Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 2/26/23
It's strange to have half of the games not featured on the main slate, but that's what we've got here! That's common for Sunday slates, though, because the NBA loves to spread these games throughout the day. We're just going to focus on the four games beginning at 7ET because that's when most sites provide their largest prize pools.
We have some of the worst defenses in the NBA suiting up among these eight teams, and it should lead to a fun card! With that in mind, let's get started with the three-point champion!
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Damian Lillard FD - $10500 DK - $11400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 50.16 DK - 52.67
It's tough to predict the highest-scoring player on a slate, but Dame has to be one of the top picks on the board. This sharpshooter has scored at least 41 DraftKings points in 19 of his last 20 games, generating a 55-point average in that span. He's scoring nearly 40 raw points per game in that stretch, carrying this offense without Jusuf Nurkic. He's also done most of that damage with Anfernee Simons healthy, and it's scary to think how high his usage will be with Simons sitting this game.
A matchup with Houston is the icing on the cake, with the Rockets ranked 28th in total defense while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PGs. That's led to Lillard scoring at least 46 fantasy points in seven of their last eight meetings!
Jordan Poole FD - $8000 DK - $8500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 41.38 DK - 43.79
It's been fun watching Poole run this offense in the absence of Stephen Curry. Poole is actually leading the team with a 32 percent usage rate when Curry is on the bench, averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game in those outings. The boost in shot attempts, assists, and usage is what's allowing Poole to thrive because stepping into the Chef Curry role would benefit anyone.
A matchup with Minnesota is magnificent, too, with the T'Wolves ranked fourth in pace and 20th in total defense. They're also allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs, with Poole providing a 36-point average in their two matchups this year.
Isaiah Joe (FD $5300 DK $3900) started for SGA on Friday and scored 40 DK points across 36 minutes.
Anthony Edwards FD - $9400 DK - $9500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 48.38 DK - 49.37
This price tag is creeping up, but ANT has earned it with his recent play. What's made him so good is the fact that Minnesota is handing Edwards this offense on a plate, trading away D'Angelo Russell at the deadline. That's earned ANT more ball-handling duties, which is impressive since his usage has skyrocketed since Karl-Anthony Towns got injured.
That's led to ANT scoring at least 32 fantasy points in 46 of his last 48 games, posting a 45-point average in that span. That average should be easy to reach against Golden State, who rank 27th in points allowed while posting a 25th OPRK against opposing SGs. In their five matchups since the start of last season, Edwards is averaging 44 DK points per game.
Josh Giddey FD - $8000 DK - $7300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 43.66 DK - 45.08
Giddey has been great no matter who's been in OKC's lineup, but he should do everything in the absence of SGA. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the league leaders in usage, and we have to assume the Thunder's offense will be run through Giddey in this spot. That's clear by his team-leading 27 percent usage rate with SGA off the floor, averaging 1.1 DK points per minute in those circumstances.
We love that when examining Giddey's recent form, averaging 38 DraftKings points per game since the end of November. He could have a 40-point floor in this matchup, with Sacramento sitting 24th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed.
Cam Reddish (FD $5400 DK $4100) is starting and playing 30-35 minutes a night for this shorthanded Portland team.
Luguentz Dort FD - $5900 DK - $4600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.27 DK - 29.99
Let's keep the Oklahoma City stack rolling with Dort. We expect Dort to be one of the focal points of the offense with SGA out, posting a 26 percent usage rate when the superstar is on the sidelines. That's excellent news since Dort has 36 DraftKings points in back-to-back outings, scoring at least 26 DK points in four of his last five games. That's right on par with his 26-point average for the year, making it hard to understand why Dort remains so affordable. This is one of the best matchups on the court for the Thunder, too, with the Kings surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this year.
Kyle Anderson FD - $5500 DK - $5400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.76 DK - 32.88
Anderson is not an exciting option from a fantasy perspective, but his stat-stuffing ways make him one of the best values out there below $6,000. Slo-Mo has been starting ever since KAT got injured, averaging 29 DK points per game since the big man went down. That average should be even higher because KA has three injury-shortened duds in that same span. The back issues that were holding him back appear to be a thing of the past, with Anderson scoring 34 DK points per game across his last three outings. Facing the Warriors is wonderful, owning a 26th OPRK against opposing forwards this year.
Jalen Williams (FD $6100 DK $6100) has been one of the best rookies in the NBA this season and should be asked to do a ton in the absence of SGA.
Draymond Green FD - $6800 DK - $6800
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0
It looks like Draymond will return to action here, and the former All-Star has quietly had a great season in Golden State. Green has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in 20 of his last 24 games, totaling a 34-point average in that span. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$7K player, especially since Dray is averaging 39 DK points per game in his two matchups with Minnesota this season.
That's no surprise since the T'Wolves play at the blistering pace mentioned above while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Most people will fade Green with his injury status, but hopping on that low ownership adds even more value!
Jabari Smith Jr. FD - $5600 DK - $5800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.24 DK - 28.95
It's been a rough start for this rookie, but this big man is finally starting to roll. Smith has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in five straight fixtures, averaging 31 fantasy points per game in that span. That's the potential we've been waiting to see, but it's far from shocking since he's being asked to do more with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr both nicked up. Blowouts have also held him back at times this season, but this is one game that could stay close.
We say that because Portland ranks 27th in defensive efficiency ratings. If we get the 35 minutes we expect from Jabari, he shouldn't be sitting below $6,000.
Trendon Watford (FD $4500 DK $3400) has been playing 20 minutes off the bench recently and was a $6K player at the end of last season. With Simons and Nurkic out and Josh Hart being traded, Watford should play 20-25 minutes regularly from here on out.
Domantas Sabonis FD - $9600 DK - $9900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 46.17 DK - 48.69
Sabonis isn't quite as good as Jokic, but these big men do the same sort of things. The Kings have decided to make Sabonis the focal point of their offense, averaging nearly 50 DraftKings points per game this year. His recent form is what's really impressive, scoring at least 42 fantasy points in 34 of his last 37 games.
Domantas is also flirting with triple-double averages in that span and could post another one of those against Oklahoma City. In his last four matchups with the Thunder, Sabonis is averaging over 55 DK points per game while accruing triple-double averages. That's terrifying since the Thunder own a 23rd OPRK against opposing centers.
Rudy Gobert FD - $7900 DK - $7700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 42.75 DK - 43.77
Rudy got off to a slow start in Minnesota, but the big man has been crushing ever since Towns got injured. That's led to Gobert generating a 44-point average across his last three outings. He's been doing that for longer than a week, though, accruing a 38-point average in the previous 17 games he's finished. A few injuries hurt him in that stretch, but Rudy should feast on the glass against a 27th-ranked Warriors defense. In their three matches last year, Gobert averaged 15.3 points and 19 rebounds per game. He did that damage despite recording a block, and a 20-20 game feels like a realistic possibility with the way he's playing right now.
Mason Plumlee (FD $6200 DK $5100) averaged over 30 DK points per game as a starter for Charlotte and should return to that role here with Ivica Zubac expected to sit.
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- Damian Lillard, Raul Neto: (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)