Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 12/6/19


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Point Guard

Ish SmithIsh Smith FD - $4300 DK - $3600
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 27.11 DK - 27.22

Ish was huge chalk on Thursday night, as he filled in for the injured Isaiah Thomas. With Thomas nursing this calf strain I'd imagine they are just giving him a couple of nights off, and if they do, this is far too cheap for a guy who is truly running the point for 30+ minutes near minimum prices. It's a simple price and opportunity mismatch, and he's a must play everywhere if Thomas sits again.

Spencer DinwiddieSpencer Dinwiddie FD - $8500 DK - $8200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 42.61 DK - 43.97

Dinsanity rages on, as Dinwiddie has essentially stepped into the role that Kyrie vacated. He's averaged 20+ shots and 22 points from the field in the last three games, and some tough shooting luck from his teammate is all that's kept him away from being up near double digit assists as well. Charlotte is stone cold terrible, ranking fourth worst in the league in defensive efficiency with no back-court defense to speak of whatsoever. The Nets are only 2.5 point favorites here, so a tight game should yield lots of minutes and possessions for Dinwiddie to do his thing.

Also considered: Terry Rozier and Jamal Murray as interesting midrange options.

Patty Mills is an interesting big tournament option off the bench for the Spurs.


Shooting Guard

Jimmy ButlerJimmy Butler FD - $9100 DK - $8100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.64 DK - 43.46
Butler has been a DFS beast in his last two games, topping 37 minutes and 52 fantasy points in each of them, a feat that's particularly noteworthy because he still topped both of those figures in a game that the Heat lost by 21 to the Celtics. Tonight he'll grab a far cushier match-up with the Wizards, who as of this very moment are the literal perfect match-up, playing the league's fastest pace and the worst defensive efficiency. What's more, the Wiz have been good enough on offense that they are actually hanging with teams, so a blowout shouldn't be especially likely. Love Butler in all formats here.

Buddy HieldBuddy Hield FD - $8000 DK - $7600
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 38.83 DK - 41.36

Hield is another guy that's stepped into a huge role for his team, topping 39 minutes and 40 fantasy points in each of his last three games. On big slates like this we're fairly likely to get some interesting punts, and getting a rock solid floor on $8,000 worth of salary is even more valuable than usual. While the Spurs have been a scary match-up since DFS was invented, they're rocking their worst defensive unit in 25 years, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency this year. Don't get scared off here.

Also considered: Bradley Beal and Danny Green.

Small Forward

LeBron JamesLeBron James FD - $10800 DK - $10100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 57.29 DK - 59.96
And we start to get to the pay-off portion of the article. LeBron has been magnificent this year, taking his absurd passing powers to their logical conclusion while scoring as well as ever. Watching Portland fall apart has been sort of sad, as the Western Conference finalist from last year hasn't looked the part whatsoever this year. They're also a terrific match-up for James, as they are a bottom 10 defense that plays a top 10 pace. The Lakers are just 3.5 point favorites in Portland as well, so we should see the full run of minutes for Bron.

T.J. WarrenT.J. Warren FD - $5600 DK - $5600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.29 DK - 29.2

Warren is just too cheap for what he's capable of offensively. He's paid 5x-7x points per dollar on this price in 5 of his last 6 games, and the one game where he didn't was a random foul trouble game against Memphis. He paid 5x points per dollar in his last game against Detroit, and scored 40.8 FanDuel points against them in the game before that, and he looks like a rock solid cash game inclusion here.

Also considered: Carmelo Anthony and Harrison Barnes.

Power Forward

Bam AdebayoBam Adebayo FD - $7800 DK - $7500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.09 DK - 44.74
Have you seen the front court defense that the Wizards have been playing recently? Like I wrote above, they are the true dream match-ups for opposing DFS players right now, but they're even worse than that (somehow) against opposing bigs with Bryant sidelined. Ian Mahinmi, Rui Hachimura? None of these guys can stop Bam, who's averaged paying these prices in league average match-ups so far this year. As I'm writing this Embiid just crossed the 20/20 threshold (in spite of missing value thanks to his turnovers). I'd play as much Bam as I can get.

Anthony DavisAnthony Davis FD - $10700 DK - $9600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 59.77 DK - 59.03
Davis and Bron are the two obvious payoffs here on account of the match-up and the raw volume of their team's production they make up. Davis' price is mysteriously down after a single tough game against Utah, but this match-up with Hassan "The Matador" Whiteside is nowhere near on the same level of difficulty. Davis could be 10% more expensive in a week, and now is a prime time to cash in.

Also considered: Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes.


Jakob PoeltlJakob Poeltl FD - $5100 DK - $5800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.94 DK - 28.55

Center is pretty brutal for such a large slate, and I think there's a chance Poeltl is slept on. He played 31 minutes in regulation against Houston, and 26 in the game prior. He's good for about a fantasy point per minute recently, and since he's back in the starting lineup I expect this level of opportunity and production to continue. The Kings are trying to go small with Holmes at the five in many lineups, and Poeltl should be able to stay on the court plenty long enough to hit value here.

The rest:

Hassan Whiteside, even though the Lakers have been tough against opposing bigs this season.

Karl-Anthony Towns is interesting, but the knee scares me just a little bit and I don't know how much money you're going to have available for a high priced center.



2 Visitor Comments

  1. Why would you say Patty Mills is a big tournament play? What would make you say that? I only ask because your value picks have been very suspect. The backup Phoenix PF Diallo yesterday, Emmanuel mudiay the day before. You know the old saying fool me once shame on you…….. So I’m just asking, why is Patty Mills a great tournament option?

  2. Definitely jump into the members chatroom as value changes throughout the day while articles are posted the night before.

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