Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 8/15/14

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Corey Kluber - FD 10700 DK 10600 DD 21400 DFSTR 14700
Not the most choice of matchups for the guy but it's tough to ignore the kind of success he's had this season. Kluber's been nothing short of a Cy Young candidate with a 2.98 xFIP while striking out close to ten batters per nine. The group of AL stud starting pitchers is kind of long, but Kluber is right there in the mix. He faces the Orioles who've been fine enough against righty pitching while striking out more than 20% of the time. I'm buying here almost primarily on Kluber and it seems his price is completely reasonable across the board.

Madison Bumgarner - FD 9200 DK 8600 DD 19400 DFSTR 8800
He's in a tougher matchup against Hamels which does decrease his win expectation some. I'm not in love with that and don't love spending top tier-ish prices on a guy who could end up in a pitcher's duel. But Bumgarner's been his usual model of consistency self and not much should change in this one. AT&T park is solid for pitchers and the Phillies rank 21st in the league in wOBA against lefty pitching. I just with Philly was chucking a bum out there.

Lance Lynn - FD 8300 DK 8800 DD 17200 DFSTR 9200
The Padres are still a bad offense. I know they've strung together some hits lately getting their Babip back up into the range of normal. But you don't end up as a basement-dwelling offense just because the ball didn't bounce your way a few times. They still stink. I wish Lynn didn't walk as many guys and his xFIP runs about a run worse than his ERA. So he isn't a lock solid play. But the matchup still works and Lynn does strike out about a batter per nine.

Zack Wheeler - FD 7600 DK 8500 DD 14250 DFSTR 9000
The Cubs are downright bad against righties, ranking 28th in team wOBA against RHP with a strikeout rate north of 22%. Those numbers are good enough for a bullish outlook on Wheeler who's been slightly above average this year with a 3.53 xFIP while striking out more than eight batters per nine. You saw what a guy like Michael Fiers can do against this squad. Wheeler is a nice GPP play.



Devin Mesoraco - FD 3900 DK 4900 DD 9450 DFSTR 9300
No-brainer here really. He was a monster percentage start last night and will be again tonight with another lefty in Coors. Franklin Morales is absolutely brutal against righties for his career and especially this season allowing a .400 wOBA to that side of the split. All Reds righties are in play. Hell, if you hit (yes you) are a righty and were hitting in Denver I'd throw you in a lineup. Mesoraco is better than you and has raked this season. Will be a huge cash game play and has the crazy high GPP upside.

Chris Iannetta - FD 2500 DK 3300 DD 6200 DFSTR 4000
Hank Conger - FD 2200 DK 2700 DD 5300 DFSTR 3000
Whoever is starting against Nick Martinez makes for a solid play and you'll see plenty of other Angels on this list tonight. I'll get into how bad Martinez is later, but suffice to say he stinks. Neither of these guys is particularly adept at "hitting" a "baseball" but their punt prices against a crappy pitcher make for a little downside if you decide to fade Meso.

GPP plays - Buster Posey and Carlos Ruiz face tough lefties in Hamels and Bumgarner respectively. But both hit lefties well and could provide a little boost if you want to fade Coors.


First Basemen

No obvious play is standing out to me right now but I'm going give a few lower priced guys with a quick hit on why they could provide value today.

Adam Lind - FD 3000 DK 2700 DD 7450 DFSTR 3000
Been slow return from injury but this was a guy among the leaders in the league against RHP pitching with a .985 OPS and faces a loser in Hector Noesi in a great hitter's park. I'm all over him in tournaments.

Adam Dunn - FD 2900 DK 3500 DD 8100 DFSTR 5000
Stroman's a mixed bag of effectiveness but he isn't an elite strikeout guy. That piece is important when it comes to considering Dunn on any given day. Dunn's your prototypical three outcomes guy (he's the poster boy really) and while I don't have any sense of his "safety" there is some upside considering the park and the splits.

Albert Pujols - FD 3500 DK 4600 DD 10850 DFSTR 6800
He's effectively cooked now. But even the worst hitters in the majors can hit Nick Martinez and Pujols works in an Angels stack.

Consider Mike Napoli


Second Basemen

Dustin Pedroia - FD 3100 DK 4400 DD 9100 DFSTR 6700
Keuchel's been decent this season but Pedroia is starting to come around now and while I'm not one to completely buy into streaks from one of my recommendations it at least makes me a bit more comfortable knowing he's not dead or something. (My longest sentence in history) Pedroia's bread and butter split has been against lefties but that's taken a bit of a dip this season. Some of it is luck. But he's had injuries too. I'm buying on the guy tonight on the right side of his split and a modest bounce back.

Howie Kendrick - FD 2600 DK 3800 DD 7250 DFSTR 3300
In a quest to recommend every single player on the Angels, Kendrick fits the bill well enough though he's struggled mightily against righty pitching over the course of the season. This is more matchup based against Martinez. I'm on some Angels stacks and Kendrick's price has me intrigued even with the short term deficiencies.

Dee Gordon - FD 2900 DK 3900 DD 8650 DFSTR 3000
Put on a show yesterday which felt good coming off our recommendation. Is in a similar spot today against Jimmy Nelson. Price is right and if he's on base it's off to the races.



Erick Aybar - FD 2400 DK 3700 DD 7250 DFSTR 4000
And the Angels plays continue. At such a weak position Aybar rates out as our number one SS play today and a guy I'll have almost everywhere. It's just the perfect place to meet on the graph considering Nick Martinez doesn't do anything like striking batters out and Aybar is nearly impossibly to put down on strikes. That means he's all over the ball today. The power upside isn't there, but I'm buying him on volume.

Zack Cozart - FD 2400 DK 3400 DD 6450 DFSTR 6600
He isn't good. But he's cheap and playing in Coors against another lefty. Tough to avoid this game today and I probably wouldn't do it too much unless I was looking to go completely contrarian.

Strongly consider Jose Reyes if you want to spend up and consider Asdrubal Cabrera


Third Basemen

Todd Frazier - FD 3100 DK 4800 DD 9550 DFSTR 7800
Tough to fade his price in some spots considering he's coming in the mid tier (FD especially) at Coors against a guy in Franklin Morales who gets raked by righties. Frazier's .838 OPS and 133 wRC+ play well enough against lefties and he gets a solid boost in power expectation just by stepping onto the field in Coors. Will be another popular play today though I wouldn't consider him a must.

David Wright - FD 3000 DK 3700 DD 8600 DFSTR 4000
One of the reasons I'm not recommending Frazier across the board is how cheap Wright is coming against the lefty Travis Wood. With the help of some crazy Babip, Wright has smoked lefties this season with a mid .900's OPS and insane .425 wOBA. Again, some of that is luck but he's historically been better against lefties so there's some history. His price is so much cheaper on a site like DK that making the decision to get away from Coors is a little easier.

Consider Juan Francisco



There are a few ways you can go in the OF tonight. I'll give some teammate options and then a few individual guys to consider. It's going to be an interesting night for sure.

Mike Trout - FD 4800 DK 5500 DD 13050 DFSTR 4100
Kole Calhoun - FD 3400 DK 3800 DD 8900 DFSTR 6500
Josh Hamilton - FD 3000 DK 3900 DD 8450 DFSTR 3000
Nick Martinez strikes out less than five batters per nine and walks almost as many. He is about as bad an everyday starter as you'll see and I want to have some exposure to him for sure. Each of these guys is coming in at value in their individual price points and each stands to have a solid game against the guy. Without making the case for each guy individually, just know that all three hit right handed pitching well and as said before, everyone hits Martinez well.

Jose Bautista - FD 4300 DK 5200 DD 11650 DFSTR 5900
Melky Cabrera - FD 3800 DK 4300 DD 9900 DFSTR 6400
Colby Rasmus - FD 2900 DK 3400 DD 7600 DFSTR 3000
I'm interested in buying guys playing against a garbage-y arm in one of the better hitter's parks in baseball. U.S. Cellular boosts power to both sides of the plate about as well as you'll see from any park and really does something for righties making Joey Bats one of the top plays on the night. Noesi has struggled in the majors with a mid 4's xFIP and a strikeout rate leaving a great deal to be desired. As I said with the Halos, each of the Jays' hitters offers value along different lines of the pricing spectrum and each could really do damage today.

Ryan Ludwick - FD 2300 DK 3600 DD 6200 DFSTR 3000
Had him yesterday and he did us a solid with a little yard work. Going back to the punt well today on the right side of his split against Franklin Morales and playing in Coors.

Bryce Harper - FD 3100 DK 3600 DD 9000 DFSTR 6300
Still coming cheap and starting to turn on the power.

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