Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 3/8/20
There are a pile of NBA games today, and while they are spread out across the day we'll focus on a still robust 6 game Sunday main slate of NBA DFS action on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let's have a look at where we can find some value!
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Collin Sexton FD - $7000 DK - $7100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 36.48 DK - 37.92
The price has been rising on Sexton, but does it equal his current production? That remains to be seen. As of this writing he's on back to back 50+ fantasy point games (this is written before the Denver game has concluded), and to be honest this level of production might just be sustainable. And on these prices? He could be 80% as good and still be a great value. The Spurs are still a sneaky great match-up, allowing the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. While I suppose there is some risk of a blowout here, Sexton's 40+ minute rotations should give him plenty of opportunity to hit value here.
Aaron Holiday FD - $4000 DK - $4300
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.42 DK - 29.24
Speaking of value, Holiday's value just got cemented with the news that Malcolm Brogdon is week to week with a torn left quad. Holiday is playing a 33-35 minute rotation with Brogdon sidelined, and while there might be usage questions if some of the other pieces are healthy (Warren in particular) our model still sees Holiday as roughly a $5,000 player in league average match-ups. Dallas is something slightly worse than that, but the price is attractive enough that it looks to make up the difference.
Jerome Robinson is an interesting punt if you trust last game's minutes.
How much is too much for Norman Powell? If the last four games are to believe, the answer is: not this much. Powell has been nothing short of brilliant in his four games taking over for Fred VanVleet, and while you can't play him if FVV returns, there is no sign that that will be the case just yet. Powell is coming off his best game yet - a 37 point tour de force on 13 of 21 shooting against the Warriors. He's combined volume and efficiency at a star level, and I think the price still has room to grow against a Sacramento team that's been roughly league average against opposing shooting guards this season.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $7800 DK - $7300
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 42.1 DK - 42.34
DeRozan hasn't assumed the incredible usage that many suspected since Aldridge went down, and while that's been a little disappointing, there is still plenty to like here. First of all, his time of possession has increased (per stats.nba.com) since Aldridge went down, and it's shown in his assist numbers. With a hair under 9 assists per game over his last five games, DeRozan is finally contributing value beyond just his ability to score. If you view DeRozan as the point guard (which our system does), he's got the best possible match-up here, with Cleveland ranking dead last in the league at defending opposing point guards this year.
Harrison Barnes FD - $4800 DK - $4900
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 25.96 DK - 26.94
Pascal Siakam FD - $8100 DK - $8800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.44 DK - 42.35
Small forward is truly awful today. Let's break these games down, and you'll see why we wind up with Barnes and Siakam (and maybe Anunoby) by default.
Orlando vs. Houston: Aside from Danuel House, no one in this game really qualifies at the position.
Indiana vs. Dallas: Both Warren and Hardaway are questionable. Some value could open up here, but you'll need to follow closely before lineup lock.
Miami vs. Washington, and New York vs. Detroit: On FanDuel, the only players who qualify at small forward are back-ups or those that play back-up minutes.
Which leaves us with Barnes and Siakam. It's not pretty, but you'll at least get minutes and a reasonably high floor.
The We Got Nets boys jump on their Brooklyn Nets Podcast to discuss the firing of Kenny Atkinson.
Christian Wood FD - $7900 DK - $7900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 41.8 DK - 43.29
Wood was something of a chalk match-up in a much worse match-up against Utah on a bigger slate last night, so it's hard to believe that he won't see huge ownership in a fantastic spot against the Knicks. The only thing standing in Wood's way these days are his horrendous teammates, but given that the Pistons are just 5.5 point underdogs to the Knicks here we should be able to count on Wood to see his full 37+ minute rotation. The Knicks have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and Wood is looking fantastic as a result.
Bam Adebayo FD - $8100 DK - $8000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 43.38 DK - 44.15
We've mentioned a lot of cheap options, so I think we can make room to pay up slightly at both power forward positions. Adebayo is just a good old fashioned value here, averaging slightly better than 5x points per dollar on these prices on the season and heading into a truly terrific match-up with the Wizards. While they've tailed off from their historically generous pace, they are still playing the league's 6th fastest pace with the 2nd worst defensive efficiency. Get Bam in there, and only worry that Washington may have trouble keeping pace.
Thompson hopped right back into his normal rotation against the Nuggets last night, and I'd expect him to do the same here assuming he can give it a go on the second half of the back to back. He was steadily running up totals of 5x-7x points per dollar on these prices, and I think he has it in him to do it again against the Spurs here.
As for Turner, I'm keeping him in reserve if Drummond comes back and or Thompson gets some rest on the second half of the back to back after returning from a three game absence.
Also considered: Nikola Vucevic, but man, it's tricky. He could roll over the under-sized Rockets, or he could get run right off the court. Teams have gone both ways. For cash games, I'd say discretion is the better part of value with the Magic sitting as 8.5 point underdogs.