DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/1/22

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Pitchers

Shane Bieber FD 10200 DK 9000
Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - BAL
FD - 39.93 DK - 21.86

After giving up six runs in his first start of the second half, Bieber has been a force for the Guardians holding opponents to just seven earned runs over his last six starts while averaging 26.1 DK/46.1 FD points per game. While the K rate has dropped a bit in 2022, it has also picked up in the short-term as he has tallied eight or more in four of those six starts and faces an O's team that has lost two straight while scoring just two runs and striking out 19 times(32%). All things considered, Bieber is our top projected pitcher and an elite play in all formats.

Spencer Strider FD 10000 DK 9500
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 47.01 DK - 25.99

It's a close race for the NL Rookie of the Year between two Braves with the odds leaning towards Spencer Strider who has been phenomenal, especially in the second half. He comes into Thursday's action having held opponents to one earned run in five of six second-half starts(2.51 ERA/2.60 xFIP) and shown a ton of upside striking out 34% of batters in that span. What is even more incredible is the fact he is putting up these numbers with pretty much two elite pitches(fastball/slider). On Thursday, he gets another plus matchup against the Rockies who are a bottom-three road offence(.29th in wOBA & wRC+) and a bottom-five offence overall in the second half. Fire up Strider in all formats.

Catcher/First Base

Matt Olson FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - ATL
FD - 14.2 DK - 10.58
Travis d'Arnaud FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - ATL
FD - 10.5 DK - 8

The Braves are once again topping our projections as a team with an outstanding matchup on Thursday. They will face a struggling Chad Kuhl who has posted a 9.39 ERA/6.03 xFIP over his last seven starts while giving up a whopping 11 home runs. My exposure to the Braves starts at first base with Matt Olson who remains affordable on both sites, mostly due to the lack of consistency on a day-to-day basis(.252 average) but there is no denying the upside as he entered Wednesday with 27 home runs and 87 RBI. At these prices, he is my top play at first.

Hitting right behind Olson is catcher Travis D'Arnaud who comes at a bit of a buy-low considering he was in the mid $5K range not too long ago. It's not even like he has been bad as he entered Wednesday hitting .333 with a .439 wOBA/182 wRC+ in August. He is easily our top catcher on this slate.

Joey Meneses FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - OAK (Ken Waldichuk) Park - OAK
FD - 8.52 DK - 6.51

After taking over 10 years to make it to the majors, Joey Meneses is making waves since joining the Nats at the start of August. He comes in with hits in 21 of his first 23 major-league games for an incredible .348/.383/.618 slash line. The price is going up quickly on both sites but Meneses is hitting second in the lineup and gets a matchup against a rookie pitcher and bottom-five bullpen in Oakland. If looking to leverage off Olson at first base, Meneses is a great option today and I will have exposure in all formats.

Second Base

Luis García FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - OAK (Ken Waldichuk) Park - OAK
FD - 7.78 DK - 6.06
Tony Kemp FD 2400 DK 2800
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 8.79 DK - 6.77

Second base is pretty ugly today so let's jam in some value that will allow us to load up on pitching and some big bats. Let's start with Luis Garcia who has hits in four straight games since being recalled by the Nats with a double and a home run over the last two. He also gets a plus matchup against Ken Waldichuk who is making his debut today and struggled giving up 20 hits and three home runs in his last four appearances at AAA. Should he have a short outing it also plays into the Nats' hands as the A's have a bottom-five bullpen.

On the other side of this game, we get Tony Kemp who may only be second base eligible on FanDuel(OF on DraftKings) but is a top value in the system, either way. He hits leadoff for the A's, comes in with hits in five of his last six games, and gets a plus matchup against Paolo Espino who has given up 6+ hits and 3+ earned runs in five of his last six starts(6.21 ERA). Both of these players are in play for me in all formats on Thursday.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.56

The system is once again very high on the Red Sox offence and it makes sense as they come into this series with the Rangers having scored over five runs per game over their last seven. One of the keys to the offence has been Xander Bogaerts who comes in with multiple hits in six of his last seven games pushing his average up to .308 on the season. Tonight he and the Red Sox get a plus matchup against Glen Otto who comes in with a 4.79 ERA and even worse 5.15 xFIP on the season and to make it even better, he has been worse against righties(.348 wOBA). The fact Bogaerts is fifth in DK pricing and 3rd in FD pricing on this small slate easily makes him our top shortstop.

Bobby Witt Jr. FD 3700 DK 5300
Opponent - CHW (Johnny Cueto) Park - CHW
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.32

I am a little surprised to see Witt's price rise this fast but he is finally starting to look like the player and top prospect he was drafted as back in 2019. He comes into Thursday's action with hits in 10 of his last 11 games including three doubles, a triple, and four home runs for an average of 12.2 DK/16.2 FD points per game. He gets a decent matchup against Johnny Cueto who has finally seen some regression with an xFIP close to two runs higher than his ERA. Witt won't be a core play for me in cash games but makes an excellent leverage play in GPP formats.

Third Base

Austin Riley FD 4100 DK 5700
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - ATL
FD - 14.47 DK - 10.96

On the main slate, third base is absolutely loaded and likely a place you are spending up for an elite bat. Riley gets the nod in the article solely because he is the cheapest of the three(Devers/JRam the other two) on DraftKings but you can't go wrong building around either of them. Riley has been very up and down in August but the good news is that he finished strong with hits in four straight including his 32nd home run last night. He also gets a plus matchup against Chad Kuhl who has posted a 9.39 ERA/6.03 xFIP over his last seven starts while giving up a whopping 11 home runs. Riley is a building block in all formats.

Also Consider: Rafael Devers(BOS) who is struggling but absolutely crushes righties or Leury Garcia(CHW) as a punt play on the early slate at min price and in a plus matchup against a Royals bullpen game

Outfield

Alex Verdugo FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.33
Tommy Pham FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEX
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.92

I mentioned the system loving the Red Sox tonight and not only are they red-hot but also very affordable to stack without sacrificing top pitching. It starts at the top of the lineup with Pham and Verdugo who have been extremely consistent lately. Let's start with Pham who comes in with hits in 18 of his last 20 games with four home runs, 15 RBI, and 15 runs scored. For Verdugo, he was moved up into the heart of the order after the all star break and since then is hitting .336 and getting on base at a 38% clip. Stacking these two value outfielders with Bogaerts is my top stack of the night and in play in all formats.

Michael Harris II FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - ATL
FD - 13.07 DK - 9.99

Harris has surprised almost everyone outside of the Atlanta organization(maybe some of them as well) with an incredible rookie season which has him in the Rookie of the Year conversation with teammate Spencer Strider. Through 84 games(320 PA), he has put together an eye-popping .298/.344/.515 slash line and shown a tremendous combo of power(13 HR) and speed(16 HR). He was hitting 9th for the longest time but has got a bump up the lineup over the past couple of games. Should he remain there, he will be a top PTS/$ play tonight in a plus matchup.

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