Nascar picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
    AAA 400

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    AAA 400

    Dover International Speedway - Dover, DE
    Track Type/Length - 1 Mile Oval Conrete Short Track
    24° Banking in the Turns - 9° on the Front & Back Stretch

    Matt Kenseth became the second Joe Gibbs Racing driver to lock his spot in the Contender Round of the Chase with a win at New Hampshire on Sunday. It was Kevin Harvick, needing a top finish, who dominated the race leading 216 laps. Unfortunately for the #4 team they came up 3 laps short on fuel and watched their Chase hopes fade away unless they can come up with a win at Dover in the elimination race this weekend. The standings have tightened up around the bubble with four drivers(Jamie McMurray, Dale Jr., Kyle Busch,Paul Menard) all within two points from 11th to 14th place. With only two drivers safe and on to the next round, the pressure multiplies in these elimination races.

    This week the drivers will face Dover International Speedway for the AAA 400 and first elimination race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Dover is a 1 mile concrete short track with 24° banking in the corners. This will be the second race here at Dover this year so we will look closely at how drivers fared back in May as well as the previous 5 races at this track. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. all lead over 90 laps back in May but it was Jimmie Johnson who took the lead with only 17 laps to go. He held on for the win which was his record 10th win at Dover in his career. Over the previous five races here at Dover, Hendrick Motorsports has, by far, the best history at the track. All three HMS drivers in the Chase(Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Jr.) have a 10.4 or better average finish. This will be the first real test for the Chase teams where we will find out who are contenders and who are pretenders. On to the picks!

    Upper Tier Targets

    Jimmie Johnson
    DraftKings - $11,200
    Fantasy Feud - $255,000
    Vegas Odds - 5/1
    Chase Standings – 5th
    Practice #1 - Rained Out
    Practice #2 - 8th
    Final Practice - 8th
    Qualified - 5th

    He has dominated Dover in his career with 10 wins(most of any track in his career) and 20 top 10 finishes. Taking out two crashes back in 2003 and 2004, Jimmie has only finished outside the top 10 at Dover five times in his career. He has led(681) double the laps of any other driver here in the previous 5 races. The #48 team has been getting better every week in this Chase and will be looking for win #11 at Dover this weekend. He is priced $200 more than Harvick this week and I could see going either way(Harvick needs a win to move on) but his dominance of this track has be leaning Johnson.

    Brad Keselowski
    DraftKings - $9,900
    Fantasy Feud - $230,000
    Vegas Odds - 8.5/1
    Chase Standings – 8th
    Practice #1 - Rained Out
    Practice #2 - 6th
    Final Practice - 6th
    Qualified - 8th

    His price has dipped $700 on DraftKings this week presenting a nice value for the #2 team. Over the previous five races at Dover, Keselowski has posted three top 5 finishes and a 11.6 average finish. Team Penske has shown speed and qualified well all season leading to a high amount of laps led which we really enjoy in DFS. Look for a strong practice and qualifying from the #2 team and then lock him into your lineups in all formats at this price.

    Joey Logano
    DraftKings - $9,600
    Fantasy Feud - $215,000
    Vegas Odds - 11/1
    Chase Standings – 4th
    Practice #1 - Rained Out
    Practice #2 - 13th
    Final Practice - 9th
    Qualified - 4th

    I am going back to back with Team Penske teammates this week. As mentioned with Keselowski, they both qualify well and have lead a ton of laps this year. Logano finished 11th here in May and has recorded two top 5's, four top 10's, and a 6.6 average finish at Dover in the previous five years. He will be looking for his first career win here and comes in riding a nice run of form. He has started the Chase going 6th and 3rd. He makes a great a play in any format this week.

    Also Consider - Kyle Busch

    Middle Tier Targets

    Martin Truex Jr.
    DraftKings - $9,300
    Fantasy Feud - $205,000
    Chase Standings – 9th
    Practice #1 - Rained Out
    Practice #2 - 16th
    Final Practice - 10th
    Qualified - 9th

    He season has been a roller coaster ride, starting out strong leading up to a win and then going into a so called slump for a period over summer. The #78 team seems to be getting hot again and no better time to do so than the Chase playoffs. He started the Chase with a 13th at Chicago and a 8th place finish at New Hampshire. He comes into this elimination race at Dover with a nice history here. He has recorded three top 10's in the three races he has ran here while a part of the Furniture Row Racing team. He also holds a 14.4 average finish and has led 133 laps in that time. He will be a GPP play for me this week and brings a ton of upside this here at Dover.

    Jeff Gordon
    DraftKings - $8,400
    Fantasy Feud - $175,000
    Vegas Odds - 21/1
    Chase Standings – 10th
    Practice #1 - Rained Out
    Practice #2 - 32nd
    Final Practice - 27th
    Qualified - 10th

    His career is coming to a close and will be looking to finish it off strong with a strong finish in this years Chase. He sits in 10th in the standings going into this weeks elimination race and has been a terrific here at Dover throughout his career. He is the defending champion here and has 5 career wins at Dover. Start your cash games with the #24 car and move on!

    Kyle Larson
    DraftKings - $8,100
    Fantasy Feud - $170,000
    Vegas Odds - 34/1
    Chase Standings – Not In Chase
    Practice #1 - Rained Out
    Practice #2 - 15th
    Final Practice - 14th
    Qualified - 19th

    He is the one non Chase driver who I feel has the best chance at winning a race in the next 8 weeks. He picked up a 7th in Chicago to kickoff the Chase races and followed it up with a 17th last week at New Hampshire. He has raced Dover three times in his Sprint Cup career and has one top 5, two top 10's and a 6.7 average finish. Look for a solid finish this week as the #42 is preparing for a strong run at the Chase in 2016.

    Low End Target

    Ryan Newman
    DraftKings - $6,900
    Fantasy Feud - $150,000
    Vegas Odds - 76/1
    Chase Standings – 6th
    Practice #1 - Rained Out
    Practice #2 - 18th
    Final Practice - 22nd
    Qualified - 6th

    He has moved up to 6th in the Chase standings after a 4th & 10th place finish in the first two races. He makes a great choice for cash games with a price under $7K this week on DraftKings. He has only recorded two top 10 finishes and a 20.2 average finish here at Dover over the previous five races but has three wins here in his career. Look for Newman to run strong again and move on to the Contender Round.

    Also Consider - Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., & Casey Mears

    Post Practice & Qualifying Update

    Qualifying Top 10:
    1. #20 Matt Kenseth
    2. #11 Denny Hamlin
    3. #19 Carl Edwards
    4. #22 Joey Logano
    5. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    6. #31 Ryan Newman
    7. #41 Kurt Busch
    8. #2 Brad Keselowski
    9. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
    10. #24 Jeff Gordon

    Qualfying will be set by standings as rain forced cancellation to first practice and qualifying. This will put 3 of 4 JGR drivers at the front of the field. Both Joey Logano and teammate Brad Keselowski will start inside the top on Sunday. There wasn't many laps run during either of the practices on Saturday due to more rain falling which leaves us with minimal data to go by. Carl Edwards was 2nd fastest in both practices and will be trying to make it a JGR three peat to start the Chase. Jimmie Johnson will have something to say about that starting 5th. He was 8th in both practices. There is some value to go along with Harvick and his 15th startign position. He was 4th and 1st in practices and is in a must win situation. On the low end Stenhouse Jr. presents some value starting back in 26th position. He was 14th and 11th in practices and looks to gain some bonus points if he can steer clear of a wreck. It will be the drivers and teams who can adjust during the race who will be there at the end. There is a chance for more rain today overnight so the track could be fresh for the race tomorrow. It will be a risky fantasy race with all the rain on the track which makes for a nice multi entry GPP weekend. Also, if playing cash games I would make two this week.

    Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Sylvania 300? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings and FantasyFeud for $5. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Head over to our PayPal payment page, if that's more your bag.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.


    image sources

    • 2048px-NASCAR_practice: By U.S. Air Force photo by Larry McTighe [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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