Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 1/13/20
It's Monday night in the NBA. We've got seven games on the schedule, and it seems as though the whole Association is questionable to play tonight. LeBron James, Domantas Sabonis, Anthony Davis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Jrue Holiday are just some of the question marks. With that in mind, we're going to give you some safe plays to consider at each position and follow up with one or two potential options who should come into play if they're called into action. Let's break it on down.
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Lonzo Ball FD - $6300 DK - $6900
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 40.76 DK - 42.11
Ball came an assist shy of a triple-double Saturday night in Boston, snagging a season-high 13 rebounds in the process. It was his second straight double-double and his fourth in his last seven contests, a stretch during which he's managed to pay at least 6X PPD (points per dollar) in all but one game. At this point, it seems Ball is a lock to pick up at least 30 minutes per game, and he remains underpriced across the industry. On a night with so much uncertainty, Ball feels like a sure thing for your cash game needs.
Derrick Rose FD - $6900 DK - $6700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 38.42 DK - 39.01
If you haven't been paying attention, you may not have noticed that Derrick Rose has been looking quite sharp out there lately. He's riding a streak of five straight games scoring 20+ points, and since January 1st he's scored 1.31 fantasy points per minute in just about 30 minutes per game. This has brought his price up in the short term, but in a pace up contest against the Pelicans who allow the fourth-most fantasy soring to opposing point guards, Rose should have little trouble paying value even at a slightly inflated cost.
Consider Ben Simmons (FD $8200 DK $8200), he vanished in the second half the other night against the Mavericks, but still managed to pay off 5.5X PPD, and will continue to be the heart of the Sixers game plan while Joel Embiid remains out.
Rajon Rondo (FD $4500 DK $3900) paid over 10X PPD with LeBron out of commission on Saturday. Rondo is actually questionable himself with a strained finger, but if he plays and LeBron's illness holds him back once again, you have to consider Rondo against a Cavaliers defense allowing over 50 fantasy points on average to opposing point guards.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $6700 DK - $6300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.31 DK - 35.55
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to impress in his sophomore season. He's scored at least 20 points in five of his last six games, most recently dropping 24 on the NBA's stingiest defense against opposing SGs, the Lakers. Tonight the matchup against the Timberwolves is significantly more favorable for SGA. The Wolves are playing at a top-five pace this season and are average defending the position, so it's fair to expect added production. The last time these two teams met just over a month ago, Gilgeous-Alexander posted a 29/5/2 line with a steal in 41 minutes. That was good for over 5.5X PPD and I'd like to think we can anticipate more of the same again tonight.
Devonte' Graham FD - $6600 DK - $7300
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.52 DK - 37.61
strongly consider Devonte' Graham tonight against the Trailblazers. Graham has put up a trio of stinkers heading into Sunday night, but that's brought his price down to the lowest point since mid-November and he gets the added benefit of a solid matchup tonight. Portland runs the eleventh fastest pace in the NBA and allows a top ten overall fantasy production. Graham was back on his game last night in Phoenix, dropping 22 points with eight assists and three steals. With production like that at these prices, we will surely want to have him in our lineups.
Tobias Harris FD - $6700 DK - $6600
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35.67 DK - 36.37
Tobias Harris notched just his fifth double-double this season on Saturday night in Dallas. Those should come much easier for Tobi over the next couple of weeks as the Sixers come to rely more heavily on him with Joel Embiid recovering from finger surgery. Harris sees more usage than any Philly starter with Embiid off the court, a scenario that gives him an additional 2.1% jump. With the added usage and production we can expect to see, it likely won't be long before we see the price on Harris begin to climb. In seven games since Christmas Harris has averaged 32.3 minutes per game for Philly, and 29.4 fantasy points per game. The matchup here isn't ideal, as Indiana can be tough on opposing wings, but with no Jojo in a game expected to come down to the buzzer, I'm comfortable taking a shot on Harris at these prices.
Brandon Ingram FD - $9100 DK - $8100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 46.23 DK - 47.47
Brandon Ingram floundered in the Pelicans blowout loss to the Celtics over the weekend. Before that, however, Ingram has been outstanding. Ingram saw 38 minutes in each of the Pelicans three games leading up to the Boston game and averaged 53.3 fantasy points over that time. Detroit's a bottom-five defense against opposing small forwards, allowing the sixth most raw points and assists, fourth-most rebounds, and third most steals to the position. Ingram should have no trouble getting his game back on track tonight and is a fantastic play in cash games, especially at the DraftKings price.
Malcolm Brogdon, who missed several games due to back issues, is now questionable due to illness for the Pacers game at home against the Sixers. If he's forced to miss then consider T.J. Warren (FD $5100 DK $5900) who has been outstanding since late December.
Al Horford FD - $6200 DK - $6800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 36.99 DK - 36.86
The loss of Joel Embiid opens up a ton of opportunity in the Sixers' frontcourt. This is exactly the reason why Philly brought Al Horford in from Boston. While Embiid nurses himself back from surgery Horford steps into the Sixers center spot and picks up a 4% spike in usage in the process. Horford ran the boards for 32 minutes in each of the last two games scoring 17 and 16 points respectively and paying between 6X and 7X PPD in each. The sites have yet to catch up on Horford's pricing relative to his potential for production, which allows us to consider Horford even in a tougher matchup, and especially in tonight's game against an average Indiana defense.
Kevin Love FD - $6800 DK - $6700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.73 DK - 38.18
I had to check the calendar and make sure I was writing this in 2020 and not in 2012. First, we talked about Derrick Rose, and now we're onto Kevin Love. Yes, that Kevin Love. Love has been quite good recently. He's scored at least 15 points with nine or more rebounds in three straight contests scoring an average of 39 Fanduel points per game in that stretch. What's crazy is that after those three straight games Love's price across the industry has actually gone down. I'm not sure why that is, but I'm not one to let something like that pass. If I can get a player, putting up some of his best numbers of the season while the price is on the decline, especially in a favorable matchup against a league-average defensive opponent I'm going to be all over it every time. Consider Kevin Love a fantastic option in all formats tonight.
Marvin Bagley FD - $4700 DK - $5800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.24 DK - 26.18
Marvin Bagley is close to returning from a foot injury that has kept him sidelined for the past eight games. If he's cleared to play he will likely face a minute limit, but I don't know that that means we can't consider him here. For starters, he's ridiculously cheap, the price is sitting at a season-low. Also, while he's only played nine games so far this season, in those nine games Bagley has averaged 25.49 FD points, good for 5.4X PPD on these prices. Lastly, Orlando is nothing to fear from a defensive standpoint. Keep an eye on the Kings injury report, if Bagley is activated, and especially if he's starting, then consider him as a sneaky value option.
Anthony Davis is questionable after missing two straight games with a glute injury. If he's ruled out once again then consider Kyle Kuzma (FD $4700 DK $5900) who has been tremendous starting in the brows place.
Nemanja Bjelica (FD $4900 DK $5500) has been nursing a sore ankle, but he's still been logging a lot of minutes (77 over his last two games). If you think those minutes are sustainable he's far underpriced for the expected production.
Andre Drummond FD - $10500 DK - $10300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 56.16 DK - 56.08
Andre Drummond is far and away the top projected raw point scorer tonight in our projection system and it isn't even close. The next closest player projects for 10 less points. Drummond was ejected from Saturday's game against the Bulls after just 19 minutes. Ignoring that game, Drum's running on a streak of eight straight games with a double-double. The league's top rebounder has been on a tear lately, and will likely be chalk, as the only top tier option whose status isn't up in the air. Considering all of the players listed as questionable tonight, it stands to argue that there will be more than enough value to go around at the other postions, so paying up for Drummond should not be a struggle. Fade Drummond at your own risk
Derrick Favors missed Saturday's game following an early exit Friday night due to a hamstring strain. He's questionable for tonight and if ruled out Jaxson Hayes (FD $4300 DK $4600) rises to the top of our NBA projection system.