featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/21/2017
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Games 11/23/17

The single greatest day of the year is just around the corner. A day to sit down with family and gently nudge them out of the way so you can see the football game without having to move too much because you've completely engorged yourself on food that we only eat once a year (because it's completely overrated fare). Ah Thanksgiving!

We've got the traditional three-game slate spread out over the course of the day with some intriguing fantasy options. For cash games, I do think the chalk will be heavy on certain players, but that doesn't mean we can't sniff out some value. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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Quarterback

Kirk CousinsKirk Cousins FD 8800 DK 7100
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 22.24 DK - 23.32
The Redskins are coming off a pretty crushing overtime loss to the Saints in which they blew an 11 point fourth quarter lead. You really can’t put it on the shoulders of Cousins who completed 22 of 32 passes for a 322/3 line against a New Orleans defense that came into the week 4th in DVOA against the pass. It was an impressive performance made to look even better considering he lost one of his best pass-catching option in Chris Thompson early in the game. The Redskins are -7.5 favorites against the Giants who are coming off an impressive win of their own last week. But New York allows the 6th most opponent offensive plays and have basically sucked on defense all year. This is a great spot for Cousins and appears the safest QB play on the short slate.

Matthew StaffordMatthew Stafford FD 7700 DK 6000
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 17.86 DK - 0
It stands to reason the Lions will not be able to run the ball at all in this game. They’ve struggled on the ground all season long and now face the 5th ranked run defense in the Vikings. I think we could see close to 40 attempts for Stafford who’s sneakily the the 8th highest scoring fantasy quarterback on the season. He won’t run much (if at all) but has a 63% completion percentage and should be in for steady volume. With the early home game, and playing as potential underdogs I see Stafford as an easy GPP pivot off of Cousins and significantly cheaper than Dak.

Running Back

Melvin GordonMelvin Gordon FD 8400 DK 8100
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 17.52 DK - 19.51
The Eagles just completely shredded the the Cowboys on the ground last week, using a team approach to compile a crazy, college-like 33/215/2 line, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Dem Boys have struggled all season against the run (26th in DVOA) and take a major hit with Sean Lee injured. The latter will sit again this week and it stands to reason the Chargers will look to get Gordon going early. Gordon ranks sixth among active running backs in per game usage (22.2 rushing attempts + receiving targets) and last game basically took an entire half off because the Chargers were boat-racing the Bills. Expect heavy volume in this game in a plus matchup. The game is a pick’em with the Chargers on the road, which tells you a lot about the current state of the Cowboys.

Samaje PerineSamaje Perine FD 7600 DK 5000
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 15.42 DK - 16.63
The bad news first: he’s not all that good. In 89 carries this season he’s amassed only 327 yards (3.7 YPC) and a single touchdown (last week). The good news: he’s basically the last man standing in the Washington backfield. Rob Kelley went on the IR and Christ Thompson is lost for the season after the injury on Sunday. With the opportunity Perine saw his season high in carries (20) and yards (117). This is a perfect running back spot with the Redskins -7.5 home favorites against a Giants’ run defense ranked 27th in DVOA. There’s also some chance with the current roster that Perine becomes an every down back in this offense. He’s had some work in the passing game and if that’s the case then he has as much upside as Gordon on this slate. Quick update: It looks like Byron Marshall will take over some 3rd down duties for Thompson. It will cut some into Perine's usage, but he's still a play.

Strongly consider Alfred Morris who looked better last week (to some degree) and faces a Charger defense whose weakness is the run. McCoy tore them up on limited touches last week and the 17/91 from Morris last week is a welcome sign (even in the blowout).

Also strongly consider Orleans Darkwa coming very cheap on DraftKings. He’s averaging 16 carries and 2 targets a game over his last five with that usage coming independent of game script (mostly the Giants losing). Because of that I do see him as somewhat safe for his price even as the underdog.

 

Wide Receiver

Keenan AllenKeenan Allen FD 8000 DK 7300
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 14.49 DK - 17.86
After some tough matchups over the last month with some more shadow coverage than he would have liked, Allen returned to WR1 status with an elite performance against the Bills. He saw a season-high 13 targets and a GPP-winning 12/159/2 line made even more impressive that it basically all went down in three quarters because of the blowout. Allen had seen double digit targets in four of the first five weeks before some game script/ matchup issues cut into his production. It looks like he’s fully back as the possession receiver you write home about (or write on a DFS site about). He’ll likely draw a lot of Orlando Scandrick in the slot which rates out as a plus matchup for Allen. The price is up after last week’s performance but he’s the safest WR play on the slate.

Jamison CrowderJamison Crowder FD 6300 DK 5400
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 13.49 DK - 17.3
Crowder was looking fairly bust-ish last week until three catches on the final drive in regulation got him to a 7/72 line on 8 total targets. It wasn’t a standout performance, but that was a staunch Saints’ secondary and Crowder’s price is still firmly in the lower/ middle tier. We’ll take it. The Redskins are now without one of their primary “possession” targets in Chris Thompson and could still be without Jordan Reed. He’s basically a lock on DK for $5400 considering the implied volume, especially if the Skins struggle to get the run game going (completely in play with Perine).

GPP targets
Mike Williams took over the WR3 role for the Chargers last week, outsnapping Travis Benjamin and out targeting Tyrell Williams on his way to an 8/38 line. He’s coming very cheap on DraftKings and could be a solid punt play if the snaps stick in a shootout.

Josh Doctson is starting to become the downfield threat the Redskins were hoping Terrelle Pryor would be. The former didn’t work out, but Doctson has 14 targets over the last two weeks and if he can avoid Janorius Jenkins then I think he’s got a lot of upside for his price.

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Tight End

Vernon DavisVernon Davis FD 6400 DK 5500
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 14.32 DK - 17.58
This is 100% contingent on Jordan Reed's availability. If the latter can give it a go (and he was close-ish on Sunday) then Davis is off the table and Reed is too risky coming back from injury, But Davis is still coming in at a value against a Giants' team that's been slaughtered by tight ends all season. Last week was the first time they hadn't allowed a touchdown to a tight end, though Travis Kelce sort of made up for it with an 8/109 line on 14 targets. The lack of a touchdown seemed only to be because the rest of his team (i.e. his quarterback) sucked. It's been an easy formula all year: TE + Giants' D = value.

Kyle RudolphKyle Rudolph FD 5800 DK 4100
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 9.37 DK - 11.95
He doesn't have nearly the matchup as Davis, but if the former is off the table, then Rudolph makes an excellent pivot. He's averaging a super-steady 7 targets per game over the last four weeks and is second on the team, behind Adam Thielen, in red zone looks. I don't mind him as a price play to pay up for some of the more expensive RBs and WRs on this slate either and he does have touchdown upside.

Defense

Minnesota Vikings
FD 4800 DK 3300
Opponent DET

O/U 44.5 MIN -4.5
Proj Points FD - 8.03 DK - 8.03
 

Washington Redskins
FD 5000 DK 3600
Opponent NYG

O/U 45.5 MIN -7.5
Proj Points FD - 7.94 DK - 7.94

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our MLB Optimizer, and our new Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

7 Visitor Comments

  1. Thoughts on this lineup (fanduel)?

    Stafford
    Perrine
    Morris
    Tate
    Marvin Jones
    Keenan
    Rudolph
    Redskins Defense
    Forth

    • this is for thanksgiving only?
      I would try to squeeze in Theilen somehow instead of Tate. Maybe take a shot downgrading defense

    • It appears you don’t want to win any money with that lineup Christian. Have you not paid any attention to football at all this season?

      As for the writers, would it kill you guys to double check your shit every now and then? The number of grammar errors you guys allow is absurd.

  2. Why would you play all those Lions vs MIN def

  3. 2 lions wrs seems like too much. Personally I don’t mind Tate, but even playing him feels like just taking a shot against the vikes. Not ideal for 50/50’s or similar contests IMO.

  4. Thoughts on this 50/50 (DK)
    Wilson, Kamara, Lewis, Jeffrey, Kupp, Baldwin, Olsen, Coleman, Falcons

  5. Erik = Thanksgiving jerk off….

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