Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 11/23/22
The injury reports are laughable right now. You could scroll through this lengthy player pool and count over 100 players on the injury report. There are some big-name players too, and we anticipate more getting ruled out before the 7ET buzzer. Denver, Detroit, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Sacramento are all playing the second half of a back-to-back set, which will cause more mayhem to an already chaotic slate. We're going to bank on some of those absences, so let's get started with the greatest shooter of all time!
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Chef Curry has been playing a different game recently. The greatest shooter of all time has at least 40 DraftKings points in all but one game, with the one stinker being a 37-point blowout. That means his season average is nearly 60 DK points per game in the other 15 outings, averaging 32.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 1.2 steals. That's the most stat-stuffing we've ever seen from this former MVP, and we're not worried about him facing a Clippers defense that's missing Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Curry has also scored at least 63 fantasy points in three of his last six matchups with LA.
It feels weird to recommend Melton at this price, but it's impossible to fade this guy under these circumstances. Philadelphia has lost Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, and Joel Embiid to injuries, leaving Melton as the primary ball-handler. That's awesome for a guy who's been a per-minute stud throughout his career, averaging 1.3 DK points per minute. This increased role has led to Melton scoring 43 and 48 DK points in the last two games without those guys. We expect him to reach that 40-point total again here, with Charlotte sitting 19th in points allowed. As long as Melton plays the 35-40 minutes we anticipate, he should be at least $8K on both sites.
Anfernee Simons FD - $8300 DK - $7600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 38.68 DK - 41.15
Here we are with another injury fill-in. Simons was already amid a breakout season before Damian Lillard (calf) got injured, but he's an All-Star caliber player in this expanded role. In the last two games without Dame, Simons has combined for 98.5 DraftKings points. We saw him average over 40 fantasy points per game when Lillard was out last year, and it looks like he's even better this year. That makes him a heck of a value in the $8K range, especially since he's looking at 35-40 minutes, 15-20 shots, and a 30 percent usage rate. Cleveland is a concerning matchup but look for Simons to be motivated against a backcourt with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Collin Sexton FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.88 DK - 31
It's been a slow start for Sexton in his debut season for Utah, but an injury to Mike Conley could be just what the doctor ordered. This guy was stuck on the bench behind the veteran, barely playing 20 minutes a night. In the first game without Conley, Sexton started and played 28 minutes. He also took 13 shots, and this guy has shown the ability to be an $8K player in that sort of role in the past. Sexton has played at least 28 minutes in 123 games since his rookie season, averaging 34 DraftKings points per game. That would be absurd from a sub-$5K player, and it seems more likely here since he faces a Detroit team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency.
Tobias Harris FD - $8400 DK - $7800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 42.9 DK - 42.89
We're slightly worried about Toby playing in the second half of a B2B, but he's one of the best plays on the board if he does suit up. We already discussed how Philly is missing Maxey, Harden, and Embiid, which is almost all of the team's usage. Toby has a team-leading 34 percent usage rate with those three off the floor. He's already averaging 32 fantasy points per game with all of those guys, and we truly believe he'll have a 40-point floor in this expanded role. Facing Charlotte is sensational, too, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing forwards. That was on full display when Harris had at least 36 DK points in three of their four matchups last year.
Harrison Barnes FD - $5900 DK - $5300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.79 DK - 26.23
Barnes has been inconsistent all season, but he's been one of Sacramento's key cogs in this seven-game winning streak. The veteran forward has scored at least 29 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, generating a 34-point average in those outings. That's the stud we used to see, and it makes him a bit too cheap, below $6,000 on both sites. Getting to face Atlanta isn't too bad either, playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA. They also own a 20th OPRK against opposing small forwards, and he'll have one of the more favorable matchups with De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis swallowing up so much attention.
Gordon Hayward (FD $6400 DK $6300) needs to do more with LaMelo Ball injured, and it's strange to see him so cheap after dropping 34 DK points in back-to-back games while playing nearly 40 minutes a night.
P.J. Washington FD - $6600 DK - $5800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.86 DK - 31.37
I don't understand why Washington remains so affordable. This youngster has been volatile throughout his career, but it feels like he's in the middle of a breakout year. The Kentucky product has scored at least 34 DK points seven times this season while flashing a 56-point ceiling. That has his season average at nearly 30 fantasy points per game. That's tough to find from a $6K player, and it's clear he's stepping up in the absence of LaMelo. Facing Philly is usually tough, but Washington should benefit with Embiid sitting on the sidelines. In any case, he still posted a 28-point average against the Sixers in four matchups last season.
Al Horford FD - $5500 DK - $5400
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.68 DK - 31.4
Horford let me down on Monday, but I'm going right back to the well. The big man missed all nine of his shots in that ugly showing but would have provided his usual 30 DK points if he lived up to his 50 percent career shooting rate. We're willing to overlook that stinker because Big Al has at least 26 DK points in eight straight games before that while amassing a 34-point average in that span. That's all you can hope for from a $5,500 player, and this guy played at an $8K level when Robert Williams was out last season. There's also a chance Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart sit here, making Horford an even better value.
Nikola Jovic (FD $4500 DK $4100) should see an extended role, with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent all on the injury report.
Bam Adebayo FD - $8800 DK - $8200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 38.56 DK - 38.68
Adebayo is my favorite player in the NBA with his elite hustle on both ends of the floor, but that's not why he's in here. The big man is our favorite center because he will be the focal point of Miami's offense. This guy was already averaging 38 DK points per game when this roster was at full health, but that's going to be his floor with Butler, Herro, Vincent, Strus, Dedmon, Yurtseven, Oladipo, and Highsmith all on the injury report. That's led to Bam scoring at least 45 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, and it's scary to think how good he can be in this playmaking role. Not to mention, Adebayo has at least 33 fantasy points in nine of his last 11 matchups with this subpar Wizards defense.
Rudy Gobert FD - $7200 DK - $6500
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 38.77 DK - 39.21
It's been a disappointing debut season in Minnesota, but this price has dropped way too far. The Defensive Player of the Year candidate is still averaging over 34 DraftKings points per game, despite taking just a handful of shots game. That alone is a great total from a $6,500 player, and we've seen Gobert hover between $8,000-$9,000 for the majority of his career. We anticipate him creeping closer to that the more he becomes accustomed to this offense, particularly in a matchup like this. Indiana ranks 28th in points allowed while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
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- Stephen Curry: AP Images