Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 1/29/20
We're looking at a short six-gamer for this Wednesday slate which is truly bizarre with Wednesday's typically being one of the biggest days of the week. We actually have a ton of bad defenses on display and that should make for a high-scoring night. With that in mind, let's get into our top DFS plays of the day!
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This is a tough one simply because of the Kobe Bryant situation. Kyrie Irving sat out the last game on Sunday after Bryant's passing and it's unclear if he'll even suit up here. One would have to believe that he will after practicing on Tuesday though and if he does, we expect him to put on a show with a heavy heart. This is a guy who's been feeling it recently too, averaging 47.2 DraftKings points per game across his last five fixtures. We love that against a Detroit team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency. We can't argue with the price either, with Irving playing at a $10,000 level throughout the year
It really doesn't make sense why these sites continue to keep Paul below $8,000. This guy has been balling out all season, averaging over 39 DK points per game over his last 27 fixtures. That's no surprise when you see that he's averaging 37 fantasy points per game for the season and that should allow him to cruise right through an 18th-ranked Kings' defense. In their one meeting this season, Paul collected 41.3 DraftKings points, despite shooting just 3-of-9 from the field. If he stuffs the stat sheet like he did then and reaches his typical 17.2 points, Paul could be looking at a 50-point gem.
With LaMarcus Aldridge missing this game, DeRozan should be in for a big night. With him off the floor, DD is averaging 1.3 DK points per minute while leading the team with a 33 percent usage rate. Getting a 33 percent usage rate out of a player this hot is a scary sight, with DeRozan averaging 25.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.2 steals over his last 18 games played. While Utah is obviously a tough matchup, they just allowed Eric Gordon (a shooting guard) to drop a career-high 50 points on Monday, proving that they're not invincible at that position.
Dillon Brooks FD - $5600 DK - $6200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.6 DK - 31.43
Brooks has quietly had a breakout season for the Grizzlies and it's clear that these DFS sites are slow to react to his emergence. Over his last 12 games played, Brooks has at least 29 DraftKings points in 10 of those. If you take out the two duds which happened to be blowouts, Brooks averaged 35.9 fantasy points per game in the other 10 fixtures. If he does that here, we're looking at nearly 7X value. The matchup is a good way to sustain that success, with the Knicks sitting 24th in defensive efficiency.
T.J. Warren FD - $5700 DK - $5800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 35.3 DK - 35.06
Warren should feel disrespected the way these DFS sites price him. He just continues to sit in this range right below $6,000 and he's been out-performing it for quite some time. Much like Brooks, he's only had two duds recently and they were both blowouts. If you take out those two fixtures, Warren has scored at least 25 DraftKings in 14 of his last 15 games while averaging 34 fantasy points per game in that span. What makes him attractive here is a matchup against the Bulls, with Chicago owning a 29th OPRK against small forwards according to DraftKings. Some may worry about Oladipo returning but that's more likely to affect a guy like Jeremy Lamb or Malcolm Brogdon.
Trevor Ariza FD - $3700 DK - $4900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 24.21 DK - 24.47
Ariza remains way too cheap on FanDuel. In his first two games with the Blazers, Ariza is playing 34 minutes per outing. That alone makes him hard to overlook, especially when you see that he's averaging over 25 fantasy points per game as well. His biggest asset today is the matchup though, with Houston playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA while allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards according to FanDuel. That fast pace and a potential matchup with James Harden should guarantee Ariza 35 minutes of action and that's awesome with more possessions in this game than usual. Not to mention, Ariza is averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in two meetings with the Rockets this year, posting those numbers in a much smaller role as a member of the Kings.
Danilo Gallinari has at least 32 DK points in 11 of his last 12 games, putting him in play against the Kings.
Domantas Sabonis FD - $8500 DK - $9400
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.15 DK - 48.54
There are two obvious power forward plays on this slate and it's these two guys. In fact, Sabonis is arguably the best play on the board. The reason for that is because we're talking about a dude who's averaging 44 DraftKings points per game for the season in one of the best matchups possible. Chicago currently allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season and Sabonis could be looking at an expanded role if Myles Turner sits out yet again. In the last game without him against the Blazers on Sunday, Sabonis accumulated 27 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists. That gives him an average of 53.3 DK points per game over his last three outings and all of that makes him hard to fade below $10,000 in such a premium matchup.
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $6400 DK - $6400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.12 DK - 35.32
JJJ was actually above $7,000 just a few weeks ago and it's really difficult to understand why his price has dropped. This is a guy who's averaging 31 fantasy points per game for the season and is averaging 34 DraftKings points per game since the beginning of January. That means his price should go up if anything and there's really no reasoning for the drop. What makes it even more mind-blowing is the fact that he gets a fantastic matchup. Not only does New York sit 24th in defensive efficiency, they also own a 23rd OPRK against opposing power forwards this season.
Julius Randle has been the Knicks best player and is definitely in consideration against a 27th-ranked Grizzlies defense.
Hassan Whiteside FD - $8900 DK - $8500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 48.56 DK - 48.21
Whiteside is simply a stud. Over his last 28 games played, Whiteside is averaging 16.1 points, 15.1 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game. That equates to a 47-point average on DK and that means that he should be about $1,000 more. The best part about using him might be the matchup though, with Houston playing at the second-fastest pace in the league. That means more possessions, rebounds and blocks which ultimately leads to more fantasy points. In their most recent matchup, Whiteside had 18 points and 18 rebounds while taking 16 shots, showing just how valuable that pace is to a guy like this.
Jakob Poeltl FD - $4400 DK - $5600
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 34.86 DK - 32.48
Poeltl is easily one of the best plays of the day. While facing Utah is obviously not an easy task, it's actually better for him. The reason for that is because they need his big body to oppose Rudy Gobert, with no one else on this roster capable of doing that. A situation like that pairs beautifully with the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge is expected to miss this game. That means Poeltl is a near guarantee to play 30 minutes, after dropping 40.3 DK points across 36 minutes in a loss against the Bulls on Monday without LA. This is a guy who's averaging about 1.2 DK points per minute for the year and as long as we get the playing time, Poeltl is a guarantee to provide huge value.
Dewayne Dedmon is risky but he should start at center for the Kings and has double-double potential anytime he plays 20-plus minutes.
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