featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 14

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Russell WilsonRussell Wilson FD 9000 DK 7900
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 24.27 DK - 24.76

After throwing for touchdowns on what seemed like every pass to start the season, Wilson has slowed down considerably over the last few games. In his last five, he has only six total touchdowns and five interceptions. The Seahawks are 2-3 in that stretch. But this is a bounce back opportunity against the Jets who’ve been destroyed through the air this year. They rank dead last against the pass and allow the second-most yards per pass attempt. They’ve allowed more than 25 DraftKings points to QBs in four of the last five weeks. This is a smash spot for Wilson who remains expensive but is still a cash game play this week.

Taysom HillTaysom Hill FD 7700 DK 6600
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 21.83 DK - 22.5

It looks like Drew Brees is still anoter week from returning meaning Taysom Hill will spend another game under center. Hill is QB6 in FanDuel over the last three weeks and that includes a game against Denver in which the Saints took their foot completely off the gas in the second half. In the last three weeks, he’s averaged 11 carries and 59 yards on the ground, scoring four touchdowns along the way. And he’s been efficient through the air when asked to put the ball up, completing 68% of his passes, finally getting his first throwing touchdown last week. The Eagles defense ranks 15th on the season, but are much worse against the pass at 24th in DVOA. This is still a fine time to grab Hill who has such a high floor because of the rushing ability.

Jalen HurtsJalen Hurts FD 6600 DK 5100
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 15.69 DK - 16.63

Let’s do this thing, shall we? Hurts will take over for Carson Wentz a week after it was speculated he’d take the reins for Philly. But after Wentz struggled once again, Hurts came in against the Packers and Doug Pederson waited only a day to name him the starter for Week 14. Hurts was inefficient, going 5-12 but did throw for 109 yards and a touchdown. He added, almost more importantly, 29 yards on the ground on five carries. It’s the rushing ability at this price point on DraftKings which is most encouraging. You can live with the lack of passing yards if he’s going to run the ball 7-8 times. It’s a risk, but I think he’ll have a long leash and the Eagles figure to be playing from behind in this one.

Running Backs

Derrick HenryDerrick Henry FD 9600 DK 8700
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 22.67 DK - 23.67

As predicted, the field landed on Dalvin Cook in the big money cash game slot last week, and it wound up being correct. This week we're leaning towards Henry, though, for what I think are obvious reasons. The most glaring is the match-up. Henry and the Titans are 7.5 point favorites over the hapless Jaguars, who are also the owners of the 10th worst DVOA against the run this year. Cook has the polar opposite match-up, going up against the Bucs and their top-ranked rush defense. Henry is also cheaper. While I think Cook is just better in a neutral match-up, the arrows are pointed firmly enough in Henry's direction that I think you have to go with him this week if you have the money to pay up.

James RobinsonJames Robinson FD 8000 DK 7500
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 18.31 DK - 20.49

Robinson has made the "also considered" category the last couple of weeks, and I think he's ready for the main stage. Occasionally we find a running back whose role is secure regardless of what the game script looks like (think Joe Mixon last year for the Bengals), and Robinson fits the bill this year. He's had 24+ opportunities in four of his last five games, and in the one where he didn't, he still had 19 touches in a 24 point loss to the Steelers. While we like Tennessee to cover the 7.5 point total this week, it shouldn't deny Robinson the chance to continue as one of the league's most consistent running backs this season. The QB play just isn't there in Jacksonville, and Robinson is really the best thing going. Tennessee is a middle-of-the-road run defense, and I'd be fine running J-Rob in cash this week.

David MontgomeryDavid Montgomery FD 6600 DK 6500
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 16.6 DK - 18.58

We thought long and hard about playing Montgomery in cash last week before ultimately opting for Devontae Booker at a similar price point. Whoops. Montgomery goes into this Houston game as a 1.5 point underdog, but the Texans have the 5th worst DVOA against the run this season. It's a little troubling that Cordarelle Patterson got 10 carries, but Montgomery still had 21 opportunities in this one, and he's very cheap relative to his peers. Montgomery also got the goal line carries last week, scoring two touchdowns in the process. Running back is pretty tough this week, and if you need to find a little savings, Montgomery is a reasonable cash game option.

Also considered: Myles Gaskin, though it's not as clear as it might be in any normal match-up. Gaskin was the highest owned running back last week with approximately 17 running backs inactive against the Bengals, but the status of each of those other options could change between now and Sunday. There's also the pesky match-up, with the Dolphins currently sitting as 7.5 point dogs to the Chiefs. Still, Gaskin is very cheap, and if he's the last man standing again I could see risking this in cash games.

Wide Receivers

Brandon AiyukBrandon Aiyuk FD 6700 DK 5400
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 14.54 DK - 17.54

After sitting out two weeks because of COVID protocols Aiyuk came back with a bang in Week 13 against the Bills. He went off for 95 yards and a touchdown. In fact, over his last four games, Aiyuk is averaging 10 targets, good for 6.5 catches and 94 yards. Chuck in three total touchdowns and you are just staring at a WR1 guy priced much lower than he should be. This isn’t a fantastic matchup for the 49ers WR corps against Washington but Aiyuk is coming at a value nonetheless.

Michael ThomasMichael Thomas FD 7300 DK 7100
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 16.64 DK - 20.69

Though the Saints moved from Drew Brees to Taysom Hill the production for Michael Thomas hasn’t seen any drop-off. In fact, he has 12, 6 and 11 targets over the last three weeks, with two games over 100 yards. The earlier season lack of production has kept Thomas’s price in check but he appears back to some of the target share we saw in his record-setting 2019. He’s likely to see Darius Slay shadow coverage this Sunday, but that isn’t all that scary. Slay’s cover rating this season is among the worst in the league. This should be another week to load up on Thomas in a plus matchup.

Keke CouteeKeke Coutee FD 5600 DK 5000
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 12.83 DK - 15.71

We wrote up Coutee as a cheap cash play in Week 13 with the assumption that he’d begin to see greatly increased target share with Fuller suspended and Randall Cobb hurt as well. That bore out and Coutee saw nine targets. He finished with eight catches for 141 yards in one of the best performances you’ll see from a borderline minimum play. The price comes up this time around and the matchup against the Bears isn’t ideal. But if he’s soaking up this many targets from Deshaun Watson then the price isn’t reflective of the opportunity.

You can also continue considering Brandin Cooks who still leads the team in targets. And then there is Chad Hansen who actually saw the most snaps of the wide receiver corps. He finished with a 7/101 line on eight targets. It’s speculative because there isn’t much track record, but he’s also incredibly cheap.

Corey DavisCorey Davis FD 6800 DK 5700
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 14.14 DK - 17

This one is a little less about Davis’s Week 13 and more about the Titans possibly getting even thinner in the wide receiver corps. Jonnu Smith sat out last week and now AJ Brown is questionable with an ankle injury. Additionally, Adam Humphries is already ruled out for Week 14 with a concussion. The output is up and down for Davis but he does have three games with double-digit targets. And this week he gets one of the league’s best matchups against the Jaguars who rank second-to-last against the pass. Let’s keep an eye on the injury situation for the Titans this week.

Tight Ends

Travis KelceTravis Kelce FD 8200 DK 7400
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 17.96 DK - 21.83

It's rare that a high priced tight end clear the difficult bar of being better at the same price than high end wide receivers, but I think it's safe to say that we're there with Kelce. In reasonable game scripts he's getting 10-13 targets a game, is the first look in red zone packages, and has averaged well over 100 yards a game receiving over his last five. There are other options we can consider here, though, so let's have a look.

Mike GesickiMike Gesicki FD 5700 DK 4500
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 11.2 DK - 13.62

Gesicki looks like a pretty run of the mill tight end if you zoom out over the whole season, but there is reason to believe that last week's burst wasn't a fluke. Tua is very much in the "figuring it out" stage, and last week Gesicki was by far his favorite receiver, both in terms of overall target share and the effectiveness of the targets. He connected with Gesicki on 9 of 11 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown. He was a combined 17-28 for 208 yards to his other receivers. If you can't afford Kelce this week, Gesicki is a fine consolation prize.

Keep an eye on Jonnu Smith's status. If he sits, Anthony Firkser could be the highest owned tight end once again after owning that honor last week.

Defense / Special Teams

CowboysCowboys FD 3500 DK 2400
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 6.31 DK - 6.31

Miami was the highest owned defense last week at a price point $1400 higher than this, and while Dallas is a significantly worse defense, the Bengals are such a bad offense that this doesn't feel bad at all. The Cinci offensive line is just so bad opposing offenses can't help but get a couple sacks off of them. Allen and Finley combined for 2 picks last week as well. The Bengals' 20 point implied total is the second lowest on the slate, and paying next to nothing for the defense facing them might be too good to pass up.

SeahawksSeahawks FD 5000 DK 3000
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 8.29 DK - 8.29

We'd be remiss to not at least mention the Seahawks here, especially on DraftKings where the price difference isn't quite so large. While the Bengals have the second-lowest implied total of the week, the Jets have the lowest (by far) at 16.25. There is no joy in Jersey right now, and as the Jets barrel toward a historic season of futility grabbing the defenses opposing them can't be too terrible a strategy. I don't believe we'll wind up with the leftover cash to do this on FanDuel, but if some value opens up on DraftKings playing the Hawks almost certainly has to be the highest floor option on the board.








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