Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/2/22
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It was looking like we are going to get a ton of aces on this slate, but Yu Darvish is pitching the first game of the doubleheader against the Rockies and Jacob deGrom is likely on a pitch count in his first game back. That leaves us Corbin Burnes at the top of the list. But luckily, he might be all we need. He’s having a Cy Young-worthy season with 11.55 Ks per nine, a 2.31 ERA, and 2.78 xFIP. The wins haven’t exactly followed, but he’s a -253 road favorite against the lowly Pirates. We can play him without hesitation.
Without Darvish or DeGrom, SP2 gets a little bit trickier. From a peripherals standpoint, Gausman has been as good as almost anyone on the mound this season, rocking a 6.4:1 K:BB ratio. His 2.76 xFIP is better than the 3.30 ERA and if anything he’s gotten a little unlucky with the BABIP against and LOB% this season. He isn’t a huge favorite against the Rays, but the latter only have a 3.3 implied run line and the park really keeps the power in check.
Pete Alonso FD 4000 DK 5800
Opponent - WSH (Cory Abbott) Park - WSH
FD - 13.93 DK - 10.41
The Mets have the highest run line on the slate for Tuesday, coming in at 5.6 against Cory Abbott. It should be mostly a bullpen game for the Nationals. Alonso has been excellent this season with an .888 OPS and 26 home runs. He’s on pace for his best power season yet and the 27-year-old has kept the K’s under 20%. He’s expensive on DraftKings for sure, but the Mets are the stack to spend up on.
If you are looking to go a little cheaper on DraftKings then Mountcastle isn’t a terrible option. He should move into the third slot in the lineup now that the Orioles have traded Trey Mancini to the Astros. He’s basically a home run-or-bust kind of guy, but he does have 14 dingers on the season. The Orioles are in an okay spot against Spencer Howard.
The Twins have the second-highest implied run line (as of right now) on the slate behind the Mets. So we are going to want to get some of their bats in the mix as well. Polanco isn’t likely to reach the 33 home runs from last season, but he’s still putting up solid stats with a .763 OPS, 14 home runs, and an excellent 15% walk rate. Manning hasn’t shown he’s been able to consistently get K’s for his entire career and the Twins are in a good spot here.
I much prefer Polanco here, but if you are looking to pivot then Semien makes an okay option. He’s been able to get the OPS out of the total dumpster after starting the season about as bad as possible. But things are picking up here and from a fantasy perspective, it hasn’t been all terrible. He still has 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases while only striking out 15.6% of the time. The BaBIP has done him a bit dirty, but he could be up for a solid final couple months of the season.
Again, like some of the other Mets, Lindor is expensive on this slate which causes some problems considering you will likely have to pay up for pitching. But from a cash game perspective, he makes a safer play because of how he scores his points. Lindor has hit safely in 17 of the last 18 games, has 17 home runs and 10 stolen bases, and is tough to strikeout. That all lines up as a guy who isn’t likely to totally burn you here.
If not going with Lindor, then Correa is a fine enough pivot coming about 20% cheaper than the Mets’ shortstop. He’s put up healthy numbers with a .783 OPS and 14 home runs this year. Though the K’s are up a little bit and the walks are down, it isn’t to alarming degrees. I like the matchup against Manning who has struck out fewer than five batters per nine through his first 100 major league innings.
Ok, here’s the deal: third base is horrible on this slate. It’s really a rough scene and I don’t like any of the options really. Either they are too expensive for their matchups like José Ramírez (FD $4500 DK $5800) or Manny Machado (FD $4000 DK $9600) or they kind of stink.
I think we are going to end up going cheap here with less-than-ideal options like Luis Urías (FD $2800 DK $4000) or Willi Castro (FD $2300 DK $2000) on DraftKings. There’s also Yoán Moncada (FD $2400 DK $4800) who is cheap on FanDuel, but has completely stunk this season. That being said, the White Sox are still hitting him second in the lineup for some reason.
Marte should, once again, be hitting second in the lineup for the Mets. He’s actually a reverse platoon guy for his career with a better OPS and wOBA against righty pitching. The Nats are going to spread the mound time here but that doesn’t affect Marte all that much considering he’s been good in both sides of the platoon. Like Lindor, we get some power and speed on the base paths as well.
Buxton has tailed off since the beginning of the season for sure, but there are still plenty of reasons to play him here on Tuesday. The guy has 26 home runs on the season and an .846 OPS. He strikes out a ton, that’s for sure with the 30.6% K% becoming somewhat untenable. But when we can square him up against a pitcher who doesn’t generate strikeouts like Matt Manning, then we are grabbing him in an ideal spot.
Eloy Jiménez FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.46
AJ Pollock FD 2300 DK 3800
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 11.82 DK - 8.97
These guys are coming very cheap on FanDuel and should be hitting in the middle of the order against Brad Keller. The White Sox have a 4.9 implied run line, one of the higher on the slates and though Pollock and Jimenez aren’t overwhelming in terms of fantasy production, it’s hard to pass up sub-$3K salaries here. I do think both are a bit too expensive on DraftKings so I won’t be targeting them over there.