoris is one of, if not my favorite play of the week.

    Adam Hadwin
    World Golf Ranking (#105)
    Vegas Odds (45/1)
    Draftkings ($8,000)
    FanDuel ($9,500)

    Speaking of consistent golfers, we will dive right into my Canadian of the week, Adam Hadwin. Since missing the cut at the season-opening Fortinet Championship back in September, Hadwin has not only made 12 of 14 cuts but comes in red-hot with three Top 10's in his last four events(T26 in the other). This run is driven by some elite iron play as he has gained three or more strokes in all four of those events and ranks 4th in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. At these prices, Hadwin is my PTS/$ play this week.

    Kurt Kitayama
    World Golf Ranking (#130)
    Vegas Odds (110/1)
    Draftkings ($7,400)
    FanDuel ($9,100)

    I was quite surprised to see Kitayama so high in all my models this week until I dig into the numbers. It has been a wild ride for him overall this season but when he is making cuts he is all over the leaderboard and flashing huge DFS upside at his price, at least on DraftKings. Much like Hadwin, the current run of good play is driven by tremendous iron play as he ranks 3rd in SG: Approach and better yet 5th and 3rd in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards. There is a good chance he is chalky on DraftKings this week but I will still have equal to or more exposure than the field in all formats.

    Austin Smotherman
    World Golf Ranking (#311)
    Vegas Odds (250/1)
    Draftkings ($6,600)
    FanDuel ($8,100)

    After an understandable slow start to his PGA Tour career in the fall, Austin Smotherman has been consistent in 2022 making seven of nine cuts with three Top 25 finishes, one of which came last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Like the others before him in this article, his form and this pick are driven by a strong iron game as he has gained strokes on approach in seven straight events where it's tracked and is Top 50 in this strong field over the last 24 rounds. Standing out even more, however, is the long iron play as he is 27th in Proximity from 200+ yards and that will definitely help on this long track with six Par 4 holes over 450 yards and three of the four Par 3's over 200 yards. I love the price here and will have exposure in all formats.





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