Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Mayakoba Golf Classic

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    After a week off, the PGA Tour returns and heads to Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Overall, the field is fairly week in terms of what we have seen recently but is headlined by two stars in Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka. This also marks the final official PGA Tour event of 2020 with the next being the tournament of champions in early Janauary. Let's take a look at the scorecard, the most recent winners, and some key stats for this week and then jump into the picks.

    The Course

    El Camaleon Golf Club - Playa Del Carmen, MEX
    Par 71 - 7,017 Yards
    Greens - Paspalum

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Previous Five Winners(by season)

    • 2020 - Brendon Todd(-20)
    • 2019 - Matt Kuchar(-22)
    • 2018 - Patton Kizzire(-19)
    • 2017 - Pat Perez(-21)
    • 2016 - Graeme McDowell(-18)

    Top Stats in the Model

    Strokes Gained: Approach/Opportunities Gained

    Looking at the list of past winners or even the past leaderboards, you will notice none of them are bombers off the tee. The fairways are narrow but the rough is not very penal at all which puts a ton of emphasis on the approach shots. Strokes Gained: Approach is my top-weighted stat and can also be broken down into Proximity ranges which depend on the individual golfer you are looking at.

    Birdie or Better %

    The winning score here has been around -20 each year which naturally puts birdie or better % right near the top of my list.

    Par 4 Scoring

    There are only three Par 5's this week and they play as three of the easiest holes on course. In my opinion, it will be the Par 4 scoring that will separate players from the field and get them moving up the leaderboard on Sunday.

    Top Tier Targets

    Justin Thomas
    World Golf Ranking (#3)
    Vegas Odds (8/1)
    Draftkings ($11,400)
    FanDuel ($12,600)

    We get two golfers in the $11K range this week and both coming off back to back Top 10 finishes. I lean JT here as his form has been much more consistent as he has finished outside the Top 25 only twice in the last 11 events with a win and six Top 10's in that time, as well. He also has the edge statistically as he ranks 5th in SG: Approach, 7th in Fairway Proximity, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, and most importantly 1st in Birdie or Better %. I will have a piece of both in my GPP builds but much more Thomas as he is my top overall play this week.

    Will Zalatoris
    World Golf Ranking (#60)
    Vegas Odds (29/1)
    Draftkings ($9,200)
    FanDuel ($10,700)

    After an incredible run on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 where he picked up a win, 10 Top 10's and 14 Top 25 finishes in just 16 events he is now making waves on the PGA Tour. It started with an incredible T6 finish at the US Open and since he has added two more Top 10's(Corales & Shriners) and with a T16 at the Bermuda Championship he has earned temporary status on Tour. He ranks #1 in SG: Ball Striking on my sheet and while that is a small sample size, I will be riding that momentum in DFS this week in all formats.

    Mid Tier Targets

    Scott Piercy
    World Golf Ranking (#132)
    Vegas Odds (71/1)
    Draftkings ($7,900)
    FanDuel ($9,700)

    Despite sitting outside the Top 20 in salary on both sites this week, Scott Piercy comes in at #5 in my overall model. It starts with the form which has been trending since a missed cut at the Safeway Open as he has made five straight cuts since including Top 20's finishes in three of his last four. He now returns to a course he is obviously comfortable at as he has finished T26 or better in four straight trips including two Top 10's(2019, 2017). I have even seen and heard a lot about Sony Open being a correlation course this week and Piercy has also done well there recently. All things considered, Piercy is one of my top PTS/$ plays this week.

    Doug Ghim
    World Golf Ranking (#400)
    Vegas Odds (81/1)
    Draftkings ($7,400)
    FanDuel ($9,400)

    This story is an incredible one in that Ghim, without the pandemic, would be back on the Korn Ferry Tour this season after finishing 184th in the FedEx Cup standings last season. Instead, players were given an extra year of Tour status in which Ghim is fully taking advantage of finishing Top 25 in four of his first five events in the 2020-21 season. Statistically speaking, he ranks 13th in this field Tee to Green, 5th in SG: Approach, and 4th in Birdie or Better since the new season began. At these prices, he is in my player pool in all formats.

    Value Targets

    Brian Stuard
    World Golf Ranking (#176)
    Vegas Odds (161/1)
    Draftkings ($6,900)
    FanDuel ($8,400)

    Stuard doesn't jump off the page in any one area but does touch on all of them. Let's start with course history as he returns to the Mayakoba having made the cut here in six of seven trips including Top 25's in two of his last three and he also has two runner-ups here, albeit back in 2010 and 2014. The form isn't great but after three straight missed cuts, he has posted T50's in back-to-back events but what stands out is that he has gained a total of 6.4 strokes on approach and 3.1 strokes around the green. Sealing the deal for me is the correlation course history with Sony putting Stuard in my player pool for all formats.






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