Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 12/18/19
After a slow Tuesday night, we're back at it with nine games here. One thing that we love is the fact that no game has a double-digit spread. That's a DFS player's dream and it should make for a big scoring night. Without further ado, let's go ahead and get into it!
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These are some strange prices. Walker has done nothing but produce all season long and he should be $1,000 more on each site. In fact, Kemba is averaging 23.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists en route to over 40 DraftKings points per game. That alone is north of 5X value at this price and we love that he gets a matchup against an undersized Jalen Brunson. His form has been even better recently, averaging 44 DK points per game across his last eight fixtures.
With Doncic out of the picture, Brunson is one of the best values plays on the board. That's about 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists out of the lineup which doesn't even include his 20-plus shots and 30 percent usage rate. Brunson is definitely keen on taking care of a good amount of that, scoring over 37 DK points in the two games Doncic has missed. Playing at least 32 minutes in both of those while receiving starts tells us that he's the go-to guy in his absence and we have to continue to use him until he gets closer to $7,000.
Chris Paul is coming off the best game of his season and gets a super matchup against a bad Grizzlies defense.
With Zion Williamson and J.J. Redick likely missing this game, Holiday should get a ton of shots, minutes and usage. While that's already been the case, we absolutely love that for a talented player like this. We're talking about a guy who's averaging more than 40 fantasy points per game, despite having some shooting struggles recently. That means some 50-point games are right around the corner and a matchup with the T'Wolves is a good way to get one. Not only does Minnesota rank fourth in pace, they also sit 27th in defensive efficiency.
Andrew Wiggins FD - $7800 DK - $7600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 42.3 DK - 42.9
This game is going to be a major target for us because of the expected pace. Both of these clubs actually rank Top-7 in pace which is why we're looking at a total in the 240-range. That sky-high projected total is great news for a stud like Wiggins, with the T'Wolves shooting guard leading the team with 20.3 shots per game and a 29 percent usage rate. That's led to him averaging 40.1 DraftKings points per game which is horrifying news for a Pelicans team who sits 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed.
Collin Sexton has been really good recently and gets a great matchup against the Hornets.
Pascal Siakam FD - $8700 DK - $8800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 42.69 DK - 44.03
With Fred VanVleet expected to miss yet another game, let's ride with Siakam. This dude has been an absolute star this season, averaging 44.6 DK points per game. His recent form is equally as encouraging, with Siakam scoring at least 41 fantasy points in 10 of his last 14 games while averaging 50 DK points per game across his last three fixtures. The reason we love him today is because he faces a Detroit team who sits 19th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. With VanVleet out, look for Siakam to play 35 minutes, take 20-plus shots and lead the team in usage rate once again!
Brandon Ingram FD - $8400 DK - $8000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 43.44 DK - 44.73
Ingram and Wiggins have both had breakout seasons and it's clear that these clubs want to ride these youngsters. Not only does Ingram lead the Pelicans with a usage rate of 31 percent, he's also leading the club with 18.1 shots per game. That has led to him averaging 42.4 DraftKings points per game, one of the best marks you'll see from a player in the $8,000-range. We absolutely love this matchup too, with the ugly Minnesota numbers from the Holiday write-up pairing with the fact that they own a 26th OPRK against opposing small forwards according to DraftKings.
Kevin Love FD - $7100 DK - $6800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 35.75 DK - 39.07
Love is too cheap for someone of his ability. We're talking about a perennial All-Star who's averaging over 35 DK points per game. That's rare to see from a player below $7,000 and this is definitely a situation for him to succeed. Let's start with that matchup, facing a Hornets club who sits 24th in defensive efficiency. The most important part is the fact that this is expected to be a close game, with the Cavs entering as a 3.5-point favorite. The only reason Love's average is lower than it should be is because of limited production in numerous blowouts and a close game could mean more fantasy production than usual. If you're telling me that 35 DK points are the floor in a matchup like this, that's brilliant in this price range.
Draymond Green FD - $6900 DK - $5800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.54 DK - 36.67
Many people think that Green is washed because of all the shooters getting injured in Golden State but recent results would say otherwise. Before scoring just 15 DK points in the last 21-point blowout, Green was actually averaging 35 DK points per game across his previous five outings. What is really important is the fact that he recorded a triple-double in the game before that most recent dud, doing that in 39 minutes of action. That makes one believe that his minute's cap is no more and that's big news from a stat-stuffing player like this. The matchup against Portland is brilliant too, with the Trail Blazers surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing power forwards. Thanks, Carmelo!
Lauri Markkanen is also in consideration with his recent surge.
Also, if he's starting at power forward with the Wizards' injuries then Davis Bertans is a great play on Wednesday.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $10800 DK - $10700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 54.2 DK - 57.39
Towns is easily one of the best raw producers on this slate. There aren't many guys with 70-point upside but Towns is definitely one of those players. That's evident when you see that he's the highest-scoring active player on this slate, averaging 54 DK points per game. His usage has been monstrous recently too, playing at least 35 minutes in seven-straight games while taking 18 shots per outing in that span. If he gets that sort of usage against this horrendous Pelicans defense, look for Towns to be one of the highest-scoring players on this slate.
Steven Adams FD - $6400 DK - $6400
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 32.46 DK - 33.29
Adams appears to be revived recently. Scoring at least 22 DraftKings points in nine-straight games is impressive in its own right but his 37.3 DK points per game in that span is really what has opened up our eyes. That's all you can hope for from a $6,400 player and it's scary that he's doing all that damage in fewer than 30 minutes a game. Getting to face Memphis is the icing on the cake, with the Grizzlies ranked fifth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.
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