FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday, 8/8/20

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Point Guard

Malcolm Brogdon FD - $6600 DK - $6900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.02 DK - 35.03
Brogdon has looked locked in after his unplanned vacation, and has paid these prices handily in two of his three games in August. He came close in a tough match-up against the Magic as well. Today he'll draw the Lakers, and it's important to set aside regular season defensive metrics when analyzing this match-up. The Lakers have had trouble with quick point guards all season, and their best wing defender in Avery Bradley hasn't helped matters. I love Brogdon's floor, even if his ceiling isn't outrageously high.

Monte Morris FD - $4400 DK - $4400
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 24.92 DK - 24.66
Morris has been somewhat hit or miss since filling in for Jamal Murray, but the prices remains low enough that I'm still intrigued. He was bad against the Trail Blazers, but topped 30 FanDuel points in his two previous games against Portland and San Antonio. Malone behaved unpredictably with the minutes against the Blazers, and has stated that his main goal is to keep his key pieces healthy for the playoffs. But given how short they are on ball handlers I still think the plan is to leave Morris out there for 30+ minutes. At these prices, that's a good value.

Keep a close eye on the Miami Heat. Kendrick Nunn has already been ruled out, which would normally make it an ideal situation for Goran Dragic, but he's also listed as questionable. Whether it's Dragic or Herro, someone is going to get a lot of minutes and usage here.

Also considered: Damian Lillard on his current minutes and volume, but it's obviously a very scary match-up. Still, he's a reasonable option if you find yourself with money left over.

Shooting Guard

Paul George FD - $7700 DK - $8000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 43.73 DK - 45.2
The price just hasn't moved on George, and our projection system and lineup optimizer are puzzled. I understand if the minutes were a potential unknown heading into the bubble, but four games in and George is paying 34-36 minute rotations in close games. He's been great, too, with 37.7 FanDuel points in each of those contests. Portland is tied for the second worst defensive efficiency of any team in the bubble, and I they should have extra problems with trying to defend the Clippers' multiple angles of attack.

Victor Oladipo FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.16 DK - 35.58
Oladipo has averaged .9 fantasy points per minute this season, even as he's been trying to get healthy. He's looking healthy now, and playing 30+ minute rotations when the Pacers need him. They're being somewhat cautious with him on back to backs, but otherwise it looks like they are going to let him rip. With the newly feisty TJ Warren drawing more attention from opposing defenses this should be a favorable spot for Oladipo here, and you're looking at a guy who has floated$ $8k price tags when healthy in the past. I love the floor here.

Also considered: Luka. Milwaukee plays the fastest pace in the league, and this might be the spot you want to spend up if you can find some extra savings.

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard FD - $8500 DK - $8800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 50.94 DK - 51.14
Kawhi, like George, has demonstrated that he hasn't missed a beat in spite of a long NBA hiatus. If anything the chronically gimpy superstar has looked more spry than usual, topping 40+ fantasy points in every game. The Clippers seem more motivated to get their players into shape than manage their loads at this point, with Leonard playing 37 and 38 minutes in his last two games. Again, I love the floor here.

Cameron Johnson FD - $4500 DK - $5200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 27.18 DK - 28.19

Johnson has been soaking up huge minutes during this Suns epic bubble run, and putting up some excellent daily fantasy totals as well. He's averaged 37+ minutes and 32+ FanDuel points over his last three games, and he's doing it in a balanced fashion as well, chipping in 26 rebounds over that stretch. Miami isn't a great match-up with their 3rd slowest pace, but at these prices it's a simple price and opportunity mismatch.

Giannis is an interesting upside play but I don't see how you can trust him in cash given the Bucks' loosey goosey attitude with their starters.

Power Forward

Marcus Morris FD - $4300 DK - $4500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.06 DK - 28.9

Power forward looks pretty grim today, but I think Morris is a pretty significant bright spot. His last two games have been nearly identical. Check this out.
Against Dallas: 35 minutes, 16 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, 28.5 FanDuel points.
Against Phoenix: 35 minutes, 16 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 28.8 FanDuel points.

Phenomenal production on these paltry prices, and with Morris' role in the starting lineup looking secure it's hard to imagine why I wouldn't play him here.

The rest:

Okay, after Morris things get pretty tough. Michael Porter Jr. has been a revelation, but he's almost $8,000 now. Adebayo looks way too cheap for his season long production, but he hasn't hit 32 minutes since the bubble started. Anthony Davis is way too cheap for his season long production, but outside of his monster game against Utah he's been more like a $7,500 player. Ugh.

Then you have the Jazz situation. If they wind up playing some motley crew of back-ups you could get some good value with Georges Niang. After that, there really isn't a lot of obvious value. We'll need to stay extra alert to see if some great value presents itself.

Center

Deandre Ayton FD - $7800 DK - $7600
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 44.1 DK - 44.86

Like power forward, playing Ayton is more of something you do because you can get some semblance of safety rather than something you're excited about. For his own part Ayton is too cheap here. He averaged 40.7 FanDuel points per game this season, and seems to be sliding right back into his normal rotation. The Suns have won four straight games and look like they're taking these bubble games awfully seriously, so I figure I'm going to get a full portion of Ayton here, which should be worth these salaries. Like I said, nothing super exciting.

Kelly Olynyk FD - $4800 DK - $4900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 31.46 DK - 32.23
I've been fooled by Olynyk many times in my precious few journeys around the sun, but I might go back to the well again here. He's simply been incredible since the bubble games began, averaging better than 33 fantasy points a game en route to forcing his way onto the floor for the Heat. The only thing I worry about here is him getting run off the floor by Ayton, but Adebayo could potentially mitigate that here. He certainly looks incredibly safe here, but I can't quite give him the "auto cash game play" that the recent track record will suggest. Still, I think a bunch of people will roll him out there in cash, and I won't rule it out for us either.

The potential upside guys: Bol Bol, and Tony Bradley. Watch the Jazz situation, because if Bradley gets another start he's looking great.

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