Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 6/13/22
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To say Alek Manoah has lived up to the hype of being drafted 11th overall just three years ago would be a huge understatement. He is now 16-3 in 31 major league starts and while he has lost some of the elite K upside we saw last year, he has more than made up for it with control walking just 4.8% of batters(10th best in baseball) which has resulted in an elite 1.81 ERA(3rd best). It is about the matchup tonight as he faces a below-average Orioles offence and is the biggest favourite on the slate(-308). With pricing, there is a more challenging decision to make on FanDuel for top pitcher but on DraftKings, back under $10K, Manoah is my top arm on this slate.
The Giants are carrying a ton of momentum into Monday after sweeping the Dodgers over the weekend and look to stay hot at home against the AL's worst team. Alex Wood takes the bump and has been working hard on lowering that ERA(4.23) lately as he has allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts, also lowering his xFIP to a very promising 3.12 on the season meaning more positive regression is likely on its way. There isn't a ton of upside here as the Royals don't K a lot, especially against lefties(17.7%) but we are getting the second-biggest favourite on the slate at a mid $8K price tag making Wood my top SP2 on DraftKings in all formats and in serious consideration as top cash pitcher on FanDuel.
There is no shortage of plays at first base tonight and as much as I want to load up on Vlad here(I am a homer), I can't ignore the price tag on Olson. While the average(.251) is still not where he would like it, he has been better recently, especially from a fantasy production standpoint with six doubles, three home runs, and 15 RBI over the last two weeks. What really stands out is the matchup against Josiah Gray who has looked dominant at times against righties but struggled against lefty bats with a 5.74 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, and .377 wOBA against. All things considered, Olson is my top play at first tonight.
Luis Arraez FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 8.04 DK - 6.29
Not far behind in my rankings in that same price range is Luis Arraez who continues to get better at the plate each year and is on his way to obliterating his career-best in a lot of areas. He comes into tonight hitting a cool .400 since the middle of May thanks to 13 multi-hit games and he has also scored a whopping 26 runs in that span(2nd most in baseball) while averaging 9.8 DK/12.5 FD points per game. He is in play in all formats tonight with his best value on FanDuel where he has multi-position eligibility.
Ozzie Albies FD 3200 DK 4800
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.06
The Braves are the hottest team in baseball winning 11 straight games with the offence playing a huge part as they sit 3rd in runs scored and 4th in wOBA during that stretch. Their prices have definitely adjusted on DraftKings but there is still a lot of value here starting with Albies who enters the night with hits in 12 of his last 13 games. He is a switch hitter and while the numbers are slightly better from the right side, the hard contact is nearly 10% higher (36.5%) from the left side. As the 5th and 10th most expensive play at the position on DraftKings and FanDuel, Albies is easily my top play at second.
Drafted in the first round back in 2018, Gorman has taken some time getting to the majors but it appears he is now here to stay. After posting some monster numbers at AAA to start the year, he got the callup in mid-May and through 20 games is hitting .270 with three home runs and a terrific .358 wOBA/134 wRC+. He has also been moved up the lineup and has been hitting in the two-hole consistently over the last week. I do prefer Albies on FanDuel at the same price but if you need the savings on DraftKings, Gorman is in play in all formats.
Also Consider: Ketel Marte(ARI) who has been scorching hot since mid-May with a .349/.411/.523 slash line
Bo Bichette FD 3900 DK 5600
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 12.81 DK - 9.86
Like most nights, the shortstop position is loaded and more so now that Bo Bichette has started to hit. It was definitely two completely different months as Bo hit just .213 in April and since, has hit .301 with an elite .389 wOBA, 154 wRC+ with eight home runs and 24 RBI. The biggest change has been patience at the plate as the K rate has dropped a whopping 6% down to 21% in that span which included two three-walk games, the first of his career. If paying up tonight, it is close between Swanson and Bichette and it really comes down to which team you want more exposure to in your builds. Both are elite play in all formats.
Carlos Correa FD 3900 DK 4400
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 8.99 DK - 6.81
While Bichette and Swanson are both in an excellent spot tonight and the top plays on FanDuel, we just can't ignore the huge value with Correa on DraftKings tonight as he still remains in the mid $4K range(??). It's like they priced him for a big slump but it has been anything but for Correa who has hits in 13 of 14 games(8 multi-hit efforts) since returning from injury pushing his average over .300 for the season. He also faces a below-average pitcher in Flexen who has reverse splits and is worse against right-handed batters. On DraftKings, Correa is our top PTS/$ play and stacking him with Arraez is one of my favourite two-player stacks tonight.
Both Riley and Machado are elite pay-up options at third base tonight but the system leans Machado and I tend to agree because of the elite splits. Overall, Machado sits second to only Aaron Judge in WAR(a measure of a player's value in all facets) and against lefties has been a beast with an insane .442 wOBA/90 wRC+/.351 ISO on the season. Provided a lot of people will be stacking Braves, Machado also likely comes in low owned giving us some leverage in this spot, as well.
At this point, you would think the DFSR offices are lined with Ty France signed memorabilia with how often he appears in our content. In all seriousness, however, France is having a breakout season as he enters Monday night with a .325 average(5th best) and with one of the lowest K rates(12.5%) in the league, is getting on base at over a .400 clip. With a mid-tier price tag on both sites, France is a top PTS/$ play at any position on this slate.
I am going to pair these two elite outfielders together tonight as there is one glaring similarity between them. While they are fairly priced on FanDuel, it appears DraftKings has been drinking again as they are the 11th and 14th most expensive outfielders tonight and there are only 10 games in play.
Let's start with Soto whose average(.236) probably scares most away but not me as he has still been terrific for fantasy with 13 HR, 28 RBI, and 35 runs scored while crushing right-handed pitching to the tune of a .401 wOBA and 158 wRC+.
It is a similar story for Buxton who is hitting just .231 on the season but is starting to heat up with hits in 11 of his last 13 games with six home runs and an elite .442 wOBA and 195 wRC+ during that stretch. He also gets a plus matchup against Flexen who I mentioned earlier, is worse against righties.
We are never short of value in the outfield so group a couple of our favourites together. I will start with Thomas he is arguably the top PTS/$ play on the slate given his new role as the leadoff hitter and makes even more sense if considering Soto who I mentioned above. Since being moved up the lineup at the start of June, all he has done is tally hits in seven of nine games including six multi-hit efforts and 12 runs scored. Lock and load in all formats if he remains in the leadoff or two-hole tonight.
Up next is Gurriel who could be a bit sneaky considering his spot down in the Jays loaded batting order. I haven't given much love to the Jays overall even in a great spot here and it comes down to price and this is where Gurriel comes in as both sites have yet to adjust for his hot streak. He is currently riding a seven-game hit streak which includes five multi-hit efforts and three extra-base hits. You probably don't need to force him unless you are loaded up elsewhere and need the salary relief but either way, a nice value in all formats.