Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/10/20
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It is a very interesting night for pitching in that we have a borderline ace priced over 10K and then a huge gap down to the next highest-priced pitcher. Let's start at the top with Corbin who draws a tougher matchup as the Nats are a slight -120 road favorite against the Mets Top 10 offense(10th in wOBA, 6th in wRC+). I am not overly concerned here as he is easily the most talented pitcher on the slate and despite giving up eight hits and three earned runs in his last start vs. the Mets last Tuesday tallied 21.4 DK points on the back of eight strikeouts. There is risk with almost every pitcher on this slate in some form or another so let's take the best of the bunch and get him into our lineups in all formats.
There are a few different ways to go with your SP2 tonight and Keuchel is the one that stands out the most. The first thing he gives us is innings as he has gone at least 5.1 in each of his first three starts and while it was a little concerning he had just three K's in his first two starts, he cleared that up striking out eight Brewers last Wednesday, going seven innings. Tonight, he and the White Sox are -148 favorites in a favorable matchup against a Tigers team who may be swinging some hot bats at the moment but are striking out over 29% of the time for the season. Under $8K on both sites, Keuchel is a top PTS/$ play on the mound in all formats.
Hosmer made his return to the lineup on Saturday and while he went hitless for the first time this season, the price is too hard to ignore for the consistency we are used to getting at the plate. The matchup may not be at the top of the list against Dustin May but the Padres offense has been en fuego to start the season sitting 2nd in runs scored so getting a middle of the lineup hitter in that lineup seems like a great play on a night when we are going to need saving for Coors.
Consistency is not a word we use with Olson but what he lacks in average he more than makes up for in the power department. He came into this unique 2020 season with 24 or more home runs in three straight seasons including a career-high 36 in 2019 and comes into tonight with four long balls in his last five games. Tonight he and the A's are a Top 5 team in terms of implied runs going up against Julio Teheran who posted a 6.12 xFIP and 1.44 WHIP against lefties last season. Probably not the top play for cash games but he and the A's could provide some lower owned upside for GPP formats.
Monday gives us another Coors slate and while it is usually hard to load up on the Rockies with their prices, we have some decent PTS/$ option tonight. It starts with Garrett Hampson who has been hitting leadoff for three straight days picking up hits in two of them. While the average(.250) is nothing to write home about, he is getting on base over 34% of the time and comes in with a 112 wRC+, 12% better than league average and that is park-adjusted. If he is back in the leadoff spot on Monday, he is in play in all formats, and one of our top PTS/$ plays on the slate.
You might remember from the start of the 2019 season when it appeared he was going to not only win the rookie of the year but possibly the MVP. Well, that didn't happen as he completely fell off the face of the earth but he is back in 2020 and while he won't provide consistency on a daily basis, he does provide that power upside and best of all, it comes at a discount on both sites. The Red Sox are also in a decent spot tonight against lefty Ryan Yarbrough who they lit up for eight hits and five runs just five days ago. You can definitely do worse for a punt play tonight and I would even consider him in cash to allow us to pay up elsewhere.
There are a lot of different ways to go at shortstop tonight including paying a premium price for the red-hot Trevor Story at home in Coors. That is probably not the best cash-game play tonight and when dipping down into the next tier it really comes down to what site you are playing. Despite starting off the season with an elite .341/.431/.641 slash line, Bogaerts is just the seventh most expensive shortstop on DraftKings.
I also love the A's tonight and it appears they will be more of a FanDuel play with their price tags on DraftKings. Semien is one of them who is $5K on DK but still sitting sub $3K on FD making him a great PTS/$ against Julio Teheran and the Braves.
Yoán Moncada FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B 4500
Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - DET
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.84
Looking at the early projections at third base, only one player has a higher projection than Moncada and that is Arenado in Coors. Moncada has been a huge part of the White Sox early offensive success posting a .305/.369/.508 slash line with hits in seven straight and 12 of 15 games on the season. That spells consistency and the fact he is the 5th and 8th most expensive player at the third base position on FanDuel and DraftKings puts him in the conversation as a top play on the slate from a PTS/$ perspective.
If you are paying up for pitching or bats in Coors you are going to need to find some value to make it work and the Rangers are one of those teams for me tonight. Kiner-Falefa has bounced back and forth between the majors and minors for a few years now but is playing a more regular role this season and is having a terrific start with hits in seven straight and 10 of 12 games. He hits near the bottom of the order which does lower his overall upside but for the price, the floor is solid making him a great value for cash games as a one-off play.
Charlie Blackmon FD - OF 4400 DK - OF 5800
Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - COL
FD - 15.15 DK - 11.6
Chris Owings FD - OF 3000 DK - 2B/OF 4000
Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - COL
FD - 11.37 DK - 8.76
I am going right back to Coors in the outfield and as I didn't mention the matchup above with Hampson, I will start there now. The Rockies will face Robbie Ray who looks completely lost to start the year with a 9.45 ERA and has given up six home runs on an ugly 68% flyball rate. Unfortunately for him, he now takes that into the best hitters park in the league where there have been 10.6 runs per game scored total this season, 6.1 per game of which have come from the home team.
That leads us to Charlie Blackmon who is easily the top choice on the team and one of the top plays overall. Since going hitless in the first two games of the season, he has tallied a 13-game hit streak which includes 10 multi-hit games. Worried about the lefty/lefty matchup? Don't be as he has posted an elite .409 wOBA and 141 wRC+ against southpaws since the start of last season. If you have the salary, he is most definitely my top play overall.
If you need some salary relief in the outfield but still want some exposure to Coors, Owings fits the bill. He will rarely break a slate and win you a GPP but he has been solid in his first season with the Rockies posting a .296/.367/.444 slash line going into Sunday(11 games).
José Martínez FD - OF 2900 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - BOS
FD - 9.39 DK - 7.21
In the same price range as Owings and likely a lot lower owned away from Coors is Jose Martinez who was brought in via trade in the offseason. The reason was his consistent bat in the lineup as he was a career .296 hitter with the Cardinals and gets on base around 35% of the time. The Rays are getting what they wanted as he comes into tonight with hits in four straight and has a .357 wOBA and 137 wRC+ on the season. On top of that, he has been terrific against lefties posting a .317 average, .400 wOBA, and 155 wRC+ since the start of the 2018 season. Lock and load in all formats if he is back near the top of the order.