Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 11/18/19It's a packed Monday of NBA action and with it comes a bunch of outstanding injury news leading into the slate. We'll cover some of that news along with cash game picks for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Point GuardAaron Holiday FD - $4100 DK - $5500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.24 DK - 33.9
The injury bug has bitten the Pacers hard this season. They already knew they’d be without Victor Oladipo entering the season, but have also lost time on Jeremy Lamb, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis and now Malcolm Brogdon. Aaron Holiday drew the start at point guard on Saturday against the Bucks and went 34 minutes in the blowout scoring 11 points on the second-most shots (18) while chipping in five assists and four rebounds. The three steals were a little defensive run hot, but the 5-18 shooting is below expectation. The trust is likely somewhere in the middle for Holiday, but the minutes floor is very high because of the Pacers’ injuries and he’s still coming in an around punt prices. He’ll be heavily owned once again.
Jeff Teague FD - $6200 DK - $5600
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 33.33 DK - 33.55
Andrew Wiggins is already labeled as doubtful for this game and that should open up more opportunity for Teague. The latter has struggled with injury stuff this season as well as taking much more of a backseat role to the Towns/ Wiggins combo plus some of the other young T-Wolves getting run this season. But last game, with Wiggins out, Teague played 33 minutes, dished 12 assists and took a bigger role in the offense. This isn’t a great matchup against the Jazz, but because of early season stuff Teague is still coming in the lower middle tier. I’d be fine running him again with maybe even some expectation the minutes creep up just a tad.
Shooting GuardJames Harden FD - $12500 DK - $12000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 66.51 DK - 69.79
Russell Westbrook will be back for the Rockets on Monday, but man, I’m not sure it even matters for Harden’s bottom line at this point. The dude is just playing out of his head. There are almost too many numbers to quote here, it’s kind of staggering. He’s scored 42 or more in five of his last seven games. He’s averaging 41 points, seven assists and six rebounds over the month of November. In his last three games he’s taken 49 total threes and knocked them down at a 43% rate. And the Rockets have won their last seven in a row. This dude is just on another level. He’s very expensive and rightfully so. But the minutes are through the roof, the usage is unheard of and the guy draws a matchup he can exploit against the Blazers’ backcourt. This is a cash game play through and through.
Other thoughts Usually I’d write up another player here but there is so much news hanging out there that will turn this position around after Harden.
If Kyrie Irving sits again, both Spencer Dinwiddie (FD $5800 DK $6000) and Garrett Temple (FD $3900 DK $4400) make for fine value plays at their current prices. Both were in foul trouble against the Bulls which submarined their respective minutes. But if Kyrie sat, and already without Caris LeVert then the Nets’ backcourt continues to be very thin.
He’s getting expensive, but the minutes floor is still so high on Fred Vanvleet (FD $7800 DK $7400). He’s averaging more than 40 minutes of run over his last four games and I don’t think that stands to drop at all with the state of the Raptors’ squad right now. He’s taken 15 or more shots in each of the last five games and the assists are there as well. These are still fair prices on FVV.
Small ForwardJustin Holiday FD - $3800 DK - $4200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.77 DK - 25.52
The Holiday brothers were united in Indiana, then they teamed up in the Pacers’ starting lineup and now we can once again roll this family unit out in cash games. Aaron is a little more reliable when it comes to fantasy production, but Justin is coming cheap enough that he offers a chance to punt at small forward. Justin also played 34 minutes on Saturday and finished with a meager nine points and four rebounds. He doesn’t play much on ball so we can’t always expect outsized returns, though we’ve seen some scenarios in the past when he heats up from three and adds in the defensive stats That’s what would we’d be hoping for here as well. It’s a much better matchup against the Nets and I would expect this game to stay close, giving both Holidays plenty of minutes.
Pascal Siakam FD - $9300 DK - $9000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 51.32 DK - 52.49
Like his teammate VanVleet, Siakam has been pressed into huge minutes with the Raptors so thin because of injury issues and whatnot. But the dude’s production has been all over the place. In two of his last three games he’s put up only 15 and 16 points respectively despite taking a ton of shots and playing more than 40 minutes per. That’s because when it breaks bad for him for the field, it really goes awry. In fact, over his last his last four games he’s a combined 8-31 from three and just a meager 38% from the field despite jacking up shots at a high volume. That’s going to lead to some wild lines, but is also what’s kept the price in check. Now he’ll face a Charlotte team ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and without much in the way of wing defenders. This is a smash spot for Siakam and he should be able to hit value on his current salaries if the shot is falling.
There will likely be some debate on Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $12300 DK $11300) or James Harden for cash games. Considering their salaries, playing both doesn’t seem like a palatable option. I’m a little worried about the blowout factor for Giannis which is while I’ll trend Harden. But the former is crushing it this season in his own right. He’s somehow managed to improve on last year’s ridiculous numbers and is better in every category. It’s really nuts.
Power ForwardJarrett Allen FD - $5400 DK - $4900
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.73 DK - 29.73
Allen’s had an up and down go of it lately. After some good games, he had a couple of disasters against Phoenix and Utah that saw him play 30 minutes combined with nine total points and 11 fouls. Then, he bounced back against Denver with a double-double but was mostly benched against Chicago in favor of DeAndre Jordan and played 22 minutes with 11 points and seven rebounds. The volatility has led to some price stagnation which, in general, is a good thing for us in DFS. That means when the minutes come back steady he’ll be a bargain. I think this is one of those times. The Pacers have (potentially) two bigs to handle which means they’ll need Allen’s minutes and I do think the plan if to play him around 30 when things are going well. That last part is the operative line of thinking and there is double-double potential in this matchup.
Dario Saric FD - $5000 DK - $5500
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.33 DK - 27.46
Saric has seen a minutes increase in the short-term running 29 or more in three of the last four games with 12, 18 and 23 points respectively. Part of that has stemmed from him shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, going 9-16 from three leading to increased scoring. The Suns are a somewhat fluid team so there’s no guarantee this recent run maintains, but for now on FanDuel, where the power forward is perpetually thin, rostering Saric in a matchup against Boston isn’t the end of the world at $5K.
I don’t mind Kevin Love (FD 8200 DK 7800) against the Knicks here. He’s been trending back close to his double-double ways and outside of last game when he suffered a stinger and missed some time, the run has been steady.
CenterMyles Turner FD - $6900 DK - $6100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.02 DK - 32.19
In their first meeting of the year, Myles Turner was looking fine against the Nets with seven points and two rebounds in 10 minutes before twisting his ankle and missing two weeks. But he came back strong in his first game after the injury against the Bucks with 16 points and 11 rebounds in 33 minutes. The Nets are still getting moderately worked by opposing centers, allowing 3% more scoring and 4% more rebounding than league average to the position. The other helpful thing for Turner here would be if fellow big Domantas Sabonis sat out with the hip injury. That would open the door for even more minutes and the Pacers haven’t been shy about giving their big men run this season. I’m fine playing Turner either way, but would almost lock him in if Sabonis sat.
Mitchell Robinson FD - $6300 DK - $5400
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 34.57 DK - 31.57
For whatever reason, the Knicks and Coach Fiz just don’t want to start Mitchell Robinson. Per 25 minutes this season, Mitch-Rob is averaging 17 points and nine rebounds and 2.2 blocks. The problem is with the injuries and other stuff (that I can’t quite explain) he’s averaging less than 20 minutes a game. But that’s started to pick up in the short term with 27 minutes off the bench last game and an awesome 17 points and 12 rebounds in the loss the Charlotte. He would draw a good matchup here against the Cavs whether starting or off the bench, but few other players in the game can fill up a stat sheet in limited minutes like Robinson.
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