Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 8/8/14
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Stephen Strasburg – FD 9700 DK 9900 DD 19900 SS 29000
In my not-so-humble opinion this guy is still coming at crazy discounts. Much hate has been leveled against the guy this season, mostly from a few epic blow-up games and underperforming in some high expectation starts. Otherwise, he’s been a stud this season with an xFIP of 2.55 and striking out more than 10.5 batters per nine. He faces a Braves team coming in near the bottom of the league against righties. Fantastic spot and will be the feature starter in every one of my cash games today. And honestly, it’s not close.
Jose Quintana – FD 7700 DK 8300 DD 16250 SS NA
Wow, was I surprised to see this guy popping up near the top of our system today. Not a dude on my radar all that often, but he’s putting together a more than serviceable season and today faces a true bottom feeding team against lefties in the Mariners. Quintana’s a speck worse than his 3.02 ERA would suggest but, all in all, it’s been a solid season striking out close to eight per nine and keeping the walks relatively in check. The big upside here is the opponent as the Mariners stink against lefties and Safeco keeps power completely in check.
Ian Kennedy – FD 7600 DK 8300 DD 15800 SS 23900
Feels like I throw him out there every time out. One reason is because his price is kept (somewhat) artificially low because getting a win for the dude is super tough. Because the Padres suck and all. Kennedy’s peripherals are totally acceptable at around a 3:1 K:BB with a 3.31 xFIP. The Pirates aren’t pushovers but become considerably worse without McCutchen in the lineup. The ballpark helps and Kennedy should be a complete dog in the game.
Consider Nathan Eovaldi
Brian McCann – FD 3000 DK 3800 DD 7900 SS 5700
Broken record time mostly because the continues his season-long run of coming way cheaper than expectation due to some incredible bad luck. He’s gotten hot of late with some power in his last few games and today is in a nice spot against an up and down Trevor Bauer. Bauer is Jekyll and Hyde for sure so McCann is far from safe, but the price is right.
Wilin Rosario – FD 2800 DK 3900 DD 7650 SS 6700
Don’t like pulling him on the wrong side of the split but the ballpark is advantageous and Chase Anderson isn’t exactly a Cy Young candidate. Rosario is significantly better against lefties but there are other factors in addition to just platoons and at times prices make for a play. This is one them.
Consider Jason Castro
Chris Davis – FD 3200 DK 4300 DD 9050 SS 6700
Has been dropped in the lineup (though that was against the lefty Happ last night) which could decrease his value. But the upshot here is facing Justin Masterson, one of the true disasters against lefties. Masterson gets absolutely shelled by lefty pitching and Davis is coming cheap because of a K rate out of this ballpark (where his at bats aren’t ending up coincidentally). I’m willing to buy on the insane platoon split both ways.
Brandon Moss – FD 3100 DK 3900 DD 8800 SS 7400
After an epic early season run of unsustainable power Moss has finally gone Clark Kent. But that’s fine. Alter egos can be fine at the right price and that’s the case for Moss today. He faces Kyle Gibson who has an array of secondary pitches (without the requisite fastball to get the K) but rocks an xFIP in the low 4’s. Gibson’s K rate is insane low and the A’s should be on base against Gibson today.
Consider Brandon Belt
Jason Kipnis – FD 3700 DK 4400 DD 8950 SS 7500
Esmil Rogers has some K stuff to be quasi-worried about, but Kipnis is still in a nice spot considering his price and skill set. Kipnis can toss speed and power into the equation making his basement considerably higher than most other guys at the position. Second base can be a problem on most days, and I’m fine going on Rogers’ career K numbers as a litmus making Kipnis a solid play today.
Aaron Hill – FD 3000 DK 4000 DD 7700 SS 4800
Considering this play on ballpark and matchup and even with those two factors it’s a bit of stretch throwing Hill out as a play. He’s struggled this season even on the better side of his split with a wRC+ below 100 without looking totally luck related. But the ballpark is choice and Matzek can’t generate any significant K numbers, walks a decent amount and just generally blows. These external factors have our system higher on Hill than on most days and you can look his way.
Erick Aybar – FD 2700 DK 3600 DD 7150 SS 5700
He doesn’t suffer from a crazy a platoon split and keeps things down the middle in that regard. Not great against righties, but fine enough for our purposes, Aybar is a contact hitter facing Allen Webster whose early season returns have been a garbage heap. Webster’s stunk though the sample size is pretty small. Aybar on the other hand has put up a 111 wRC+ against righties this season, slightly above average. Like the price on the guy and think for the price he makes a nice cash game play.
Elvis Andrus – FD 2700 DK 4100 DD 8700 SS 6200
Brett Oberholtzer can be targeted. I repeat: Brett Oberholtzer can be targeted. Andrus hits lefties better on that side of the split over his career and has Babip’ed his way to an .862 OPS this season against southpaws. Oberholtzer gets roughed up by lefties and has basically stunk with an xFIP in the mid 4’s. I’m going to have some Rangers going today for sure with Andrus as a part of those plans.
Consider Jed Lowrie
Adrian Beltre – FD 3600 DK 4400 DD 10050 SS 8400
Always want to be on the guy when a lefty comes to the hill. Today it takes the form of Brett Oberholtzer and his crappy peripherals. Beltre gets the nod for a historical trouncing of lefties with this season only solidifying the numbers. Beltre’s 151 wRC+ and .914 OPS are a little Babip inflated but still speak to a guy who should be targeted on this side of the split.
Lonnie Chisenhall – FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 7500 SS 6600
Only in consideration against righties and his super crappy performance against lefties keeps his salary low enough over the course of the season. Not a great hitter by any means, but Esmil Rogers isn’t a great pitcher so we meet somewhere on this fake graph that I just made up in my head. Coming at prices that make him a flexible option at a thin position. I’m much favoring Beltre in this spot, but for the dollars Chisenhall has the opponent and ballpark to make it work.
Consider Chase Headley
Mark Trumbo – FD 2800 DK 4000 DD 7900 SS 6000
Will be in every one of my lineups everywhere today. I love the price and the historical splits dictate nearly a must play against Matzek. Trumbo’s career .824 OPS against lefties isn’t a world beater except when you realize his big numbers come on this side of the split. He’s run real bad against righties since coming back from injury keeping his overall price down. But against lefties it’s been all systems go with a .906 OPS and 146 wRC+. Again, I’m playing him everywhere.
Coco Crisp – FD 3200 DK 4200 DD 8650 SS 7300
Like I said yestersday, it’s tough to strike Crisp out on the righty side of the split and he walks more than he K’s in that platoon. Great news against Kylse Gibson who doesn’t strike anyone out anyway. Crisp is a solid cash game option who doesn’t have crazy upside for GPPs. But he’s in play there as well if he can get the speed going. The A’s, in general, make nice plays today with Crisp right at the top of the order.
Alex Rios – FD 2600 DK 3800 DD 8350 SS 5900
Another guy with solid numbers against lefties, this season with a Babip-aided .990 OPS to go along with a .417 wOBA. His price, especially on FanDuel makes it ridiculously easy to get him into games. These three guys seem to make the outfield situation easy to formulate, especially in cash games as the plays are spread across the field with great points-per-dollar multipliers.
Michael Brantley – FD 3700 DK 5200 DD 9850 SS 9200
A contact hitter who seems to defy odds (at least in my own mind because I keep expecting him to suck) facing off against Esmil Rogers in a hitter’s park. The price is getting out of bounds in places like DraftKings. But he’s coming at a value in plenty of spots. Impossibly to strike out and walk Brantley makes his bones putting the ball in play.
Billy Hamilton – FD 3400 DK 4400 DD 8350 SS 7500
I want to have him in play against pitchers that struggle generating a ton of swing and miss stuff. That’s the case here for sure against Eovaldi. Hamilton could post a monster today
Consider Curtis Granderson
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