Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns for FanDuel and DraftKings Wild-Card Round - Sunday 1/5/20

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Minnesota Vikings (8) vs. New Orleans Saints (-8)

The NFC part of the weekend kicks off on Sunday at 1PM EST with the Vikings and Saints. New Orleans comes in as eight-point home favorites, the biggest spread of the weekend. They won their last three games with the final one a destruction of the Carolina Panthers. The Vikings meanwhile lost their final two, though Week 17 doesn’t really count because they rested just about every relevant starter.

Vikings

It’s tough to find a ton of value on the Vikings side for this short slate. For starters, the running back situation is far from clear. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison are both expected to play after sitting out the last two weeks. It was the Mike Boone “show” during that time, but he should head back to the bench. It’s tempting to project Cook for max snap share in this game considering the leverage situation and that makes him tempting. But New Orleans is a top-5 run defense this season and with the Vikings possibly trailing the running situation looks less enticing.

Stefon Diggs led the team in targets (94) and yards (1,130) but should face Marshon Lattimore shadow coverage this week as the second-most expensive wideout on the Sunday FanDuel slate.

And finally, Kirk Cousins could see a volume passing game if the Vikings are playing from behind, but from a fantasy perspective he ranks fourth of the four quarterbacks going on Sunday.

Saints

Alvin Kamara FD 8200 DK 7400
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 19.6 DK - 22.71
He’ll likely be the chalk running back of the weekend. After going through a 10-game touchdown drought, Kamara punched the ball in four times total over the final to weeks, including a goal line carry against the Titans in Week 16. He hasn’t been a volume runner on the ground this season, but his 6.9 targets per game were the second-best among running backs after Christian McCaffrey. Expect something like 20+ total touches in the game, one they’ve been likely “saving” Kamara for with decreased workload at times over the course of the season. Minnesota is a good defense, 9th against the run, but that’s to be expected at this point in the season. As I said, Kamara will probably be the highest-owned running back of the weekend.

Michael Thomas FD 8900 DK 9300
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 23.36 DK - 28.71
Speaking of high ownership, stacking Kamara and Thomas is likely the cash-game stack you’ll the most this weekend. Thomas finished off a historic year with the most receptions in a season (149), eclipsing Marvin Harrison’s record which stood for 17 years. His 1725 receiving yards were 331 more than the next-closest guy (Julio Jones) and one could make the case that his nine touchdowns were actually a little run bad considering the overall volume. This is a good Minnesota secondary, but this is also Michael-freaking-Thomas. On a rather uncertain fantasy week, for cash games, there’s no reason to fade this guy.

Drew Brees FD 8500 DK 6600
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 20.04 DK - 20.65
It’s going to be tempting to play Brees in cash at home with the Saints having the highest implied total of the weekend. And that wouldn’t be wrong. This year, his six home games he completed 78% of his passes for 1,997 yards and 17 touchdowns. That put him at an average 332/3 in the Superdome. Dude just crushes here and has for his whole career since coming to the Saints. He looks like an ultra-safe play considering the circumstances and though I typically loathe to recommend non-running quarterbacks in cash, Brees could be the exception here.

Other considerations
Jared Cook could be the tight end option if the Eagles’ situation doesn’t sort itself out.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1.5)

The Eagles “snuck” into the playoffs despite losing two of their last three and finishing with a 9-7 record. But they won the NFC East and that was good enough. The Seahawks meanwhile willfully across the country to play in Philly, but have been awesome on the road (7-1) this season. It could be a grind-it-out game between two teams struggling with injury issues (which is putting it mildly).

Seahawks

Russell Wilson FD 7900 DK 6800
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 22 DK - 22.84
Wilson is a borderline cash play on this slate with the production a little all over the place this system mostly because the Seahawks were often firmly committed to the run. They might not have quite the luxury on Sunday considering the state of their running backs, making Wilson a viable option. Wilson finished sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards this season and third in passing touchdowns. Philly is significantly worse against the pass this season, ranking 16th in DVOA while they ranked 4th against the run. Look for the Seahawks to throw in this game and Wilson has a high floor in this matchup.

Travis Homer FD 6100 DK 5300
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 11.3 DK - 13.34
With Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny on the shelf the Seahawks went into emergency mode and employed Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch essentially off the street. The latter touched the ball 15 times and the former 12 with Homer receiving five targets through the passing game. Lynch scored the touchdown but Homer was significantly more effective 92 total yards. I like him as a cash game running back on this slate and think he sees enough volume to warrant the price.

D.K. Metcalf FD 6200 DK 6100
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 13.08 DK - 15.64
Metcalfe has double-digit targets in two of the last five weeks and from week 10 on leads the team in looks with 29 (Lockett had 23). In that stretch Metcalf 375 yards and two touchdowns with a 65% conversion rate. And for this weekend, Metcalfe will primarily line up against Rasul Douglas who is the Eagles worst-rated cornerback. Metcalf isn’t a must, but I do like him as a midrange option here.

Jacob Hollister is a decent good option at tight end if you are scared off the Eagles’ situation.

Eagles

The running backs
Miles Sanders FD 7000 DK 6200
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 16.77 DK - 18.48
Boston Scott FD 6600 DK 5800
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 12.12 DK - 15.22
This one is a tough situation and with DraftKings locking early Saturday (even with the late swap) we might not have a ton of clarity on Miles Sanders’ availability. As of this writing (Thursday evening) Sanders hadn’t practiced this week even if the speculation is that he will indeed play. If he’s playing at full health then he’s a very easy cash play on both the whole weekend and Sunday slates. He had 22+ touches per game in weeks 14-16 before getting injured early against the Giants.

If Sanders were to sit then Boston Scott instantly becomes the cheaper pivot and would be one of the best values of the entire weekend. After Sanders went down on Sunday, Scott came in and touched the ball 25 times with 19 carries and six targets. His usage would be through the roof if Sanders misses.

The tight ends
Zach Ertz FD 6900 DK 6000
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 0 DK - 0
Dallas Goedert FD 6700 DK 5200
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 14.8 DK - 18.45
Joshua Perkins FD 5500 DK 2900
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 5.19 DK - 6.98
This is one of the toughest calls of the weekend. What is the situation at tight end for the Eagles? They run so much 12 personnel that they can sustain two tight ends (fantasy-wise) in an offense. The problem is that we just don’t know about Zach Ertz. He’s dealing with a couple of injuries and really hasn’t practiced this week, leaving his status in doubt. And this is somewhat binary and cascading. If he plays, but not at 100%, how do we project Dallas Goedert? I tend to think the latter is somewhat safe almost no matter what considering how the Eagles roll. Ertz though is a tough call because of how banged up he is. It wouldn’t feel great running him out in cash at these prices.

And then there’s Perkins who would be a great DraftKings option if we knew Ertz was going to sit. This is a very fluid situation that we’ll monitor going into the weekend.

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