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GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 7 on FanDuel and DraftKings
Welcome back football fans. Doug and James covered the top cash games plays earlier in the week and also broke down every game from a fantasy perspective on the weekly Mega Podcast. In this article, I am going to look at a couple of leverage plays for us to pivot to in GPP formats to get lower ownership.
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Of those four teams on bye in Week 7, we lose a ton of running back talent in Nick Chubb, James Conner, and Christian McCaffrey. This combined with some plus matchups really narrows the field of top running backs and will naturally raise their ownership levels but on the flip side also presents some opportunities to pivot off the chalk(Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Saquon Barkley).
Even in the mid-range, there are some pivots as Latavius Murray is gaining steam with Kamara being ruled out. My pivot in this range will be with Matt Breida who appears could be about half the ownership of his own teammate Tevin Coleman. The 49ers get an excellent matchup against a Redskins team that has given up the 10th most rushing yards and 5th most receiving yards to running backs. Coleman is going to get the bulk of the carries(34-24 last two weeks) but Breida is the preferred passing-down back. Either way, both backs should get a ton of work this week with the 49ers a 10-point favorite against a weak defense and they run(57%) more than any other team in the league. I also like to see that the combined rushing/receiving yards prop for Breida is actually set a yard higher than Coleman.
I will have exposure to both running backs in this matchup but if Breida continues to be projected for half the ownership, I may run more of a 70/30 split between them.
At wideout, there is a group of six wideouts that have accumulated a lot of discussion on FanShare this week all getting over 20 tags. I am going to concentrate near the top where Cooper Kupp is expected to see a ton of ownership despite coming off a bad game a week ago and it makes sense as he goes up against a borderline terrible Falcons secondary. While it looks like a "sure thing" or "lock" remember this is fantasy sports and anything can happen. Not that I am going to bank on a dud two weeks in a row from one of the most reliable wideouts in the game but there is most definitely a chance it happens especially considering he shares the ball with two other above-average wideouts in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks who are also nice pivot options in the same game.
Cooks has most definitely been a GPP only play this season getting just 15% of the target share for the Rams but has big upside with an average depth of target(aDOT) just over 15 yards(Top 20 in NFL) and is also averaging 14.6 air yards per target. He will be a quarter of the ownership of Kupp with similar upside in the same game with huge shootout potential.
I will also be pivoting to Adam Thielen who will most likely be somewhere in the 5-8% owned range with just eight tags so far this week on FanShare. The matchup isn't as bad as it looks going up against Darius Slay and Justin Coleman and more good news as Thielen is projected to mostly see Rashaan Melvin who has been arguably their worst corner. Also swaying the ownership a bit for Thielen is the fact Dalvin Cook will command a ton of ownership himself and some people may even chase the big Diggs game last week. I am all over Thielen who has caught 13 of 16 targets for 187 yards over the last two weeks.
Also Consider: DeAndre Hopkins(HOU) as a possible sub 10% owned pivot off Cooper Kupp, Golden Tate(NYG) as a lower owned pivot off Woods, Hilton and Chark in the mid-range of wideouts, or Aaron Jones(GB) as a very low owned option at running back after the debacle last week