Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/6/14
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Fair warning! You aren’t going to see too many early slate plays on here today. That group of games is real rough. Not to say there isn’t value in there, but it was hard to justify a full separate write-up with that group. You’ll see some names sprinkled in, but for the most part the later slate seems like where it’s at.
Danny Salazar - FD 7500 DK 7100 DD 13950 SS 21200
I simply cannot, nor do I want to, quit this guy. I’m just too intrigued by the upside. His K rate is close to ten per nine innings and today he’s facing a Red’ squad that ranks near the bottom of the league against righty pitching. They are a very weak, somewhat top-heavy lineup that gets real bad, real quick. Salazar is a siren song, has been unlucky a bit this year and his xFIP is in the high 3’s, about a half run lower than his ERA. Pitching is a bit dicey today. But I’m willing to take a chance on the guy.
Yordano Ventura - FD 7000 DK 6700 DD 14050 SS 19400
He’s not going to go nuts with the K’s. And ballpark doesn’t play great for pitchers. But the Diamondbacks were a middle of the road team against righties even with Goldschmidt. Without him they are significantly weaker. Ventura needs to keep his control to be truly effective and I think he has a chance today against a below-average team.
Chris Sale - FD 10700 DK 12200 DD 21000 SS 32200
Putting him on here more out of a sense of duty than what I actually think he represents as value. He is expensive today, but is by far the best pitcher going. That alone makes him worth the slight overpay. His matchup against the Rangers in U.S. Cellular isn’t exactly ideal, but Sale’s been (outside of a misstep last game) excellent this season. Again, this is more on name than it is points per dollar value, but how can I not mention the guy?
Consider Doug Fister
Brian McCann - FD 2800 DK 3900 DD 7450 SS 5500
Really not liking catcher at all today, and honestly this group of games and matchups was tough across the board in singling out value. I'll take a chance on McCann today considering the stadium and the fact that Verlander just isn't the same dominating pitcher we used to know. McCann's been the victim of a Babip disaster this season and you'll probably have me buying all the way to end on him.
Devin Mesoraco - FD 3400 DK 4100 DD 9250 SS 8300
Never exciting to pick a player against a pitcher you just suggested, but so goes it today at catcher. Mesoraco is having an excellent season against righties and his numbers are outpacing his historical splits. I'm never one to totally buy into short term production, but there are some reasons to be encouraged by his output in the righty platoon this season. Salazar isn't an easy matchup, but I think you can roll the dice on Mesoraco today.
There is so much to like about this position today. I can go a number of different ways at different price points with different considerations. I sometimes like when this happens because I can make the rest of my lineup and work these guys in depending on what’s left in the kitty. Here we go rapid fire.
Ian Kinsler - FD 3500 DK 4600 DD 9200 SS 7400
Nothing new here if you are an avid reader. Which I can only assume you are because you’re intelligent and thirsty for knowledge. Kinsler is a fantastic hitter against lefties and today gets a crappy one in the form of Chris Capuano. Ian also gets to bat in one of the best hitter’s parks around. The prices are more than fair and since I don’t think you’ll be paying a ton for pitching, affording the guy shouldn’t be much of an issue.
Chase Utley - FD 3200 DK 4400 DD 9300 SS 7200
Brad Peacock has some insane numbers. And by “insane” I mean “terrible”. Peacock heads to the mound with the sole purpose of walking the entire ballpark. Unfortunately not all batters are tuned into this and some end up striking out accidentally. But Peacock’s BB rate is close to five per nine. That’s about as high as you’ll see. Love Utley in this spot and though he isn’t going to provide tons of power upside, I think he’s more than a safe play.
Jimmy Rollins - FD 3200 DK 4300 DD 9000 SS 7700
Like I said with Utley, Peacock is all about the walks. Loves to hand them out. And loves to put guys on base. J-Roll isn’t exactly an OBP machine, but he’s solid against righties over his career and this season owns a 112 wRC+ against them. He’s getting a bit pinched with the Babip this year and has been turning in a solid performance. I’m on some Phillies for sure today and he’s one of them.
Jean Segura - FD 2200 DK 3600 DD 7300 SS 4300
Thisis a situation where I wonder if the price has fallen to the point where we can consider him against righties even if that is the worse side of his platoon split. Our system thinks we can against Vogelsong. I’m dubious, but willing to take the chance mostly because there’s very little downside at his prices. Vogelsong isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but we are targeting Segura simply on price here.
Consider Starlin Castro in Coors
All about going cheap here today.
Nick Castellanos - FD 2700 DK 3400 DD 6350 SS 4700
He’s really solid against lefties and is in a great spot today against Capuano. Tiger stacks will be a popular play today and you could stand to have some levels of exposure to their lineup. Castellanos is carrying a .358 wOBA and 129 wRC+ against lefties this season which should be aided going in a hitter’s park against a below average lefty.
Danny Valencia - FD 2200 DK 3000 DD 5750 SS 3600
Wei-Yin Chen is a pretty good pitcher, but I’m willing to take a chance on Valencia as a platoon split maniac coming at punt prices. He’s rocking a mid .800’s OPS on that side of the split to go along with career splits that favor lefty pitching. If you are looking to fit some bigger salaries I think you can take a shot on him.
Consider Matt Dominguez
Jose Bautista - FD 4400 DK 5300 DD 11400 SS 9800
Mike Trout - FD 4800 DK 5600 DD 13600 SS 10400
I’m putting these guys together today because our system has them neck in neck for the top overall points producer in the outfield today. And with that it thinks they are still coming at solid points per dollar value. If I had to choose I think I’d go Bautista, but both are in nice spots today. Both face fine, not great pitchers in Chen and Haren and because I’m saving in some other spots (pitching and third base mainly) I think the salary restrictions on these guys are less imposing. Go for it. Splurge. You only live once.
Coco Crisp - FD 3300 DK 4500 DD 8700 SS 7400
One reason to really want to play this guy against righties is that he walks 4% more than he strikes out (16% to 12%). You won’t see that very often and makes his level of safety shoot way up knowing he can get on base at such a high rate (.397 OBP against righties this season). His 137 wRC+ on that side of the split makes him a solid mid range value against Hellickson today.
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