Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/15/2019
Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 4/16/19

For this Tuesday slate, we get a full 15-game schedule. That’s all we can ask for as baseball fans, especially considering how bad my Rockies suck right now. In the first couple of months, it’s imperative to focus on weather. With that in mind, the games we need to pay attention to are NYM-PHI, STL-MIL, KAN-CWS and PIT-DET. All of these games have light rain in the forecast and we need to take that into consideration when filling out our lineups. So with that in mind, let's get to some of our favorite pitchers...

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Pitchers

Tyler GlasnowTyler Glasnow FD 10600 DK 10600
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - TB
FD - 40.62 DK - 21.95

Starting pitchers against Baltimore is always a good idea, especially when it's one of the hottest arms in the majors. In fact, Glasnow owns a .053 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP while striking out 21 batters across 17 innings in three starts this season. That alone makes Glasnow tough to fade but facing the Orioles is simply the icing on the cake. Not only does Baltimore rank 27th with a .292 xwOBA, they also rank 23rd with a .661 OPS. Not to mention, Glasnow enters this matchup as a -260 favorite, with the Orioles projected to score right about three runs. 


Stephen StrasburgStephen Strasburg FD 10900 DK 10300
Opponent - SF (Dereck Rodriguez) Park - WSH
FD - 37.54 DK - 20.28

Anytime the Giants are on the board, I want to start my pitcher against them. The simple fact is, they're the worst lineup in baseball. I mean, they have Steven Duggar, Gerardo Parra and Kevin Pillar rounding out their outfield while Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt make up the middle of their order. That's obviously terrible but it shows in their numbers. Not only does San Fransisco rank dead-last in total runs, they also rank 29th with a.272 xwOBA. All of those factors would make me want to play any pitcher, let alone a stud like Strasburg, who owns a career 2.93 xFIP and 29 percent K-rate. If you need any more incentive, Strasburg enters this game as a -200 favorite.


Jon GrayJon Gray FD 9300 DK 8700
Opponent - SD (Nick Margevicius) Park - SD
FD - 34.44 DK - 18.22

As a Rockies fan, I can tell you that Gray is very easy pitcher to figure out. When he's at home or facing a tough lineup, he's a sit. When he's facing a weak lineup or pitching in a friendly ballpark, he's a start. Both of those last two factors are in play here, as Gray has always been successful in San Diego. In fact, Gray owns a 2.69 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 15 starts against the Padres, striking out 112 batters across 90.1 innings. His numbers are actually even better in San Diego and it's clear he loves this spacious ballpark. While the Padres have seen some huge improvements from a roster perspective, they still sit 20th in the MLB with a .314 xwOBA this season. That's why this total is sitting at a measly 7, as San Diego is projected to score fewer than four runs.

Team Cash Stacks

 

Washington NationalsWashington Nationals

Park - WSH
Opposing Pitcher - SF (Dereck Rodriguez)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.69

Looking at Dereck Rodriguez' numbers would make it hard to understand why we're stacking against him but there's a lot of underlying statistics that say he has some regression headed his way. The first thing we need to look at his xFIP, as he is posting a 4.50 xFIP dating back to last season. His 2.81 ERA last year was pretty lucky because of his friendly home park and he doesn't get that benefit here either. In fact, Rodriguez owns a wOBA of .301 outside of AT&T Park, as he's clearly not the same pitcher on the road. 

Potential Players to Stack

Juan SotoJuan Soto FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - SF (Dereck Rodriguez) Park - WSH
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.74

Adam EatonAdam Eaton FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - SF (Dereck Rodriguez) Park - WSH
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.24

Anthony RendonAnthony Rendon FD 4700 DK 5400
Opponent - SF (Dereck Rodriguez) Park - WSH
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.15

These are some pretty simple plays here, as it's the heart of the Nationals order. Let's start with Rendon, as he's currently one of the best hitters in fantasy right now. Not only does he lead the Nationals with an absurd .525 xwOBA, he's also one of the league leaders with 14.9 DK points per game. Soto and Eaton are a nice complement to Rendon, considering they get the platoon advantage against Rodriguez. Both of those guys own a .352 xwOBA this season, which is plenty good in its own right. They've also been much better against righties throughout their careers, with Soto owning a .949 OPS against righties while Eaton has posted an .803 OPS. 

Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays

Park - TB
Opposing Pitcher - BAL (Dylan Bundy)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.06

Stacking against Dylan Bundy is always a good idea, as he simply hasn't been the same pitcher over the last two years. If his 5.45 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season isn't enough incentive to stack against him, his 8.76 ERA and 1.76 WHIP this season should be. Those numbers become particularly worrisome against one of the best lineups in baseball, with Tampa averaging 6.5 runs per game across their last five fixtures. 

Potential Players to Stack

Austin MeadowsAustin Meadows FD 4200 DK 5000 
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - TB
FD - 12.6 DK - 9.72

Ji-Man ChoiJi-Man Choi FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - TB
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.54

Yandy DiazYandy Diaz FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - TB
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.67

How can we fade Austin Meadows right now in this matchup? He's simply the hottest hitter in the league. In fact, Meadows is 12-for-22 at the plate over his last five games, accumulating four homers, six runs, two doubles,  11 RBI and four walks in that span. That equates to an absurd .615 OBP and an even more ridiculous 1.797 OPS. As for Diaz and Choi, both of these guys are fantastic values. Not only does Choi own a .341 xwOBA, Diaz has also collected a .363 wOBA of his own. Diaz comes into this matchup rolling too, scoring at least 9.2 FanDuel points in 11 of his 14 games. Using Choi in this $3,000-range is tough to fade when stacking the Rays, as he's hit third for the majority of the season.  

 

 

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