Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 12/29/20
We've had about a week of basketball to research and it's been a very interesting start to the season. There have been numerous injuries and a lot of resting in the opening week and that's expected to be the case for the whole year. Luckily, we don't have much in terms of back-to-backs here, so, resting shouldn't be a huge issue. With that in mind, let's break down this Tuesday slate.
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Curry has always been a stud but he should go crazy this season with Kevin Durant gone and Klay Thompson injured. That's certainly been the case in the early going, posting a 31 percent usage rate while taking 21 shots a game. That usage is big news for a dude who might be the best shooter of all-time and his 44 fantasy points per game thus far might end up being his floor from here on out. We love the matchup against Detroit too, as we should have a competitive matchup against one of the worst teams in the NBA. Golden State playing close games is arguably the most important aspect of Curry's value.
Payton was downright dreadful in his first two games of the season but his stellar performance on Sunday shows the sort of potential this kid has. Elf provided 27 points and seven assists in that gem and he's plenty capable of providing fantasy lines like that regularly. In his final 21 games last season, Payton averaged 35.6 DK points per game. That obviously makes him a huge value in this $5,000 price range and we love that he faces a Cleveland defense surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards.
Russell Westbrook has been amazing in his first few games with the Wizards and is another great pick with his stat-stuffing ways.
It's strange to see LaVine this cheap on FanDuel. The star for the Bulls was usually closer to $9,000 for most of last season and we definitely want to exploit this mispricing. Much like Curry, we just love this guy's usage. He's one of the league leaders with a 33 percent usage rate, providing 53 DK points on 23 shots in his most recent outing. That's the stud that we saw through most of last season and we can't overlook the fact that he faces a Wizards team that owned the worst defense in the NBA last season. In four games against them last year, LaVine had at least 42 fantasy points in all of them, averaging more than 50 fantasy points per game.
Donte Divincenzo FD - $4400 DK - $4800
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.45 DK - 26.55
DiVincenzo has taken the starting shooting guard job in Milwaukee and it's done wonders for his fantasy value. In his first three games of the season, DD is averaging 23 DK points per game across 24 minutes of play. While that might not sound too special, it's really all you can ask for from a player south of $5K. Two blowouts have limited that production too and if he just continues to provide fantasy production at that per-minute pace, DiVincenzo will remain one of the best values out there.
Larry Nance Jr. FD - $5500 DK - $6300
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.93 DK - 32.32
Nance has been a breakout player for the undefeated Cavs this season and it's a wonder why DFS sites haven't taken notice of his majestic play. If you take out Nance's one dud in which Love played, Nance is averaging 13 points, 8.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.0 blocks across 34 minutes of action in the other two outings. That equates to over 40 fantasy points per game and it means that Nance should be at least $1,000 more on both sites. That alone makes him a great option but the matchup against the Knicks is the icing on the cake. In fact, New York was one of the worst defenses last season and currently sit 20th in efficiency ratings this year.
Tyler Herro FD - $4500 DK - $5700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27 DK - 28.8
Herro got a lot of publicity in the playoffs a couple of months ago and rightfully so. The main issue with him this year is the fact that he had to play behind guys like Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler but with JB out here, Herro should handle the ball a lot more. With Butler off the floor this year, Herro is posting a 25 percent usage rate which is actually lower than it was last season. A player this talented getting that much usage is hard to overlook, especially with the increase in minutes he'll likely be receiving in this game. He killed Milwaukee in the playoffs last year too, averaging over 27 fantasy points per game in their final four meetings.
R.J. Barrett is in the midst of a breakout season and is one of the best options at small forward.
Julius Randle FD - $7700 DK - $8200
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 40.33 DK - 43.3
Randle has been ridiculed in fantasy circles but he's proving all of those guys wrong so far this season. In his first three games of the year, Randle is averaging 23.7 points, 10 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. That looks even better when you consider that he's played at least 35 minutes in all three games while leading the team with a 26 percent usage rate. Minutes are guaranteed with a coach like Thibs and it'll do wonders for Randle all year. The best part of this play might be the matchup though, with Cleveland owning one of the worst defenses in the NBA last season.
Naz Reid FD - $4500 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.99 DK - 30.33
Reid might be used in a ton of lineups today but that doesn't mean he's a bad play. On the contrary, he's one of the best chalk plays on the board. The reason for that is because he's going to be starting for Karl-Anthony Towns, who fractured his wrist over the weekend. In his first start, Reid provided 28 DK points across 27 minutes of action. That's the dude we saw last season, with Naz averaging 28.4 fantasy points per game across 25 minutes in his 11 starts for Towns. That's a godsend from a player priced so reasonably and it's simply hard to fade Naz until he sees a price increase.
With power forward being one of the weakest positions on the slate, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great lineup foundation.
Thomas Bryant FD - $5200 DK - $6800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.6 DK - 34.31
This is one of those cases where we love TB on FanDuel but don't really want to use him on DraftKings. The $1,600 price difference is the big reason why and it's hard to understand why FanDuel is keeping him so cheap. We're talking about a dude who's averaging 32 FD points over his last two games which is pretty close to what he averaged last season. That's a huge total from a $5,200 player and the $6,800 price tag on DK is more indicative of where it should be. We can't overlook the matchup with Chicago too, surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers last season. They're allowing the third-most so far this year.
Mitchell Robinson FD - $4900 DK - $5600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 35.21 DK - 31.87
We've always loved Robinson as a player and now that the minutes are there, it's just a matter of time before he becomes a fantasy stud. Getting 34 minutes on Sunday is hopefully a sign of things to come, providing at least 24 DK points in back-to-back games. Those 24 fantasy points are very low for a guy who averaged 27 DK points per game in just 23 minutes per game last season and he could average 30-plus in this expanded role. That would essentially equate to nearly 40 fantasy points per game if he continues to play 34 minutes and that would make him an amazing value in this $5,000 price range.
Brook Lopez is below $5,000 on both sites and that's way too cheap for a guy who averaged nearly 30 fantasy points per game last season.
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- Stephen Curry: AP Images