Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 2/5/20
The trade deadline got a-rockin' last night with a four-team deal going down between the Rockets, Timberwolves, Hawks and Nuggets. It could have some fantasy impact for tonight's slate. There could be some late moves Wednesday as well and that always causes chaos for DFS purposes. That means players can get pulled in the middle of games and it could also open up some value right before lock. With that in mind, let's get into our plays of the day!
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It's strange that Young hasn't been given the price increase that he deserves. The simple fact is, he is the Atlanta offense. That's evident when you see that he ranks fourth in the NBA with a 33.9 percent usage rate while taking 20.6 shots per game. That's a truly absurd role and it doesn't even take into consideration that he's one of the league leaders with 9.0 assists per game as well. That has led to this 51-point DraftKings average and we absolutely love that sort of role and form against a Minnesota team who ranks 27th in points allowed. In their one meeting this season, Trae dropped 57 fantasy points against them despite shooting below 40 percent from the field.
With Conley being re-inserted into the starting lineup, he remains a nice value until he gets closer to $6,000. We're talking about a guy who's traditionally been a $7,000-player throughout his career and a bunch of injuries has lowered these prices to these enticing numbers. In his return to the starting lineup against Portland on Saturday, Conley collected 34.5 DraftKings points across 30 minutes of action. That's what we expected to see all season and we anticipate him continuing that form at full health. While Denver is certainly a tough matchup, these price tags limit that risk.
Spencer Dinwiddie FD - $7000 DK - $8000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 41.67 DK - 43.41
Caris Levert FD - $4500 DK - $5700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.69 DK - 34.8
These two guys are way too cheap. With Kyrie Irving still injured it leaves these two to feast. Both of these guys have to step up their play-making duties in the absence of Kyrie, needing to make up a 32 percent usage rate that Irving leaves behind.
The guy it really helps is Dinwiddie, with the former Colorado standout scoring at least 24 fantasy points in 33 of the 34 starts he's made this year while averaging 37.9 DraftKings points per game. While it's led to a nice floor from Dinwiddie, the absence of Irving has opened up a monster ceiling for LeVert. Without him on Monday, LeVert accrued 45.8 DK points across 32 minutes of play against the Suns. That makes both of these price tags truly mind-blowing and we haven't even discussed the fact that they get to face a Golden State team who sits 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Bruce Brown Jr. FD - $5000 DK - $4900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.02 DK - 27.33
With Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard all injured, Brown has stepped into a career year. The most recent injury to Rose is the piece that's really opened things up for him, with Brown averaging 37 DK points per game while playing at least 38 minutes in both fixtures since. Any guy playing 38 minutes in the $5,000-range is certainly in play, especially with so much production sitting on the bench. The matchup against Phoenix is the icing on the cake, with the Suns owning a 24th OPRK against SGs according to FanDuel.
Kelly Oubre Jr. FD - $6500 DK - $7000
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 38.97 DK - 38.83
It's strange that Oubre's price remains in this $6,500-7,000 range. This guy has been playing at an $8,000 level all season and injuries to Dario Saric, Aron Baynes and Frank Kaminsky has only added to his value. That's evident when you see that he has at least 28 fantasy points in 17 of his last 18 games while averaging 37.4 DK points per game in that span. That's pretty close to his season average and it makes these price tags all the more surprising. That's really all you can ask for against a Detroit team who sits 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $4900 DK - $5600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 26.77 DK - 28.54
With Luka Doncic out for the next week or two, Hardaway is essentially their go-to playmaker in the backcourt. That was crystal clear against a potent Pacers defense on Monday, dropping 38.5 DK points while taking 17 shots. We also love the fact that he ranks second on the team with a 25 percent usage rate with Doncic off the floor. If you look at the games that Doncic has missed, Hardaway has scored at least 36 fantasy points in three of the last four. That's all you can hope for from someone priced so reasonably and we love that he faces a Memphis club who sits 26th in points allowed and fifth in pace.
Draymond Green FD - $6600 DK - $6600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.69 DK - 34.13
Don't look now but Green is starting to play like the guy we loved when the Splash Brothers were healthy. There are two qualifiers that we always use with Draymond and they happen to be the defense and the nature of the game. Those are both positives here, facing a 19th-ranked Nets defense in a game that has a 7.5-point spread. If you look at the last 11 games for Green, he's scored at least 25 DK points in all nine that were decided by 20 points or fewer while averaging 35.9 fantasy points per game in those nine outings. That's the production of a $7,000 player and we have to continue to ride him when those two boxes are checked.
Serge Ibaka FD - $5900 DK - $6100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35.88 DK - 36.32
Ibaka has been a stud with Marc Gasol off the floor this season and we're going to continue to ride him if he sits in this $6,000-range. Between December 14 and January 17, Ibaka averaged 33 fantasy points per game. That's essentially the timetable that Gasol missed, with Ibaka averaging 30 minutes played and 13 shots a game in that span. That form has carried over to the most recent period without Gasol, with Serge scoring at least 30 DK points in five-straight headed into this matchup. Not to mention, Indiana surrenders the third-most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers this season and that's where we expect Ibaka to get most of his minutes here.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $10100 DK - $10600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 54.17 DK - 57.27
Towns had a small slump when he came off of injury two weeks ago but he's been pretty much unstoppable aside from that. In fact, Towns averaged 50.9 DK points per game over his first 23 fixtures and has a 50.8-point average over his last six games played. That omits just two games coming off of injury and the disparity between those two averages shows just how reliable this guy is. The reason we love him today is this matchup though, facing an Atlanta team who sits 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed. That doesn't even take into consideration that they own a 30th OPRK against opposing centers according to FanDuel. That was evident when Towns accumulated 60.8 DK points in their one meeting earlier this season.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $8400 DK - $8400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 45.19 DK - 47.09
The center position is the only real weakness on this potent defense, playing guys like Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter there. Orlando is surely privy to that notion and they'll have to feed their big man if they want to stay in this game. That was certainly clear in their first meeting, with Vucevic generating 41 fantasy points despite going just 6-of-18 from the field. Those 18 attempts tell us that Orlando knows this is their one advantage and he should get a similar workload here. That's huge with Vooch averaging 42.2 DraftKings points per game for the season.
Steven Adams is in play below $6,000, facing a 29th-ranked Cavaliers defense.