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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 1/1/21
Welcome to 2021! Things can't get any worse than last year, so, things are already off to a good start. There's nothing better than sitting at home and watching basketball after a long New Year's Eve and we've got some great picks here to kick the year off right! We've got a plump 10-game slate ahead of us, so, let's go ahead and get into it!
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Point Guard
Stephen Curry FD - $9900 DK - $9600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 50.11 DK - 53.22
Curry is going to remain in these articles until he gets the $10,000 price tag he deserves. The reason we believe he's a five-figure player is his role, averaging 20 shots a game while leading the club with a 31.4 percent usage rate. Those are some of the highest usage numbers of his career and it's just a matter of time before he starts dropping 50-point games at ease. Facing off against Danian Lillard is a good way to start, with Lillard being one of the worst defensive point guards in the NBA. Steph has scored at least 42 DK points in seven-straight games against the Blazers en route to a 52-point average.
Raul Neto FD - $4500 DK - $3400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 4.53 DK - 4.47
With Russell Westbrook expected to sit in the second half of a back-to-back set, the Wizards are going to be all over this article. Neto is actually the direct beneficiary, starting at point guard for Russ. While he's relatively unproductive when Westbrook plays, Neto proved in his one start that he can go beast mode when given the opportunity. In fact, Raul collected 22 points, four rebounds, five assists and three steals across 32 minutes of action in that rare start. That equates to 41 fantasy points which would be an absurd 12X value on DraftKings at this price tag. Obviously, 12X is one of the best rates you'll see all season.
With Atlanta owning one of the worst defenses in the NBA, Kyrie Irving is an intriguing option.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal FD - $9500 DK - $9400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 45.2 DK - 46.6
If we want to exploit Westbrook sitting, the best play of the day is Beal. The reason for that is because he sees the biggest increase in usage, posting a 35 percent usage rate with him off the floor. Beal is also averaging 1.4 DK points per minute when Russ sits which would equate to 54 DraftKings points if Beal plays the 39 minutes he played in the one game without RW. Scoring 54 fantasy points is not that rare for a guy like Beal either, dropping at least 42 fantasy points in all four fixtures this season. We obviously don't mind him facing a bad Minnesota team either.
Malik Beasley FD - $5200 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.01 DK - 33.37
The Timberwolves are missing their top-scorer in Karl-Anthony Towns and it's opened up the door for Beasley to get buckets. Where that's really evident is in his usage, providing a 23 percent usage rate with KAT off the floor while taking at least 16 shots in three of four games this season. There aren't many players below $6K doing that and it makes him even more enticing when you consider that Washington had the worst defense in the NBA last season and are currently 24th in efficiency this year.
With so many injuries in Memphis, Desmond Bane is an interesting option after playing 32 minutes on Wednesday.
Small Forward
Kevin Durant FD - $9400 DK - $9100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 47.53 DK - 48.59
Many people were worried about KD's return from an Achilles tear but he's quieted any skepticism with his stellar play in the opening week. Despite playing the lowest minute total of his career (32.5 MPG), KD is averaging 28.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. That equates to 46 fantasy points per outing, with Durant scoring at least 39 DK points in all four fixtures this year. That floor makes it surprising that he remains below $10,000 on both sites and it's scary to think that his minutes will only go up as the season progresses. Not to mention, Atlanta currently sits 27th in defensive efficiency.
Josh Jackson FD - $4800 DK - $5200
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 31.55 DK - 31.76
Jackson is one of those troubled athletes that seems to travel from team to team but it looks like he may have found a home in Detroit. After playing well off the bench the first two games, JJ has been inserted into the starting lineup the last two. He's dropped at least 34 DK points in both of those outings, averaging 22 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. More importantly, he's taken at least 14 shots in three of four games this season and he should continue to play big minutes for this over-sized roster. Boston is far from a scary defense right now too, ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
If Otto Porter starts for the Bulls again, he's a great option after a dropping 55 FanDuel points on Thursday.
Power Forward
John Collins FD - $7000 DK - $7200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.73 DK - 33.44
Collins was downright terrible in his first three games of the season but it lowered his price to a point that we can't avoid. This is a dude who was well into the $8,000-range last season and it's just a matter of time before he gets back there this year. His most recent start was a good indicator of that positive regression, collecting 48 DraftKings points against these Nets on Wednesday. He did that with only one assist, one steal and no blocks, as he could have easily gotten 60 if he provided the peripheral statistics we expect from a guy this talented. Going off against the Nets is no surprise when consider that they rank 29th in rebounds allowed which happens to be Collins specialty.
PJ Washington FD - $6300 DK - $5600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.96 DK - 32.22
While many people believe that Bismack Biyombo is the biggest beneficiary to Cody Zeller's injury, it's actually P.J. That's truly evident when you see that Washington has at least 37 DK points in two of the three games that Zeller has missed. What it's really done is opened up the lane, with Washington providing 20 rebounds, three steals and three blocks in those two outings. Those hustle statistics are a godsend from a big man like this and it seems likely that they will continue against a Memphis team that ranks 28th in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency.
Robert Covington is still way too cheap in the $5,000-range and a matchup against the Warriors could be the thing that gets him going.
Center
Thomas Bryant FD - $5800 DK - $6300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.08 DK - 34.85
Bryant is the final piece to our Washington stack. Much like the rest of the team, TB performs much better with Westbrook off the floor. The main reason for that is because Westbrook swallows up shots and rebounds for many of these guys which ultimately leads to fantasy points. With Russ off the floor this season, TB is averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. If he plays his usual 30.5 minutes at that rate, Bryant should provide about 34 DraftKings points. That's really all you can ask for from a player in the $6,000-range, especially when you consider that Bryant had a season-best 37 fantasy points in the one game without Westbrook. Not to mention, Minnesota surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Daniel Theis FD - $4300 DK - $4600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 25.56 DK - 24.63
It's hard to necessarily get excited about using Theis but he's too cheap right now. The thing that makes him a great GPP option is his per-minute production. In fact, Theis is averaging 0.9 DK points per minute, dropping 28 fantasy points across 19 minutes in his most recent game. That sort of upside is hard to find from a player sitting around $4,500, as he could easily have a monster game if he gets the 25 minutes he got for most of last season. His big body is going to be particularly necessary in this matchup, with the Pistons seemingly having nine big men in their rotation. That really hasn't helped their defense much though, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
If LaMarcus Aldridge is out again, Jakob Poeltl is one of our favorite value plays of the day.
