Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 11/13/19
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Point GuardRussell Westbrook FD - $9900 DK - $8900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 51.11 DK - 52.39
No Eric Gordon and no Danuel House and the already kind of thin Rockets are looking even thinner. If he can avoid foul trouble, which has been no easy thing and if the game can stay out of blowout (also not easy for Rockets) then we could see Russ drift towards 36-37 minutes in this game against the Clippers. The rebounding has dropped off some of late for him which could be a shift in philosophy for the Rockets or could merely be a blip on the radar. It’s a little tough to tell though he has played fewer minutes of late because of weird game script stuff. He’s still racking up steals in a big way and I do think the floor is very high in this game for Westbrook because of the Houston injuries.
Terry Rozier FD - $7000 DK - $5600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 34.73 DK - 35.58
It’s been an up and down season for the disaster contract the Hornets signed Rozier to in the offseason. He’s basically paid like a max player who is priced more like mid-tier role guy. And that’s fine because his contract is of no concern to us. We only really sweat the performance relative to price. And on that front, there is stuff to like about Rozier on Wednesday. For starters, he’ll face a Memphis team playing the 23rd ranked defensive efficiency on the season. Couple that with some peak and valley games out of Rozier because of the minutes and I do think you are getting him at something of a value. Per 33 minutes he’s averaging 15/4.6/3.8 and is actually running bad from the field of late, hitting only 27% of his threes over the last five games. This is a fine price, especially on DraftKings.
If Joel Embiid sits, Ben Simmons (FD 8400 DK 6800) would make a very nice DraftKings play at that price.
Shooting GuardFred Vanvleet FD - $7500 DK - $7100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.07 DK - 41.18
No Kyle Lowry. No O.G. Anunoby and all of a sudden the already top-heavy Raptors team gets a little thinner. It’s meant crazy minutes out of their starters already and that’s set to continue going forward. It’s why you’ll see a lot of the purple and black in these picks for Wednesday. After double-doubling the previous two games, VanVleet *only* had 14 points and eight assists against the Clippers despite playing 45 total minutes. The latter piece is what has us on him and a bunch of Toronto guys for this slate. The minutes floor is insanely high and this is a good matchup against the Blazers. FVV isn’t ever going to be a high volume shooter, but the Raptors’ injury situation is going to press that for sure.
Norman Powell FD - $4800 DK - $4900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.58 DK - 28.28
Powell is another of the Raptors who sees increased minutes opportunity with O.G. and Lowry out of the lineup. He played a season-high 37 minutes against the Clippers and finished with 15 points and and four rebounds despite going 1-5 from three. The price is still firmly in the punt territory and that’s great news because he makes a relatively easy play in cash games on the minutes alone. Again, this is a much easier matchup against the Blazers than what the Raptors got from the two L.A. teams earlier in the West Coast trip. I suspect we see high ownership on Powell on Wednesday.
I don’t mind a middle-tier DeMar DeRozan (FD 7600 DK 7000) against the Timberwolves.
Small ForwardPascal Siakam FD - $9700 DK - $8700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 51.8 DK - 52.97
Like I said, the Raptors were already playing super tight rotations and they just lost one of their key guys in O.G. Anunoby. They haven’t been shy about playing Siakam major minutes this season and over the last two he’s played all but 10 total minutes (42 and 44). His shooting was terrible in both (15-42 from the field) but this is a volume play plain and simple. Few other players in the game have his kind of minutes floor going forward and even if he played just high 30’s minutes he’d be something of a value on these prices. When the shot does fall even a little, he’ll completely crush them. Siakam is an easy play for me tonight against a Portland team who doesn’t have much in the way of interior defense outside of Whiteside.
Jaylen Brown FD - $7200 DK - $7300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 41.54 DK - 42.15
We projected a sizable usage and minutes opportunity increase for Brown going into last game with the loss of Gordon Hayward, and dude didn’t disappoint. He played 38 minutes in the win over the Mavericks and scored 25 points on 9-16 shooting (5-7 from three) and while also leading the team in rebounds with 11. His price saw a dramatic game-over-game increase but he’s still for sure a mid tier play against Washington on Wednesday. The Wizards are playing the second-worst defensive efficiency in the league right now with no real hope of getting better especially if they want to keep giving Isaiah Thomas more minutes.
If Anthony Davis sits the second half of the back-to-back then LeBron James (FD 11800 DK 10700) may just vault to the top overall big money play on the slate.
Power ForwardAl Horford FD - $7200 DK - $5900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.78 DK - 36.18
Horford sat the front end of the back-to-back on Tuesday against the Cavs and the speculation is that he’ll start on Wednesday with Embiid sitting. In the three games Embiid has missed this season, Horford has crushed. He’s averaging 27 points, six rebounds and five assists with 2+ blocks+steals on 33 minutes. The prices didn’t come close to adjusting on this opportunity. That’s mostly the story on Big Al in this one and it’s an easy one to tell. He’ll be among the highest-owned plays on the slate, if not the highest if Embiid sits and the DraftKings’ price is looking especially like a joke in this scenario.
Jayson Tatum FD - $8400 DK - $7500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 41.42 DK - 42.1
Tatum had a nightmare game against the Mavericks on Monday, going 1-18 from the field in the worst shooting game of his career. The Celtics won their first game without Gordon Hayward despite this performance but it was an atrocious line no doubt about it. That being said, there’s something of a silver lining here. Tatum took the most shots on the team with one more than Kemba Walker. If the the usage hierarchy is going to have a clear three at the top (Tatum, Walker, Brown) then we are still buying low on the opportunity. It’s not small thing to get Hayward’s minutes and shots out of this lineup and I think people will stay away from Tatum because of the one bad shooting night. That would be a mistake.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson FD - $4200 DK - $4500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.36 DK - 26.45
He’ll likely be the other chalk play out of the Toronto group. He soaked up almost all of the Anunoby minutes on Monday and finished with nine points and nine rebounds while throwing in three steals. He’s long been a fantasy points per minute guy who could never really stick with solid run because he’s a bit undersized and can’t shoot the three. But he’s going to get an opportunity here for sure and will be almost a unanimous chalk play.
If Anthony Davis sits, we could get 30+ minutes out of Kyle Kuzma (FD 5000 DK 4100) and he’d make for an instant plug and play in cash games. It’s the B2B for him as well so I guess we’d have to be a bit wary, but he’s coming so cheap on both sites.
CenterRobert Williams FD - $3900 DK - $3900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.01 DK - 24.85
Daniel Theis has already been ruled out for Wednesday and I think that means we see Robert Williams move into the starting lineup at center. It could be Enes Kanter of course, but I think they are bringing him along slowly. Williams is too cheap on both sites if he’s going to get 24-26 minutes out of this role which is a completely reasonable number. Even losing some implied usage running with the starters, his floor is still very higher. He’s averaging six points, five rebounds and 1.6 blocks in just 17 minutes per game. It doesn’t take backbreaking math to figure out that a 50% or so minutes uptick should have him hitting value on these prices.
Marc Gasol FD - $5600 DK - $5500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.03 DK - 28.36
I wrote up a Raptor at every other position, so why stop now? Gasol is the least attractive (basketball-wise, dude’s a dreamboat obviously) of the remaining Raptors from a fantasy perspective. He just isn’t getting much done in the box score within this scheme and isn’t asked to do much either on either end of the court expect man up a defense (which he’s amazing at). But that’s also drifted the price down to almost the breaking point.
Chris Boucher (FD 6500 DK 4300) is still coming cheap on DratKings and can fill it up per minute.
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