Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 6/23/22
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After three to four years of steady trips back and forth between AAA and Atlanta, Kyle Wright seems to have found his spot in the Braves rotation. Even coming off a bad start where he gave up five earned runs, he still enters Thursday with a terrific 2.94 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, opponent .213 average against, and with seven K's in each of his last three games has increased his K rate to 27.4% on the season. The matchup is only average against the Giants but given the other options, Wright is easily my top pitcher on this slate.
Steele had to wait even longer to get his shot in the big leagues after being drafted way back in 2014. He made his debut last year and broke into the rotation down the stretch and that is where he has spent the start of 2022 posting a 4.27 ERA and 3.99 xFIP. While those numbers don't stand out, he has been better as of late allowing just four earned runs over his last three starts(19 IP). The upside isn't great(20% K rate) but the matchup is above-average as he faces a Pirates team that is bottom three against lefty pitching. At his value price, Steele is my top SP2 on DraftKings today.
While the Rockies' splits on the road are among the worst in the league they have scored 22 in their last four away from Coors and also get a plus matchup on Thursday. They will look to salvage a game of the series against Braxton Garrett who has struggled to a 4.65 ERA through three starts while really struggling against righties giving up a .390 wOBA and .471 SLG %. Enter Cron who is off to a career-best start hitting over .300 with 17 home runs and 52 RBI. The price is getting up there, especially on FanDuel but all things considered, Cron is my top play at first today.
The catcher position is usually one I like punting but the Contreras brothers are making that hard in 2022. I have finally found a spot to write them up together and it comes down to their eerily similar numbers and especially in the split against lefties. They aren't just tops among catchers, they are Top 5 in the league against lefties tallying some insane numbers(.500+ wOBA/234+ wRC+ for both). I don't think we need to force them in cash games but have a ton of upside here and are in play in all formats.
The Twins currently lead all teams in implied runs on this slate and no better place to start than at the top with the leadoff hitter who is having himself a bit of a breakout season in 2022. He was a career .313 hitter coming into the season and is hitting .355 so far this year but the big change has been the production as he has tallied an elite .399 wOBA and 165 wRC+. He has also done all this while struggling against lefties and that also shows you how good he has been vs righties(.404 wOBA/194 wRC+). He is a top at second and also has multi-position eligibility on both sites making him even more valuable today.
Brendan Donovan FD 3300 DK 4300
Opponent - MIL (Jason Alexander) Park - MIL
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.43
There have been a ton of standout rookies in 2022 but one that is flying under the radar a bit is Brendan Donovan of the Cards. He will likely never push into the Rookie of the Year conversation with a lack of power but he is a terrific contact hitter who doesn't strike out much(16.7%) which has resulted in a very impressive .316 average and elite .422 OBP. This has vaulted him into the two-hole for the Cards and tonight they get a plus matchup against another rookie in Jason Alexander who has allowed 7+ hits in all four starts and has more walks(9) than strikeouts(8). Fire up Donovan in all formats.
Let's stick with the Cards top of the lineup as it ranks out as one of my top stacks on the night. It comes down to the matchup against rookie Jason Alexander who is playing with fire and overdue for some major regression from his 2.42 ERA. I say that as he has allowed seven or more hits in all four starts while walking(9) more than he has struck out(8) and has also allowed seven or more hard hits in each start, as well. For Edman, he hits leadoff and has been very consistent in June with hits in 18 of his last 20 games. I will have exposure in all formats.
Also Consider: Dansby Swanson(ATL) who gets a tougher matchup but should be a nice lower-owned pivot who has been good against lefties and red-hot overall or Amed Rosario(CLE) as a value option who has also been hitting well as of late(.432 wOBA/188 wRC+ last 14 days)
Third base is loaded tonight but with JRam's price and Riley's matchup, it makes it pretty easy to side with Arenado as the top play at the position. I talked about the Cards terrific matchup above and for Arenado, he has seemingly returned to his early-season, MVP-like form. He comes in with multi-hit games in four of his last six with two doubles and three home runs pushing his slash line up to .278/.348/.508 on the season. I look for the Cards to roll today with Arenado as one of my top overall bats on the slate.
I will admit, Jon Berti was completely off my radar to start the year but his red-hot bat has grabbed my attention and I hope I am not too late to the party. he was hitting just .250 heading into the month of June then exploded and comes into tonight with hits in 18 of his last 21 games and while there is little to no power, he is hitting leadoff now and has 15 stolen bases in the month. He likely comes low-owned but makes a terrific start to a Marlins stack.
Back to the Rockies in the outfield and I group them together as both Joe and Daza check the same boxes. Both are cheap, both have plus splits against left-handed pitching, and they hit 1st/2nd in the lineup. Joe was out of the lineup yesterday but comes in with hits in four of his last five including three multi-hit efforts and has a .369 wOBA/124 wRC+ against lefties. Daza comes even cheaper and has been even better as of late with hits in five straight and 10 of his last 11 games with six multi-hit efforts. They are among my favourite two-player stacks in cash games and I will combine them with Blackmon and Rodgers in GPP formats, as well.
We have even more value on the other side of this matchup as the Marlins face a below-average arm in Kyle Freeland who enters the night with a 4.46 ERA/4.479 xFIP. For Soler, it has been a bit of struggle on his new team after winning the World Series with Atlanta last season but the good news is that he is heating up with hits in six of his last eight games and one thing that has never left is the power stroke(13 HR). Avisail Garcia is also in his first year with the fish and is more of a punt play if wanting to load up elsewhere. He hits 4th-6th in the lineup and has hits in four of his last five games with three multi-hit efforts. That is more than enough boxes checked off at his price.