Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/23/2019
Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 4/23/19

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Pitchers

Frankie MontasFrankie Montas FD - P 8400 DK - SP 7600
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - OAK
FD - 32.5 DK - 15.94

Montas has been one of the early-season breakouts and it's hard to overlook his stellar form. Over his first four starts, Montas owns a 2.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while striking out 20 batters across 23.1 innings. What makes that all the more impressive is the fact that two of those starts came against the Houston Astros. In addition, Montas owns a .272 wOBA allowed this season while holding hitters below the Mendoza Line in terms of batting average. While facing Texas isn't necessarily a great matchup, pitching in Oakland is quite the treat. In fact, Oakland Coliseum has surrendered the fewest runs in the majors this season, That's why we have the Rangers projected to score fewer than four runs, with Montas entering this game as a -150 favorite. 

 

Spencer TurnbullSpencer Turnbull FD 7000 DK 7200
Opponent - BOS (Hector Velazquez) Park - BOS
FD - 36.46 DK - 19.23
It's never fun thinking about running out road underdog into the Red Sox lineup as a possible cash game play. But that's something of the nature of the Tuesday slate of pitching. It's pretty damn grizzly out there. Turnbull's had a nice start to the season with a 27% strikeout rate and 3.86 xFIP through his first 21 innings. The k's are bound to come down some (propped up by a 10K performance against the Royals), but I do think the innings tick up some over the course of the season. Again, on a *normal* day for pitching I don't think we'd be considering Turnbull here but our options appear quite limited.

I suppose you can consider Jonathan Loaisiga (FD $5900 DK $6900) against the Angels. He does have big time strikeout stuff, but also has control issues and gives up a lot of free passes.

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Catcher/First Base

Francisco CervelliFrancisco Cervelli FD - C 2300 DK - C 3100
Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - PIT
FD - 8.83 DK - 6.73

Cervelli is our one catcher for the day and his price is the reason we really like him. In fact, Cervelli sat around $3,000 on FanDuel for the majority of last season and around $4,000 on DraftKings. His early-season slump is why his price is so low but there are reasons to be encouraged. Batting in the heart of the order is one reason why, as this is one of the most underrated offenses in baseball. The simple fact is, these struggles can't continue like this. Cervelli is posting a career-high 27 percent K-rate while recording a career-low 7.0 percent BB-rate. That paired with the fact that he has a .200 BABIP means that some positive regression is headed his way, as his .205 xwOBA will inevitably rise. Facing Luke Weaver could be the start of a hot stretch too, as he owns a 4.72 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for his career. 

Jose AbreuJose Abreu FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4300
Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - BAL
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.24

Abreu is one of the best pure hitters in the majors and he's due for some positive regression. Monday's gem may be the start of it, with Abreu going 3-for-5 while collecting five RBI and a home run. That makes him 6-for-14 over the last three games, accruing one double, one homer and seven RBI. He's getting hot just at the right time too, comsidering facing Andrew Cashner is huge for any hitter. In fact, Cashner is allowing a .402 xwOBA to opposing hitters this season, which has led to his putrid 4.97 ERA and 1.54 WHIP

Yonder AlonsoYonder Alonso FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4100
Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - BAL
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.16

Alonso makes for a nice two-man stack with Abreu. The reason for that is because we want to stack against Cashner. Not only is that .402 xwOBA allowed by Cashner downright ugly, he's been even worse against lefties. Over the last three years, Cashner is allowing opposing lefties to post a .535 SLG and .816 OPS. That should be huge for a guy like Alonso, who owns a .768 OPS against southpaws for his career. Not to mention, Alonso is hitting the crap out of the ball with his impressive .372 xwOBA. 

Second Base

Joey WendleJoey Wendle FD - 2B 2600 DK - 2B/SS 3500
Opponent - KC (Homer Bailey) Park - TB
FD - 9.17 DK - 7.16

It's hard to get excited about a guy who doesn't have a hit this season but we're going to bank on him snapping that stretch here. The fact that he hit clean-up on Monday shows that the coaching staff trusts him and that's all we can ask for at this price tag. Batting clean-up in this order is one of the major reasons we really like him, with Tampa Bay averaging six runs per game across their last 12 outings. That alone makes Wendle worth a shot but the hitting profile from year's past is enticing too. In fact, Wendle has cracked a .300 average in both of the last two seasons while owning a strikeout rate below 18 percent. That should become beneficial against Homer Bailey, who owns a league average .337 xwOBA this season and has been one of the worst pitchers in the league the past three seasons. 

Jonathan VillarJonathan Villar FD - 2B 3500 DK - 2B/SS 4900
Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - BAL
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.96

Villar has quietly recaptured his 2017 form and it's hard to understand why he's only $3,500 on FanDuel. Not only is Villar one of the leaders in fantasy points per game at second base, he's scored at least seven DK points in five-straight games. That consistency is hard to fade, especially considering he gets to face a gas can like Ivan Nova. The right-handed pitcher currently owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.43 WHIP and Villar traditionally bats better from the left side. A full on game stack here isn't the worst idea either, as this is projected to be one of the highest totals on the board. 

Shortstop

Gleyber TorresGleyber Torres FD - SS 3200 DK - 2B/SS 3900
Opponent - LAA (Chris Stratton) Park - LAA
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.06

With so many injuries in New York, Torres is now the three-hole hitter for the Yankees. Remember when people were complaining about him batting ninth? Yeah, that should tell you just how many injuries New York has suffered. In any case, Torres is plenty good to be in the heart of any order. In fact, Torres owns a .203 ISO for his career, which is the equivalent of any dominant power hitter. What really makes him intriguing on this slate is his matchup though, with Chris Stratton owning a 7.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP this season. That's why he's the lowest priced pitcher on the board and building a cheap Yankees stack may be an optimal strategy with so many injuries. 

Fernando Tatis Jr.Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 3300 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - SEA (Erik Swanson) Park - SD
FD - 8.9 DK - 6.85

Tatis is putting his hat in the ring for Rookie of the Year and it's clear that his talent can play at any level. Averaging 9.6 DK points per game is impressive enough but he's been even more special recently. After struggling the opening week, Tatis has now collected five homers and three steals across his last 15 games en route to a .333 AVG, .704 SLG and 1.107 OPS. Those are all-star caliber numbers and it's clear that FanDuel is slow to react to that with his $3,300 price tag. Facing Erik Swanson is nothing to fear either, as his xBA of .254 and xSLG of .409 indicates that he has some negative regression headed his way. 

Third Base

Travis ShawTravis Shaw FD - 3B 2300 DK - 3B 3200
Opponent - STL (Daniel Poncedeleon) Park - STL
FD - 10.09 DK - 7.58

Shaw hasn't given us much reason to use him this season but his power potential is hard to overlook. While he has an ISO below .100 this season, he actually has surpassed .240 in each of the last two years, hitting at least 31 homers each year. That means the bat will eventually turn around and it's hard to overlook this unbelievable price. Shaw is typically a $4,500 player on DK and a $3,500 on FanDuel, as we get quite the bargain here because of his early-season slump. Poncedeleon is not a matchup to fear either, with Shaw getting the platoon advantage against a guy who spent the first four weeks in Triple-A. 

Matt CarpenterMatt Carpenter FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4000
Opponent - MIL (Zach Davies) Park - STL
FD - 11.87 DK - 8.85

There's a common trend in this article and we want to continue to bank on guys who will inevitably get better. Carpenter is one of the faces of the positive regression train and he should succeed in a matchup like this. Zach Davies is an average right-handed pitcher and Carpenter owns an .873 OPS and an OBP approaching .400 against righties throughout his career. Davies has traditionally struggled against the Cardinals too, owning a 4.72 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in eight starts against them. Much like most players in this article. Carpenter remains too cheap because of his early-season swoon and we're going to bet on him getting out of that here. A recent hot stretch may be the start of it, with Carpenter scoring at least eight DK points in four of his last five games. while scoring at least 13 DK points in four of his last eight games. 

Outfield

Khris DavisKhris Davis FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - OAK
FD - 11.86 DK - 8.83

Stephen PiscottyStephen Piscotty FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 3600
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - OAK
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.03

Chad PinderChad Pinder FD - OF 2400 DK - 3B/OF 3900
Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - OAK
FD - 9.1 DK - 6.98

Here comes an Oakland A's stack and it's easy to understand why when looking at Lance Lynn's numbers. While his 4.44 ERA and 1.32 WHIP aren't necessarily terrible, his .268 average allowed is a discouraging sign. That's why we like all of these Oakland bats, as they're projected to score more than four runs. Khris Davis is the ring leader and it's easy to understand why when you consider his 10 dingers. As for Piscotty and Pinder, these guys are just too cheap. Pinder's .352 wOBA and .500 SLG shows the sort of upside he presents while Piscotty's .223 ISO from last season speaks loudly too. Don't forget about Matt Chapman either, as he leads this team with a .381 xwOBA. 

Nelson CruzNelson Cruz FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - HOU
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.12

Cruz is hated in the southpaw community because he's killed many of them throughout his career. In fact, Cruz owns a .927 OPS against lefties throughout his impressive tenure. He appears to be finding his form too, with Cruz hitting two dingers on Saturday. Those home runs were inevitable when looking at his absurd hitting profile, with Cruz leading the Twins with a ridiculous .462 xwOBA. That happens to be one of the highest totals in the league and it's quite clear that he's hitting the crap out of the ball right now, despite his average numbers. Facing Miley is great for Cruz too, considering he has one of the worst K-rates in the majors. 

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. Nice T. Shaw & J. Abreau picks yesterday.

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