Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/30/14 - Late Slate

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Jesse Hahn - FD 6900 DK 9300 DD 16400 SS 27800
Hahn is putting together a fantastic season. Too bad it’s on a terrible team that can rarely get him any wins. If it weren’t for that little (kind of big) issue I’d be even higher on the guy. But he’s got a chance to grab one against Joe Kelly and the Cardinals today. The Cards are below average against righty pitching and while they don’t K a ton, they also have very little power. This latter piece will show itself even more going in San Diego. Hahn’s K-ing more than a batter an inning. The xFIP is a run behind his crazy low ERA, but it’s not dissuading me any.

Zack Greinke - FD 9800 DK 10600 DD 19000 SS 30000
The Braves stink against righty pitching. In some ways this play feels a little safer than Hahn in that Greinke might be a bit more in line for a win (though I think Alex Wood is still decent). Greinke’s been fantastic this season with an xFIP well under two and striking out more than a batter an inning. Oh, and did I mention that the Braves stink against righties?

Strongly consider Alex Wood on the bounceback



Brian McCann - FD 2900 DK 4200 DD 7300 SS 5300
Was getting tired out getting burned by Yankees. They couldn’t get to Nick Martinez early, but turned it on later. Colby Lewis isn’t as bad as Martinez, but he still isn’t good. The park in Arlington caters to hitters and McCann’s prices are still in the buy zone. He’s remained consistently low thanks to some bad luck to start the season. His Babip is low, but the batted ball profile remains in line with his career averages.

Wilin Rosario - FD 3000 DK 4100 DD 7500 SS 6600
One of the best hitting catchers when it comes to facing lefties, Rosario has the advantage of playing half of his games in the atmospheric equivalent of a zero-gravity chamber. But even when factoring for park he still hammers southpaws. Is in a nice spot against Travis Wood today for sure.


First Basemen

Miguel Cabrera - FD 5100 DK 5700 DD 11900 SS 9700
He won’t come cheap, but that’s fine when you get to face Hector Noesi in a great hitter’s ballpark in U.S. Cellular Field. Miggy be Miggy and he’s basically splits proof. Even this season his OPS against righties is over .900 and that’s with his Hr/FB% sitting below his career averages. He might be in a decline, but it’s gradual and Hector Noesi isn’t a guy you age regress against.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3100 DK 4500 DD 9250 SS 6500
He’s getting positively smoked in Babip this season against right-handed pitching. It sits at .237 which is well below his career averages. Even with that number his 127 wRC+ on that split is more than acceptable and makes a solid value play in the middle of the Bomber lineup against Colby Lewis today whose xFIP is in the mid 4’s.


Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler - FD 3500 DK 4500 DD 8900 SS 7400
I’m typically buying Kinsler against lefty pitching because his split on that side has been significantly better over the course of his career. This season has been a little of a different story, but I’m more of a historical guy. (Minored in American History in college, so you could pretty much call me a total expert on all things “past”) But I’ll consider Kinsler in the late slate simply because Hector Noesi is one of the weaker arms going there. Kinsler’s been serviceable this season against righties with a .342 wOBA (fine enough) and 115 wRC+ which is slightly above average.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2900 DK 4500 DD 8000 SS 6800
Not having a season to remember, but that’s mostly because of his complete inability to hit right-handed pitching. It hasn’t been an MVP season against lefties either, but some of it is Babip related and is pulled down by a power outage thanks to a low Hr/FB%. Wrist issues can sap power and that may be what’s happening here. Mark Buehrle’s a low-K, soft-tossing pitcher whose ERA is skewed this season. I’ll consider Dustin here.



Starlin Castro - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 7700 SS 5800
Where he’s coming cheaper I think you can consider him against Brett Anderson in the late slate. Castro’s a better hitter on the lefty side of the split and his middle of the order placement provides some ancillary benefits that outweigh the fact that he hits for little power. But batting behind Rizzo has its advantages and Castro’s 134 wRC+ and .819 OPS (Higher Babip and all) make for a good play in Wrigley that’s slightly above average for hitters.

Eugenio Suarez - FD 2200 DK 3300 DD 5000 SS 4600
Punt prices on a good offensive team against a weak pitcher tells the story here. Not much to love or hate about Suarez. He’s just kind of a guy and the Tigers should put up runs today.


Third Basemen

This is a weak position in the late slate of games. I’m not over the moon about either of these plays. So tread carefully here.

Chase Headley - FD 2900 DK 4500 DD 8200 SS 5400
He’s probably never returning to 2012 form so we can all stop waiting for that to come. But there are benefits to hitting in a lineup that isn’t the Padres, and even more benefits to hitting around the middle of that lineup. The park in Arlington plays well for power to lefties and Headley is a significantly better hitter against righties over his career. Lewis has a little more K stuff than say Nick Martinez yesterday, but is still prone to getting rocked.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2400 DK 3800 DD 7500 SS 4900
Has for sure come back down to Earth against lefties and isn’t as dominant on that platoon split. But he’s still a better hitter against lefties for sure and this season carries a 118 wRC+ to go along with an OPS creeping toward .800. Neither number will wow you, but he’s not too expensive in some spots today and the later slate is tougher in terms on this position.



Mike Trout - FD 4900 DK 5800 DD 13200 SS 10400
It’s tough for Trout to get solid value multipliers in our system because he’s typically so expensive everywhere that grabbing him on a good points per dollar basis is tricky. Today though I am going to work hard having him in my lineups against Kevin Gausman who strikes out less than 6.5 batters per nine while issuing a fair share of walks. Trout is Trout. He’s awesome, ranks among the leaders in everything you can imagine, hits righties and lefties with Hall of Fame efficiency and while expensive, has a great expectation today.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 3900 DK 4900 DD 9850 SS 8100
Carlos Beltran - FD 3400 DK 4600 DD 8850 SS 7200
Brett Gardner - FD 3800 DK 5100 DD 9150 SS 7800
Gardner was the man last night. Thankfully he was the odd man out for me last night putting in lineups. Brutal. I had him as a pick for sure, but when the decisions were made I favored Beltran and Ellsbury. This is something I’ll live with for the rest of my life. And life is long. Today the Yankees, as you’ve noticed already in this writeup, are in a good spot. Colby Lewis isn’t as bad as he appeared early on, but he’s still just *meh with a tendency to get rocked. I’ll stack the pinstripes again today in abundance.

Jonny Gomes - FD 2300 DK 3200 DD 6650 SS 4200
Really can ever be considered against lefties and his struggles against righties keep the prices low on Gomes. He’s continued a career platoon trend toward dominating this side of the split and this season is right in line. His mid .800’s OPS and 140 wRC+ on the lefty platoon are more than enough to justify his lower tier prices today. I like him against Buehrle in Fenway.

Consider Tiger’s Outfielders


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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Hey- I really like the Late/Early split article– Thanks.

    By the way, you guys have some great write ups….humor injected and all! Well done!

    • Thanks for the nice words Mike and thanks for reading!

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