FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 12/15/19

 
Well it's a four game main slate on FanDuel, kicking off just as the second set of NFL games are winding down. There are a few outstanding pieces of information as of this writing, with Al Horford's status probably being the biggest piece of news. Let's lay a good foundation of preparation in the meantime.

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Point Guard

Ben Simmons FD - $8600 DK - $9300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 44.4 DK - 43.69
Simmons has been pretty hit or miss this season, but he's usually a bit better with one of the other big players out of the lineup. With Horford's potential absence in play here, we can turn to last game and see that Simmons should be capable of big things. He put together 24 points and 11 assists against the Pelicans, and chipped in 5 defensive stats while he was at it. Simmons hasn't faced the Nets yet this season, but they've allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and he should be bringing a pretty solid floor here.

Spencer Dinwiddie FD - $7700 DK - $8200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.55 DK - 40.95
Dinwiddie has been the heart and soul of the Nets' gutty performances without Kyrie, and now you're getting him at a steep discount in an admittedly tough match-up. Our lineup optimizer thinks the price hate has gone too far, though, and has him penciled in for the best fantasy points per minute at the position besides Simmons. Dinwiddie has gone 12 straight games with 35 fantasy points or more, and even if you just take that rather respectable floor you're perfectly happy on this small and tough slate.
Also considered: Trae Young.

 

Shooting Guard

Kevin Huerter FD - $4800 DK - $4000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.74 DK - 24.46
And you thought point guard was looking tough. Huerter's minutes limit was raised to 30 last game, and while he didn't get there fantasy wise this price is simply too cheap on DraftKings. The Lakers are about as bad a match-up as you can ask for, but on a four game slate with two blowouts looming I suppose you could do worse. I still think Huerter brings a respectable floor and the savings allow you to pay up elsewhere.

Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.04 DK - 29.13
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope FD - $4000 DK - $3700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 20.26 DK - 20.46

I don't have a lot of conviction about either of these plays to be honest. KCP is locked into a 30-32 minute rotation, even with Bradley back, and I don't expect that to change here. Getting 30 minutes at $4,000 or less might be too much to pass up on this tiny slate. Bogdan seems like a more expensive version of KCP, to be honest. The minutes are similar, and so is the production. He gets a better match-up here with Golden State, and potentially a more favorable game-script, but he can disappear on you as easily as anyone right now.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $10900 DK - $10300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 56.11 DK - 59.43
LeBron is actually listed as questionable right now, but he's at least saying that he's fine. I would say that there's a little risk here given how badly the Lakers should wallop the Hawks here, but LeBron really isn't the type to play 25 minutes and call it a night. He's one of the premier pay-up options on the slate, assuming the proper cheap plays come together.

Will Barton FD - $6600 DK - $7100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.5 DK - 33.84
Barton will likely be the highest owned small forward tonight if nothing else changes. Like most positions, it's a really tough one, and Barton has a solid match-up with the Knicks here. He will lose his minutes in blowouts, but given that he's averaged 36.5 minutes and 46 fantasy point in his last two games I have to imagine that the short-lived memories of DFS players has him as a top play here.

Also considered: Glenn Robinson, though it's not without risk if Draymond and Russell are both playing.

Power Forward

Jerami Grant FD - $4400 DK - $4700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 27.17 DK - 27.33
Grant wound up being an overwhelming chalk play on Saturday night with Millsap sidelined, and with Millsap likely missing this one as well I suspect we'll see more of the same. While the Knicks have done well to acquire a large quantity of power forwards, they have not exactly crushed it on the quality of their power forwards, as they've allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing fours this season. Not much more analysis needed here - this is a simple price and opportunity mismatch in a great match-up.

Draymond Green FD - $7200 DK - $6500
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.74 DK - 34.36
Draymond took Friday's game off, but he should be back for this juicy match-up with the Kings. We're not on back to back games where Green has played 33+ minutes in regulation, and he just put together a triple double in the over-time game against the Knicks. He's gone for 5x points per dollar reliably recently, and it will be hard to get away from him on a slate where, you guessed it, power forward is pretty rough.

Also considered: Anthony Davis, but we're really running low on funds at this point.

Center

Joel Embiid FD - $10700 DK - $9900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 54.54 DK - 56.26
There are a lot of great pay-up options tonight, but you might be sort of forced to play Embiid here based on your other options, which we'll get to in a minute. It's not a price we're unwilling to pay, though. The Nets have given up the fifth most fantasy points per minute to opposing centers this year, and they won't be able to cheat on Embiid with the additional length Philly can throw at them. Embiid has had an up and down season, but this sure looks like it's shaping up to be an "up" game.

The rest:

We normally like to write up two guys per position, but the rest of the center position is just awful. Neither the Lakers, the Hawks, the Nets, the Kings, or the Warriors field the position for DFS purposes. Jokic and Mitchell Robinson are over-priced. So, it's looking like Embiid.

 

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