Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/13/17
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This is one of the more interesting slates we've looked at in a while. With 16 games on the day, we have a plethora of options to choose from. At pitcher, you have plenty of options. While 3 may stand out above the rest, you can go a multitude of different ways in tournaments. Make sure to check out the pitcher-specific article for some tournament pivots. As for cash games, Kluber is going to be the top dog. He has one of the best possible matchups in the league and moves into a top 10 pitching ballpark. If you don't like Kluber here, you are never allowed to play him again. The guy has been elite on the season and there's an argument that he's been the best, sporting a .247 combined wOBA and 12.41 K/9. He has gone over 110 pitches twice on the season and will be trusted to go for 9 innings in the right spot. This Rays team could definitely be that spot, as they've ranked 28th in baseball against righties and strikeout the 2nd most at 25%. While there are a lot of options on the slate, you can expect Kluber to be highly owned. Along with Scherzer, expect 25-30% in cash games. I'll take it all day.
In cash games, Kluber and Scherzer are easily my favorite options. On FanDuel, it's going to be a coin flip that likely dependent on the opposing lineup strength. Scherzer sees the best possible match-up in baseball against the Giants, who have posted a .291 wOBA against righties on the year. They don't K a ton, but they also don't face Max Scherzer every night. Scherzer averages over 12 K's per 9 and will force a conservative team to K plenty. Against righties, there's no point of stepping in the box. A .193 wOBA and 14.06 K/9 against righties is purely insane and all-time level elite. Against lefties, a .302 average is normal. The Giants are righty heavy and the only lefties are fillers outside of Belt. There's a reason they have sat nearly .14 points below the 2nd worse team in the league. Scherzer is going to have. Dominant start and it will simply come down to what the other guys on the slate do. To be clear, Kluber and Scherzer have far more safety than any other arm(s) on the slate.
The Dodgers are always going to be one of the top offenses on the slate. When at home against a righty, they deserve to be. They face off with Luis Perdomo here, who hasn't been good against lefties. He's allowed a .380 wOBA in nearly 50 innings while striking out 6 and walking 4. The Dodgers are projected to put up 5 runs here and are one of the best match-ups on the board. Yasmani Grandal, a switch-hitter, hits better from the left side. He has the HR potential tonight and is sitting at a very reasonable price tag. He makes sense in both formats and is fairly priced around the industry.
Chris Gimenez FD 2000 DK 2100
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 8.49 DK - 6.64
If you're paying up at pitcher like you probably should, you're going to have some trouble paying up for bats. You'll need to punt in a few spots and there is none better than the catcher position. Chris Gimenez will be the first Twins bat we look at, but definitely not the last. He's held a solid .310 wOBA against lefties and does have a little pop with 5 homers. His bottom of the barrel price is interesting in both formats as he can give you some upside while saving a ton of money. All in all, Gimenez is a phenomenal pivot from Grandal.
Jose Abreu FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.35 DK - 8.69
First Base is always going to have a plethora of options to choose from. You can pay up for safety and upside, or punt for pure upside. In that middle tier, you get a guy like Jose Abreu. Abreu, who is better against lefties, has been phenomenal against both righties and lefties and Guaranteed Rate Field. He's destroying the ball this season with a 38% hard contact rate and has taken care of every other peripheral. Jason Vargas, a lefty, is nothing to be afraid of. While he started the season hot, we all knew he was an average pitcher that would eventually return to normalcy. His true talent against righties is sitting around a .330 wOBA against righties and I can't say I hate the White Sox stack they aren't a very great offense on most nights, but could go under owned and make for a low-owned high-upside stack. As for Abreu in particular, he's cheap enough to play in all formats.
Eric Thames FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @MIL
FD - 14.11 DK - 10.92
If Jose Abreu against Jason Vargas doesn't float your boat, there are some pivots. One of which being Eric Thames. Thames and the Brewers crew have hit righties very well this year, with Thames, in particular, holding a .432 wOBA. They face one of the worst pitchers on the day and make for a very high-end option with Sal Romano on the mound. Romano has given up a .366 wOBA so far, but has also been a victim of severely small sample size. He figures to struggle against lefties and in Miller Park, you have to expect the home runs. Thames is one of the top dogs at first base and can hit 2 HR with the blink of an eye. He's elite in both formats and very affordable on FanDuel. Don't be afraid to take a shot.
Scooter Gennett FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.78
We've touched on the Brewers side of the diamond, but haven't looked at the Reds just yet. Facing off with Matt Garza, you have to love the offense as a whole. Guys like Joey Votto and Adam Duvall make for excellent plays, but aren't the top 2 or 3 in their respective position. Instead, it'll be our boy, Scooter Gennett. Gennett is very affordable, sociable, and most importantly, ready to play some baseball. So far in 2017, Scooter has posted a .396 wOBA against righties. He has some low-key power and will rarely kill a rally. Garza is one of the more average pitchers on the slate and he has a lot of trouble against left-handers. Miller Park is a + hitting park and both of these offenses will look to take advantage.
Brian Dozier FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 13.11 DK - 10.46
If you have the extra funds to spend at 2B, go ahead. Scooter Gennett is a phenomenal option, but Dozier has far more upside. Dozier is one of the top power hitters in the league and when facing a lefty, automatically vaults into elite production. Dozier has sported a .412 wOBA against lefties and does have 22 HR on the season. Matt Boyd is a very average young lefty that doesn't bring much to the table. In around 70 innings against righties, he's allowed a .369 wOBA and 10 homers in 70 innings. The righties in this Twins order are some of my favorites plays on the day and could go under-owned like crazy. If you do have the extra money to spend, get Dozier and hope for some power upside.
Corey Seager FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.64
To start us off at shortstop, we're going to keep an eye on these Los Angeles Dodgers. Corey Seager is going to be one of the best players in history from this era (IMO) and I can't find a bad time to play him. This match-up with Luis Perdomo is something that should matter more, but it didn't. He's allowed a .380 wOBA to lefties and with half of his games in Petco, the numbers are a bit skewed. Dodgers Field is no hitters paradise, but it's smaller than Petco and more comfortable for the squad. Seager and his .404 wOBA against righties since 2015 are impressive. He's an option for both cash games and tournaments. Shortstop is certainly one of the weaker positions and Seager gives you both safety and upside at a reasonable tag.
Marwin Gonzalez FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.42 DK - 9.06
Gonzalez jumps around from position to position, so it's nice to have him at a weaker SS position. Gonzalez is one of the top hitters in an order that has dominated baseball. He's also a switch-hitter, though MUCH better against righties. In nearly 300 at-bats this season, Gonzalez has posted a .427 wOBA and 16 homers. Andrew Cashner is lackluster at best and offers no resistance to this lethal Astros squad. He's given up a .360+ wOBA ago both sides of the plate and is simply a poor pitcher. Gonzales is an elite hitter and sitting in a spot on the slate where he may go mostly ignored. SS is very solid today and I won't be getting off the beaten path. Take advantage and don't let yourself make a weird mistake.
Travis Shaw FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.28
As Eric Thames go, as does Travis Shaw. When one is in play, so is the other. As the 2 big lefty bats in the order, they are responsible for right-handed pitching and it's demise. Fortunately for these guys, Sal Romano isn't too good. He's actually pretty horrible and I expect the Brew Crew to have another big game.Romano is a young righty who will be moving on the road and seeing a Vegas total close to 5. He doesn't have a huge pedigree and isn't expected to be some kind of superstar. Shaw has held similar numbers to the Thames with a .400 wOBA exact. Shaw has the crazy HR potential but also brings some safety in the worst case. His price is fine and you can definitely fit the Brewers while paying up at pitcher.
David Freese FD 3000 DK 3400
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.4
As long as baseball is in the air, you can more than likely expect some Houston Astros to be recommended in the OF. They have a set of OF's that are dominant against both sides of the plate and extremely versatile at that. Against righties like Cashner, Reddick and Springer are he best bets. They have each held a .381 wOBA or better against righties and don't look to slow down anytime soon. Cashner has posted a .361 wOBA a for years now and is at the point where he's going though the motions. The 'Stros could easily go off here and nobody would be surprised in the slightest.
The Twins have been one of our top targets so far on this slate and the fact remains, Matt Boyd isn't very good. Boyd has allowed a .370 wOBA to righties and has trouble keeping the ball in the park. From Dozier to Gimenez to Grossman, these guys can all hit the ball. Both Grossman and Buxton are effective against lefties and have plenty of power inside Comerica Park. Grossman, a switch-hitter, is better from the right side. You then get Buxton, who has been the top prospect in baseball for years and years. He is a good player and no matter what bias you hold, throw it away. The upside is humoungous and the downside isn't big here. When you look at the prices, you're reminded why. At just under $3300 on DK, you can afford both of these guys. Boyd is going have his troubles with this Twins offense and you may be able to get a 4 man stack for only 3-5% owned. There's always a lot of different ways to go in the OF, so it'll be interesting to see what went down.
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