Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 1/24/20
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Derrick Rose FD - $6900 DK - $7600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.23 DK - 37.72
Rose continues to have incredibly high usage for this Pistons’ team without Blake Griffin and has taken over the starting point guard responsibilities in the short term. That hasn’t translated to consistently high minutes but the shot volume is definitely there. He’s taken 17 or more shots in four of the last five games and is averaging 23 points and seven assists in that stretch. He’ll face a Memphis team ranked 22nd in defense and playing the fifth-fastest pace in the league. For Rose, this should mean continued production and he’s still something of a FanDuel value. The only issue is there have been some inconsistent minutes even in some closer games, but I’m not as concerned with that here.
T.J. McConnell FD - $4200 DK - $4900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 24.29 DK - 24.17
Malcolm Brogdon has already been ruled out for Friday’s game meaning the Pacers will need to fill a bunch of minutes at point guard. Though Aaron Holiday had seen this role in the past with Brogdon out, on Wednesday it was TJ who got the second-half start against the Suns. He was excellent going for 10 points and 11 assists in 27 minutes. It stands to reason he gets the start here against the Warriors and would instantly become one of the better punt values on the slate. Keep an ear out for this news over the course of the day.
If Trae Young has to sit out again, I’d feel okay going back to Jeff Teague (FD $4400 DK $4800) if he got the start again.
I also don’t mind JA Morant (FD $7100 DK $7000) going against the Pistons.
James Harden FD - $10800 DK - $11100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 60.61 DK - 63.3
There is already some cheaper value opening up on this Friday slate meaning we’ll have some money to spend on the top-tier of players. Harden should be at the top of that mountain. His price has stagnated some in the short term because of a blowout and some really terrible shooting. Over his last four games, Harden is 6-38 from three. He’s still been getting to the line a ton, and the volume is there, but the scoring dipped a bit. That’s fine by us with him coming at reasonable prices on both sites and especially a value on FanDuel. His rebounding and assist numbers dip some with Westbrook on the court and we need to account for that, but I still see Harden as a firm cash play against the Timberwolves who have a below-average defense and one of the fastest paces in the league.
Lou Williams FD - $6100 DK - $7400
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 35.69 DK - 37.37
Paul George will continue to sit out on Friday and that should mean extended run for Lou-Will. He’s struggled from three over the last two games, going three for his last 18 from beyond the arc. But he’s still getting up a ton of shots, taking 16 or more over the last three games and even got to the line 15 times against the Pelicans over the weekend. He’ll come off the bench with Kawhi Leonard back, but the Clippers could be without Patrick Beverley as well-meaning they’ll need Williams’ ballhandling even more. I still think there’s room for upside on these prices for the Clippers’ sixth man.
Speaking of sixth-men, I don’t mind Dennis Schroder (FD $5700 DK $6500).
T.J. Warren FD - $5600 DK - $6000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.63 DK - 31.38
With Brogdon off the court this season, Warren is one of the biggest beneficiaries seeing a 3% bump in usage and a 7% increase in assists. Really the scoring is where we are looking and last game when Brogdon left, Warren put up a team-high 18 shots and finishing with 25 points. The Warriors rank 23rd in defensive efficiency this season but don’t play a super fast pace. That being said, I expect Warren to dominate some of the offensive output for the Pacers in this matchup.
Will Barton (FD $6200 DK $7300) has played a lot of minutes with the Nuggets dealing with injury issues, but it hasn’t totally translated to a great amount of fantasy production over the last couple of games. That being said, if he’s going to dial it up it would be in this matchup against the Pelicans who run a super fast pace.
If the Celtics are playing shorthanded again on Friday then Gordon Hayward (FD $5800 DK $6800) would for be in play on both sites.
Markieff Morris (FD $4300 DK $4800) started last game for the Pistons and easily hit value at these prices even only playing 27 minutes. If he was running with the starters again then we could consider him in cash against the Grizzlies.
Jerami Grant FD - $5200 DK - $6000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.16 DK - 28.01
The Nuggets are really dealing with a ton of injury issues of late with Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Paul Millsap and Michael Porter all missing last game. It’s led to increased opportunity for Grant who’s taken 13 and 17 shots respectively over the last two games and scored 16 or more in each of the last three. The rebounding has been there as well, averaging seven boards a game over the last three and he’ll pitch in his share of blocks and steals. The price is getting a little steep on DraftKings, but on FanDuel, considering we need to roster two power forwards, he’s still a value play in a great matchup against an ultra-fast New Orleans team.
After Grant we are going to need more just information to really start picking out the value plays. Let’s run through some of the if-this-then-that scenarios on different players.
If Steven Adams sits again then Nerlens Noel (FD $4400 DK $5100) instantly becomes close to a must-play on both sites. Last game Noel played 30 minutes and recorded 14 points and seven rebounds.
Even off the bench, I’d go back to Christian Wood (FD $5000 DK $4700) if Andre Drummond were to sit again as well.
Jayson Tatum (FD $7500 DK $7400) left last game early with a groin issue. If he had a clean bill of health AND Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown sat again then I think I’d run Tatum in cash again. But that’s a lot of “ifs”.
Dewayne Dedmon FD - $3900 DK - $4600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 29.67
With Marvin Bagley out last game and Richaun Holmes still on the shelf, Dedmon got the start at center for the Kings. As a min-priced guy on DraftKings he became one of the best plays on the slate running 31 minutes and finishing with 13 points and 10 rebounds. He’ll get a similar opportunity on Friday with the Kings short on big men again. The price came up on DK, but he remains an incredible value on FanDuel. Really, he’s a cash consideration on both sites against the Bulls who are playing without much size on the interior as they deal with their own injury issues.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $9800 DK - $10200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 53 DK - 56.33
After sitting out for close a month with a knee issue, Towns is back to playing mostly full minutes for the Timberwolves. He “only” ran 31 on Wednesday against Chicago, but there was some foul trouble mixed in there. He had played 35 the game before. Even in those 31 minutes against the Bulls, KAT dropped 40 points on 16-24 shooting including 4-8 from three. When he’s rolling, Towns is among the very best fantasy forces in basketball and shouldn’t meet much resistance from the Bulls. Even with Dedmon as such a good value, it going to be real tough to pass up Towns on this slate.
I still like the upside on Deandre Ayton (FD $8000 DK $8500)
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