Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    06/25/2019
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Rocket Mortgage Classic

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

    Rocket Mortgage Classic

    This week the PGA Tour will visit Detroit, Michigan for the first time for a brand new event, the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The host will be the Detroit Golf Club which was founded in 1899 and started out as a six-hole course that has evolved over 100 years into a 36-hole club including the Donald Ross-designed North and South courses. This is where we will be concentrating our time this week as the team at Detroit Golf Club has meshed the two together to feature a new 18-hole layout that will be played by the Tour players this week.

    Like most Donald Ross course's, it is unique as he used the land available to him to create the course rather than moving dirt to fit his design. Looking at some Google Earth images and watching some videos on the course here is my breakdown. It is a tree-lined course with some very tight driving holes and bunkers in key landing zones off the tee. That combined with rough that is projected to be around 3.5" long(higher than Tour average) puts emphasis on the Off the Tee game, especially accuracy. My guess would be that the field will average about 55-60% fairways hit for the week. With four of the 10 Par 4's coming under 400 yards, we will also likely see some "Less than Driver" strategies off the tee as well to ensure position for the second shot.

    The next challenge is the approach shot which, at times, will come from some uneven lies with the undulation throughout the course. The greens also present a challenge as they are slightly smaller than Tour average and also very undulated and expected to be around 12-12.5 on the stimpmeter. When breaking down Strokes Gained: Approach I will be looking closely at Proximity and with the projected lower fairways hit #, I will also be looking at Rough Proximity. Finally, I think scrambling will key once again this week with a new course, the tough fairways, and approaches. My guess is the winning score comes in the -12 to -15  range so it makes sense to look at birdie or better % and/or fantasy scoring as well.

    Let's get into the picks.

    The Course

    Detroit Golf Club
    Par 72 -  7,340 Yards
    Greens - Poa/Bent

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Fairways Gained
    • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • Rough Proximity
    • Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling

    When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.

    Top Tier Targets

    Hideki Matsuyama
    World Golf Ranking (#31)
    Vegas Odds (14/1)
    Draftkings ($10,200)
    FanDuel ($11,300)

    Hideki comes in #2 in my model slightly behind DJ and they are the only two ranked Top 3 and two of only five players ranked Top 10 in all three categories in my model. That doesn't include salary and that is the main reason Matsuyama is my core play this week. He is $1,800 cheaper on DK and $1,200 on FanDuel opening up a more balanced lineup construction. He has yet to win in 2019 but has been very consistent making all 15 cuts in stroke-play events with four Top 10's and is 5th overall in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green(26th OTT, 4th APP, 17th ATG) on Tour. There is a path to using him for cash on DraftKings as the cheapest $10K+ player but is best for cash on FanDuel and he is my core player in GPP builds on both sites.

    Ryan Moore
    World Golf Ranking (#75)
    Vegas Odds (33/1)
    Draftkings ($9,500)
    FanDuel ($10,200)

    The top tier is filled with overpriced golfers as there are only three Top 20 players(OWGR) in the field. I feel the key to GPP this week is loading up on the one who makes you feel the least sick as you click submit on your lineups. Seriously, though, Moore fits the model this week as he ranks 3rd in Fairways Gained and 6th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds which should translate to success here at Detroit Golf Club. It was close for me between Moore and Horschel but for GPP, the selling point was the upside. Over the same last 24 round sample, Horschel ranks 102 in Opportunities Gained and 90th in Birdie or Better Gained while Moore ranks 17th and 19th in that same sample. To top it off, Moore also ranks 12th in Par 5 scoring and 2nd in Donal Ross performance which includes gaining strokes ball striking in 10 of his last 12 rounds(Wyndham '17, Tour Champ '16, Wyndham '16).

    Mid Tier Targets

    Rory Sabbatini
    World Golf Ranking (#111)
    Vegas Odds (55/1)
    Draftkings ($8,500)
    FanDuel ($9,400)

    While it appears the form is trending in the wrong direction, I am not too concerned about a T43 at the U.S. Open in that field. Overall, it was his 11th straight made cut which includes three Top 10's and five Top 25's and he has also gained strokes ball striking in nine straight events as well. While the price went up there is still value there for me this week especially looking at the recent stats model(via Fantasy National). He ranks 23 in SG: Off the Tee and 30th in Fairways Gained, 21st in SG: Approach, 2nd in SG: Around the Green, and 4th in Par 4 Scoring. While the sample size is small and goes back to 2013, Sabbatini is #1 in performance on Donald Ross courses gaining strokes ball striking in 10 straight rounds. I will have exposure in all formats.

    Kevin Streelman
    World Golf Ranking (#87)
    Vegas Odds (45/1)
    Draftkings ($8,600)
    FanDuel ($9,500)

    Right in the same price range we Kevin Streelman who has also been on form lately. He comes into this week having made six straight cuts and hasn't just been a high-floor cash play as he has also reeled off a 6th(Valero), T6(RBC Heritage), 4th(Memorial), and T15 last week at the Travelers. In this field, no one has gained more strokes on the approach(27.4) in the last 24 rounds and he also ranks 4th in par 4 scoring, 24th in par 5 scoring, and 3rd in fantasy scoring in that time. Pairing Streelman with Sabbatini is my core for cash games and will also stack them in some balanced GPP builds.

    Value Targets

    Hank Lebioda
    World Golf Ranking (#365)
    Vegas Odds (200/1)
    Draftkings ($6,900)
    FanDuel ($8,000)

    I was quite surprised when I first updated my sheet and saw two players ranked Top 10 in the $7K or less range on DraftKings. Breaking down the numbers it makes sense as he is 32nd in SG: Off the Tee and Fairways Gained, 27th in SG: Approach, and 17th in fantasy scoring over the last 24 rounds. The rookie hasn't been in the spotlight very much at all this season but is just two spots outside the FedEx Cup Top 125 with few events remaining. He fits what I am looking for this week and I am willing to take the risk in stars and scrubs cash lineups and is my favorite value play for GPP formats.

    Stephen Jaeger
    World Golf Ranking (#277)
    Vegas Odds (150/1)
    Draftkings ($7,100)
    FanDuel ($8,100)

    I have been waiting for my time to pull the trigger on Mr. Jaeger and this is the time. He has been playing the best golf of his young career lately with a T17 at the Byron Nelson, T14 at the RBC Canadian Open, and a T30 at the Travelers last week. Overall, the stats are ugly(don't look at them!) but stand out lately as he has gained 12.8 strokes tee to green over those last three events. I know that is nowhere near sustainable and that is why I am rolling him out in GPP only at about 5-10% exposure throughout my lineups.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

    Post a Reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

     

    FREE EBOOK

    SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
    DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.

    DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

    Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

    Your eBooks are on their way!