Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/16/16

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Point Guards

John Wall FD - $9800 DK - $8900
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 49.05 DK - 52.03
Wall’s been playing minutes in the high 30’s of late and that, almost alone, puts him a but above the rest of the point guard crown tonight. The Bulls are a bad matchup for opposing point guards which does even out the run some, but Wall’s usage has been at a season high of late. He’s averaging 22 shots per game over the last five (one game did go to OT) and he’s averaging an elite 29/8/4 line in that time. He’s getting to the line a ton too, over 8 times per game in the short term. This is all to say he’s just handling more of the offensive load and his usage ticks up some too if Markieff Morris sits again. He’s getting expensive on FanDuel at close to 10K, but it might be tough pairing up two out of the three big boys (Beard, Brow, Boogie) making Wall an interesting way to fill out lineups.

Andrew Harrison FD - $4100 DK - $4100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.77 DK - 24.85
This is a situation to keep a close eye on. The Grizz waived Harrison’s backup Toney Douglas yesterday which suggests that Mike Conley is pretty close to getting back on the court. But it’s hard to imagine the latter plays anything close to significant minutes even if he did come back. Harrison’s 20 minutes last game were a direct result of a rare point guard foul out. I think with lack of a backup and Conley just coming back (at best) Harrison is still in line for low 30’s minutes as the floor. He’s not a great player or anything, but his production is more than enough at these prices if he sees the floor time. As a starter he’s getting up just a tick under double digit looks per game and does chip in on the defensive end. Mostly just a price play to get some of the bigger money guys in.

Sergio Rodriguez FD - $5000 DK - $5000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.21 DK - 27.42
Point guard strikes me as a very thin position for this Friday slate and I’m fine getting away from the thing cheap if possible. Even though the Sixers started both Embiid and Okafor last game, Sergio still found a way to get up the second most shots on the team going 7-15 from the field. That’s likely the high end of his usage with the two big guys on the court but it’s an encouraging sign for him considering he’s still an affordable option. He only had five assists which feels like it’s on the low side of his projection if the Sixers are a better team on the offensive end at nearly full strength.

Shooting Guards

James Harden FD - $11800 DK - $12000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 55.95 DK - 60.3
Considering the matchup and just how freaking awesome he is, Harden is likely the chalkiest of the top end price guys today. When games stay close (and this one projects to) Harden is going to see minutes pushing up against 40 and is nearly impossible to stop on the offensive side of the ball. He’s “only” the 6th highest usage guy in the NBA but his 51% Assist rating is second only to Russ in that group. Harden’s averaging an absurd 28/12 on the season with the assist numbers so solid because he’s finding teammates in optimal situations and they are knocking down the shots. The Pelicans are a middle of the pack defensive efficiency team, but this games potential flow combined with Harden’s skill set has him as the safest cash game play on the night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $9900 DK - $9300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.93 DK - 49.15
Not to go all "copy/ paste" on you, but here's what we said about ABC last night:
Giannis has been topping 50 fantasy points with regularity, and his elite across-the-board contributions make him an incredibly safe option at a position that frequently lacks just that. It's hard to evaluate the match-up on some level because of Giannis' unique position. He's the size of a power forward, but runs the offense. It's hard to imagine Wade or Rondo covering him (if Rondo even plays), and while Butler is an excellent defender, Giannis' size could give him trouble. Vegas has pegged this game as a close one, and if we get high 30s/low 40s minutes out of the Greek Freak it's hard to believe we won't be satisfied with the result.
Did he satisfy? Most definitely. Dude rolled to a 30/14 game. I don't expect that same kind of top-end upside, but he still has a fantastic floor all things considered.

Nick Young FD - $4000 DK - $4100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 21.79 DK - 23.66
It appears Swaggy P’s minutes’ restriction after the injury is officially lifted with the shooting guard playing 26 and 30 minutes in his last two games. At $4K on FanDuel you’ll happily take him figuring on minutes in the high 20’s in a game against the Sixers who are a bottom third defensive team though they do defend the shooting guard better than league average. Nearly all of Young’s value comes from scoring so he needs to see shots while on the court. He doesn’t have to do a ton to pay off these salaries though and we know he loves to chuck as much as anyone.

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler FD - $9000 DK - $9000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 44.82 DK - 46.9
Last night aside, Jimmy Buckets has pretty much become a one man army as late. He posted a ridiculous stat line two nights ago scoring 27, with 9 boards, 6 assists, 3 steals and a block in a whopping 39 minutes.  He's had an insane amount of production this year consistently scoring 20 points 20 out of 23 games this year. And to top all of this, he's getting literally ALL the run he can handle. He's on a back to back against the same team in the Bucks and many will shy away because of the rough game last night. Don't. It's a great time to buy here as last night was the exception, not the norm.

Kelly Oubre FD - $4000 DK - $4000
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 23.9 DK - 25.7
Would emerge as an industry leading value if Markieff Morris isn't able to go Friday because of the issues he is having with his foot.  Oubre Jr. has dedicated himself to studying film and to the constant improvement of his game day in a day out.  After being pulled Nov 26 against the Spurs just after 3 minutes, Kelly said to himself "never again." And has since developed a new level of consistency that is actually telling of his progress and aptitudes.  Through his last 9 games he has averaged 9 points a game through 51% shooting just as a short tell.  Over the last game he has been absolutely annihilating value to the tune of 7 while averaging 22 points a game at a price most would consider "free" across the industry. I'm hoping we get to see his tenacity at large against a pretty stout Detroit defense that slows the pace down to a snails crawl.

Aaron Gordon FD - $4700 DK - $4900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.85 DK - 28.15
There is 1 caveat however, for this pick to be deployable we would need Vuce to sit again!  Gordon has seemingly seen a demotion during the beginning of the season due to poor play but the absence of Vucevic has allowed him to get back into the spotlight again, albeit only temporarily.  Last game he went berserk posting a crazy stat line of 33-7-2. Without Vuc on the court his usage is second only to Fournier, who always seems to have the ball or be shooting it at some capacity. In theory, Gordon should thrive in a serious up-tempo match-up with Brooklyn who is effectively terrible at everything categorized as defensive.

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis FD - $11800 DK - $11400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 55.7 DK - 57.53
Another player that really needs no formal introduction as we have all witness the spectacle which is his amazing ceiling and we've all rostered him because of his high floor, and we've all been burned by him when he stubbed his toe and had to leave the game. All of that aside, we're going to focus on the match-up tomorrow.  We're most likely looking at a high scoring and competitive game. Definitely, for the Pels to stay competitive they are going to need all they can get from their superstar. Not terribly concerned about Davis playing in a back 2 back but to say the least his most formidable outputs have traditionally been on island games. So as good and as tempting as rostering the Brow is, I would definitely reserve him for GPP action.

Serge Ibaka FD - $6200 DK - $6200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.08 DK - 38.96
Ibaka has a fantasy matchup made in Candy Land tomorrow. He'll be facing the woeful Brooklyn Nets, who also run at the fastest pace allowing for opponents; inflated offensive possessions. And we'll even throw in the fact that the Nets are ranked 22nd against PF/C's.  Vuce sitting will inflate Ibaka's usage in this golden matchup to borderline core play capabilities. The last 2 remedial match-ups Ibaka had he posted 39 and 38 points respectively. Expect him to exceed value tonight if the minutes are there.

Jabari Parker FD - $6300 DK - $6600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.02 DK - 33.48
Not putting him on the list because of yesterday's performance. In fact, we wrote him up yesterday in anticipation of the matchup with Bulls. Here's what we wrote:
He's a little more scoring dependent than I tend to like my power forwards, but if he's going to top 20 shots a game (like he has in 2 of his last 4) then we can look past it I suppose. The Bulls are a league average match-up here, and Parker should turn in another steady performance.
He hit most of his upside yesterday and I suspect he's a chalkier play today because of it. I think you can go back to the well here, but I wouldn't expect the same kind of top end outcome.

Centers

Joel Embiid FD - $7100 DK - $7400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.56 DK - 40.74
With Okafor now on the court to start the game with Joel, the usage likely takes a hit. Not a tremendous downswing but enough that we might feel it as these prices. Embiid, on the 27 minutes cap needs a lot to go right above $7K, but the Lakers are the team to make that happen. They are allowing 6% more scoring than league average to the position and Embiid remains one of the highest usage guys in the game. The Sixers will stagger their bigs' minutes enough too that you aren't worried about the time share and Embiid remains in the fantasy elite class.

Bismack Biyombo FD - $4600 DK - $5200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.68 DK - 27.99
In the "All Vuce Dependent" Category, Bismack falls right in line. Without the backup center, Biyombo's been called on to play big minutes and solidify the Magic interior. He's played around 34 minutes in each of the last three games and would be in line for similar run if Vuce sat again. With his fantasy profile, Bismack needs all the minutes he can get. He's not any type of scorer and really needs to the rebounds and blocks to round out his overall line. That's more than doable against a weaker Nets' squad. Biyombo has double digit rebounding potential here and I like the FanDuel price much more if he's the lone big down low for Orlando.

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