Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 4/2/23
We're down to the final week of the NBA season. There aren't many more chaotic times in the sports world because we have so many things to worry about. With that said, I've been zoned into the NBA since Day 1 because basketball is my passion. We have to admit that this time of the year can be frustrating, though, because the injury reports are ridiculous. We'll bank on some of those absences here, but let's get started with the best point guard in the NBA.
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This sounds crazy to say, but Dallas is on the verge of missing the postseason. That means they will lean on their superstar which was on full display when Luka collected 42 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists on Saturday. That might look like an outlier line, but Doncic leads the NBA with 61 DraftKings points per game. Not many players even have that sort of ceiling, and it gets even higher since the Mavs are fighting for their playoff lives. A matchup with Atlanta won't deter him from adding to those absurd averages, with the Hawks ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 25th in points allowed.
The Spurs are trying their best to tank down the bottom of the standings, but they've kept Jones as their starting point guard. It's a bit of a surprise, but it makes him tough to avoid since Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are both missing this game. Even with those guys in the lineup, Tyus has at least 24 fantasy points in nine straight games. He's also got a 31-point average in that span, which is brilliant for a sub-$6K player. The fact that Vassell and Johnson are out should guarantee Jones more usage, minutes, and shot attempts, which looks even better since he faces a Sacramento team that sits 28th in total defense. In the last game he finished against the Kings, Tre tallied 16 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $10500 DK - $9800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 52.13 DK - 51.55
Oklahoma City is one of the final teams trying to sneak into the postseason, and they will ride their horse to get in. That's Gilgeous-Alexander, who's averaging a career-high 50 DraftKings points per game. The All-star also has at least 40 fantasy points in 32 straight games, generating a 52-point average in that span. That's tough to overlook with so much volatility on this slate, especially since the Thunder are fighting for their lives. Phoenix can be a challenging matchup, but SGA has 53 and 62 DK points in their two most recent matchups.
Skylar Mays FD - $5000 DK - $4100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 24.48 DK - 26.04
The Trail Blazers are tanking harder than any team right now, picking up just a handful of wins over the last two months. It's really evident when peaking into the training room, with Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Jusuf Nurkic all sitting out the remainder of the season. That's left Mays as one of the only ball-handlers left, totaling 28 DK points across 30 minutes in his Portland debut. That's quite the performance, and it will be tough to keep this guy off the floor with so many key players missing. A matchup with Minnesota makes him even more enticing, with the Timberwolves ranked seventh in pace while posting a 24th OPRK against opposing guards.
Bennedict Mathurin (FD $6200 DK $6100) is playing nearly 40 minutes a night over his last three outings for this shorthanded Indiana team and is tough to fade in that sort of role.
Kyle Anderson FD - $6500 DK - $6500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.84 DK - 28.06
Um, why is KA still just $6,500 on both sites? We know that Minnesota is finally at full health, but this has been one of the primary playmakers over recent weeks. In fact, Anderson has at least 28 DK points in nine of his last 11 games while scoring at least 39 fantasy points in seven of those. His stat-stuffing is what makes him such a sensational option, and he's actually been doing a ton of playmaking out of the post as well. Getting to face Portland's pitiful defense only adds to KA's value, with the Trail Blazers ranked 27th in defensive efficiency.
RJ Barrett FD - $6300 DK - $6200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.41 DK - 34.27
Barrett had a rough go in the first game without Julius Randle, but he should never be this cheap when the All-Star is sidelined. We say that because Barrett has a 30 percent usage rate with Randle off the floor. That's awesome since Barrett was already locked into 35 minutes and 15 shots, which could turn into 20 shots and 40 minutes here. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 31 DK points per game with Randle, and we truly believe that's his floor for this remaining week. Facing Washington is wonderful, too, because the Wizards are resting most of their starters to dive down the Eastern Conference standings.
OG Anunoby (FD $6600 DK $6700) faces a 26th-ranked Charlotte defense and has established a 30-point floor in his 40-minute role.
Evan Mobley FD - $8800 DK - $8600
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 44.59 DK - 45.26
I don't like to throw out the word superstar, but Mobley is on the brink, and nobody is talking about it. The 2022 Rookie of the Year runner-up has scored at least 36 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 13 games while providing a 44-point average in that span. That's scary since this kid is only 21 years old, and he could definitely be a five-figure player this time next season. What adds to his value here is the fact that Jarrett Allen is injured right now, giving Mobley more minutes, shot attempts, and rebounds. That's on full display when you see that Mobley has at least 37 DK points in 11 of the last 12 games that Allen has missed. Indiana is an incredible matchup too, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing big men.
Sandro Mamukelashvili FD - $5300 DK - $5400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.38 DK - 25.97
I loved watching Mamu at Seton Hall, and I'm pleasantly surprised to see him be a late-season darling in season-long and DFS. The tanking Spurs signed him about a month ago and have given him a prominent role since then. That usage should bump here with Johnson and Vassell out, likely forcing Sandro into a 30-minute role as a starter. He's been performing no matter who's been playing, with Mamu scoring at least 25 DK points in seven of his last eight games. He's also got 34 and 38 DK points in his two most recent outings, and games like that might be common throughout the final week of the season. We don't expect Sacramento to slow him down, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing PFs.
P.J. Washington (FD $7700 DK $8500) would do everything for Charlotte if he can suit up, with Ball, Hayward, Rozier, and Oubre all possibly missing this game.
Jakob Poeltl FD - $7500 DK - $6400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 38.83 DK - 39.36
This DraftKings price is a joke. Poeltl has been playing at an $8K level since joining Toronto, and it's insulting to have him sitting at $6,400. The big man has scored at least 27 DraftKings points in 17 of 19 games since moving north, averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game in that span. That's what you typically see from an $8K player, and it's no surprise since this per-minute beast is finally playing 30 minutes a night. All of that would make him a good value against anyone, but this is the best possible matchup. Charlotte is surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers and setting records in that regard.
Mitchell Robinson FD - $6500 DK - $4800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 30.6 DK - 28.63
We weren't exactly sure how the Randle absence would affect this team, but if the first game is any indication, it's massive for Mitch-Rob's fantasy value. The big man had 38 DraftKings points in the first game without the All-Star, doing that damage in just 22 minutes of play. The 22 minutes look concerning on the surface, but that was a strange game where Isaiah Hartenstein was feeling it off the bench. In any case, Robinson should never be below $5,000 whether Randle is in or not because he's averaging over 25 DK points per game. Washington is not a worrisome matchup either, ranked 21st in defensive efficiency ratings.
Alperen Sengün (FD $7400 DK $6800) had nearly 60 DK points against the Lakers earlier in the year and remains too cheap in this $7K price range.